SMU

Im off out all- Concentric eye wall complete- watch for re-intensification from next advisory- Possibly back to Cat 5 in the next few hours..... Steve

Hi Mondy- The situation you are describing is Similar to a Channel low in a northerly rather than an Easterly- How many times has a Lp moved close to the SW of Wengland expected to More North when it actually moves East- I dont think the Easterly turn will be that severe- but certainly Dallas & places could be spared the worse- however thats only at the expense of somewhere else- S

LOL I glanced at your post yesterday scrolling down to find a link and thought- I dont remember wrinting that- ALL posts are welcome whatever the scientific content- Steve

Morning All- Latest advisory out from NHC & NOAA say the track continues to change, looking at the Ensemble tracks from GDFL, NOAA, UKMET, GFS etc sees a More Northerly Vector coming into play- the upper level ridge doesnt look like holding long enough to keep the path westerly towards Houston - but more Up towards Louisiana- This means that the lowlying areas slightly further along to the East of the Gulf coast can expect to see the full force of the storm ( Its north-eastern) quadrant- The outer rand bands are just beginning to effect New-orleans, with the outflow just beginning to become more apparent- Concerns are growing that if Rita should track further North then the levvies over New Orleans will come under further threat- The current rise in pressure to over 900 Mb could be concentric eye wall development- but this may be bad news as the hurricane 'COULD' come back stronger if when the secondary eye wall develops there still enough latent energy heat from the sea surface- SST's are more condusive to less weakening the further north & east Rita hits- We will have to see the developments over the next 24 hours to see if this is the case- however there is no more talk of Cat 3 landfall- just cat 4 or cat 5- whatever the case- just looking at the cloud tops- they were at -80C last night- now slightly warmer with dryer air- All of the risk areas have substantial oil rig populations that are closing down- with the price of crude expecting to rise dramatically- as well as this Louisiana is quite lowlying and the storm surge could well sweep further inland.... Whats got to be also noted with the storm surge is the current circualtion driving the surge is catagory 5, however when the Hurricane begins to weaken to Cat 4 this will NOT be enough time to tranfer that downgrade into the circulation and energy back to the Sea- The MAX storm surge- some 20 feet will NOT diminish before landfall.... Whatever way you look at this its a lose lose situation..... regards Steve

Steve

Good post there AFT- Based on that premise the north atlantic should get a good stir this week.... S

Good afternoon All- I dont wish to put a dampner on this thread that is moving along nice- however- I think it would be a good idea to put things into Perspective- I remember ( In a heated arguement) my Mother told me " The world doesnt revolve around you!! " and this can be said of the GIN corridoor and SST's to the North of us- In terms of Anomalies its good to see -VE ones to the north as they have some a(although minimalish) modifications on boundry layer temps in Northerly incursions- However- What no-one on here has is enough backgorund information on SST's to provide an account on how they will effect this winter based on the fact that the whole globe is effected by lower Scale regional Anomlies- The 2 biggest 'hitters' probably in terms of global perspective is the ENSO & PDO- both having large scale effects on global patterns- Now this year the ENSO is looking fairly neutral suggesting that is will play little or no major part in proceedings- However the PDO with lesser background information hasnt really got a seasonal forecast because there hasnt been a full proof way of forecasting the changes of it yet- The correlation so far though in terms of effecting the uk through teleconnections is-( with limited knowledge) ive clipped a bit from my Ode- With SO many anomalies effecting the Northern hemisphere this year its a lttle on thin side to make any forecasts JUST based on whats happening in one staright of water- I do accept the effects that the GIN corridoor has on Low pressure systems- However there are larger forces at work that mean when the time comes to winter these anomalies WONT be a factor in determining the Local of the jet stream..... regards Steve

Sorry mate some of us have had a hard day at the beach... Anyway- lets hope that devestation is as minimal as poss- S

Live TV channel feed as it happens... >>>>>>> Link- S

New Orleans Weather Forum- >>>>>>Forum you will be able to read and browse as things develop- info through 'our' channels will never be as quick as some wort of 'live' feed- S

SOME VERY worrying hours lay ahead for the strike zone area- the outer rain bands beginning to affect coastal areas- Courtesy of NHC- click this link >>>> ( set the animation speed as fast as poss changing the tool bar- what an amazing site-) AWSOME run loop of Vis sat NHC predicted track- Accuweather Update- Real time update Regards Steve

I see the 18z is keen to start developing this..... Steve

Soon to be broken this coming Winter by the developing 1090mB Greenland High.... heres hoping..... S

No- Grey Grey area that one.....( I doubt anyones conducted a survey of how Ice levels/melt effects the BI) I messaged Atmos a few times and we had discussed it- only to the level of if there is a decline then it has usually recovered by the next year- If i remember the rightly ice coverage has had a greater decline against the Norm over the western side of the Artic as opposed to the Eastern Side- 'Perhaps' Its all to do with the intense WAA pumped up the South and western side all summer Long- Im guessing/Hoping that this winter will continue the theme of very Low MSLP averages over the western side (against the norm) to assist in the displacement through CAA to the South & South-west- You never know- Regards Steve

Agreed- It will be interesting if we get any Polar Low scenarios this winter- I will be looking for a 500 HPA temp of about -35C over the shelf and that long drag of northerlies across the Country- With a High frequency of Strong Driving Troughs Cutting through Scandi recently I would say we have a good chance of seeing at least one this Winter- Eastern Ireland, The North west and Sometimes the Home Counties do well out of those- Regards Steve

Hi Steve- In JB's post he ( I think once I translated his post into English) mentions that the Neutral Signal in the pacific & the +VE signals across the atlantic will ASSIST the prospect of a negative NAO- A Little confusing for those that thought that colder SST's would assist the development of the Greenland high..... S

Autumn thread S

Interesting you mention that Shuggs... If you look at my post in the Autumn thread you MAY not have much longer to wait to see those artic winds digging in bring Cold snowy weather... S

EVo- FI refers to ' Fantasy Island-' The often referred to part of the charts between the hours of T180- T384- always over the rainbow...... and far far away- S

A quickie on the abbreviations... WZ- Wetterzentrale ( German website for viewing charts) NAO- North atlantic oscillation PNA- Pacific North american SOI./ENSO- El-Nino Southern oscillation WAA- Warm air advection CAA- Cold air advection 528 DAM- is the line drawn on the maps that equated to the temperature ( MAX) that snow can be often observed at GFS- Global forecasting sytem METO- Met office model UKMO- United kingdom Met office ECM( Or ECMWF) European centre of medium range weather forecasts.. ASL- Above sea level- PPN- Precipitation Ensembles- 10 GFS model runs- Control run is the one seen on the models SST'S sea surface temperatures PM- Polar maritime air MT- Maritime Tropical air PC- Polar Continental air LRF's - Long range forecasts MRF's- meduim range forecasts Trough- Upper level equivalent to a surface Low pressure Ridge- Upper level equivalent to a surface High pressure Blocking- The jet stream being moved AROUND CLOCKWISE a large area of high pressure. Regards Steve

What a great post TM- Im glad I started this thread now as obviously I wasnt the only one looking out of the window on those winter nights when everyone else was asleep..... The more I think about the more I miss those wintry nights....... regards Steve

Evening all- Thought Id pop a little message on here to evoke memories of what we used to do as children when we thought it was going to snow- Heres my memories- I was always fanatical about snow,my parents used to stand bemused at this scruffy 8 year old standing looking out of the window on the landing waiting for it to snow...... It was an obsession- every day at 12pm I would have the European weather forecast recorded onto video for me ( Usually forecast by Bill giles) so I could view the impending pressure charts. I had all sorts of second hand temperature guages in the garden giving me that vital information- Then sometimes the news that id been waiting for- " A blast from the East was coming" The excitement was amazing.- Finally the day came where the showers would come.... If it was dark I used to look to the east over shooters hill to see if the ' BLUR' level was getting worse- The blur level being the more shooters hill was blurred from sight the heavier the snow was!!!!!! 1987 was the best- Sent home from school and the heavy snow continued to fall- it lay 1ft deep on the dustbin outside- and the temp that day peaked at -5C- all in all some great memories..... Has anyone else got any funny memories of what they used to