A Winter's Tale

A very fine line between 10cm and 35cm for here.

The cold spells of mid Dec 2009-mid Jan 2010 and late Nov-early Dec 2010 remain the benchmark for cold spells as far as I’m concerned. Snow depths more 10cm, lying snow and below average temps for over two weeks, ice days, -10C minima in the cities with -20c in the highlands. Since then there have been 10 snowfalls of 2 inches plus, 4 with depths 3 inches +. There have been only 4 occasions with 2cm+ on the ground for 5 days (Jan 2015 (2), Jan 2018, Feb/Mar 2018). Jan and Mar 2013 and Jan 2021 have been the only prolonged cold spells of note. January 2021 has been the only occasion temps have dropped below -10C at Glasgow whilst -15C has been pretty rare in Scotland over the last decade. This winter has certainly been closest to 2010 (09/10 in particular) in terms of how cold it has been in general. Hopefully this cold spell will rank alongside those in 2010 which would put 2020/21 as a winter up there with category as 09/10 and 10/11.

Another pretty heavy snow shower has just rolled through

If the euro4 snow predictions turn out to be fairly close to the mark then I suspect we’ll see the amber warning cover a wider area and I’d be shocked if we don’t see a red warning in the areas projected to have 30cm+. The met office are currently going for 25cm at best in the amber area which could turn out to be a massive underestimate. I hope members in the amber warning area have their cameras and metre sticks at the ready (I don’t think a ruler will be big enough in some places!). Euro4 suggests widespread 10-30cm in central Scotland. I think Bearsden in is in the 20-25cm zone which is close to the Beast from the East. I’d be more than happy to have half of what’s being modelled which would be an excellent event.

No wonder the met office have issued an amber warning. I still think the snow depths they’re predicting are on the conservative side. Annoyingly I’m just outside the warning area but it’s a good sign that Glasgow isn’t too far away from the amber warning.

At the moment it seems the sweet spot is to the west of Edinburgh but I suspect tomorrow and perhaps into Wednesday Edinburgh should join in on the action. I think the Lothians as a whole should do pretty well. There’s still uncertainty about where exactly the streamers will set up - especially with regards to Edinburgh and Glasgow - but it seems very likely areas between Kirkcaldy and Cumbernauld could get absolutely hammered with snow.

Bearsden seems to be in the very southern edge of the showers. The last shower was heavy but the sun was still visible with blue sky overhead. I’m positive some of the showers will track to south to reach more of the Glasgow area.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see an amber warning for many parts of central Scotland. Looking at some of the snow depth charts I think a red warning is a possibility - places such as Falkirk, Polmont, Bonnybridge, Denny, Grangenouth, Bo’ness, Linlithgow, Dunfermline, Rosyth, Cowdenbeath, Kilsyth and Cumbernauld could experience an event on the scale of the Beast from the East. Essentially anywhere south of south of Kincardine, north of Moodiesburn, east of Lennoxtown and west of South Queensferry is in the firing line.

I think you’ve moved to Cumbernauld at the right time! I would be surprised if you saw less than 20cm and I wouldn’t be surprised to see more than 40cm between areas to the north east of Glasgow and Falkirk. Ultimately it depends on where the streamer sets up but it seems areas to the south west of the Forth will see frequent heavy snow showers. Another shower has now arrived here.

A brief heavy snow shower has left a covering this morning. It’s encouraging to see the snow showers making decent progress inland with some making it to Dumbarton and Loch Fyne. The track seems to be ENE so showers around Kirkcaldy are moving into the Falkirk area, then towards Kilsyth/Cumbernauld then Bearsden/Clydebank. I think southern and western parts of Fife and Perth and Kinross, the Falkirk area, northern and western parts of West Lothian and northernmost areas of North Lanarkshire could see depths in the range of 25-50cm. Many parts of central Scotland and the borders could see 10-30cm. Let’s hope the streamers play ball later!

A heavier snow shower has left a slight dusting which bodes well for later. The charts are showing Monday night into Tuesday as the period most likely to produce for central areas.

Snow flurry has arrived here aswell.

A lot of the charts appear to show Glasgow being on the south western extent of the showers. I’m hopeful of seeing some snow but how much remains to be seen. It looks like most of the action will be to the north of the Forth and especially north of the Tay. I think some parts of Fife, Angus, Perthshire and Aberdeenshire could see up to at least a foot of snow. It’ll also be interesting to see how cold it will get under such a cold airmass. The met office are going for nights of 2C and lows of -2C. I wouldn’t be surprised if we end up with colder values than current projections - perhaps later next week we could see some very low minimum temperatures especially in areas with snow cover. Looking further ahead the models are suggesting an extension of the cold spell into next weekend and possibly into the following week. We could end up with cold, anticyclonic conditions or perhaps another easterly. I’m in two minds about the potential breakdown. There’s a part of me that would like to see a proper snowy breakdown (especially if the easterly struggles to deliver for central and western areas) but it would also be great to have a more prolonged cold spell. We could potentially be looking at the coldest February since 1986 and maybe even a subzero mean temperature for the month if the cold persists beyond mid month - that would make for a notably cold winter if not an especially snowy one. Ideally, we end up with a big battleground snow event to conclude a memorable week for cold and snow with the cold winning out with further easterlies followed by high pressure retrogressing to Greenland.

In the Beast from the east the red warning covered much of the central belt with Dumbarton on the western edge of the warning. 26cm fell here just to the north of Glasgow. If I remember correctly less snow fell in the south side of Glasgow whilst some places further west around such as Greenock and Balloch got a lot of snow - up to 2 feet in some places. The Beast from the East exceeded my expectations - an absolutely unforgettable experience - though it was a very uneven event in terms of snow depths. I remember having concerns about the convective potential given the lower SSTs so late in the season but that didn’t turn out to be an issue. I think initially it started as an ENEly on the 27th with a stream of showers from the Tay towards Glasgow and once the first couple of inches had fallen I felt much more relaxed about the easterly delivering. A few weeks later there was another easterly which also produced 5cm. There haven’t been too many easterlies in recent years - prior to 2018, March 2013 had frequent snow showers but accumulations were no better than 2-3cm. Nov 2010 was phenomenal with 25cm and 2nd Feb 2009 also produced an inch or two. During easterlies most places to the east of the M74, Cumbernauld, Loch Earn and the Cairngorms tend to do well depending on where streamers set up and the track of showers. Usually some should reach Renfrewshire, the Erskine Bridge and Loch Lomond. It’s a struggle for areas further west, in particular Ayrshire and parts of the Western Highlands and Islands, though 2018 is an example of how easterlies can deliver to areas west of Glasgow. I’m keeping expectations low and hoping for at least a couple of inches snow here - which should be more than achievable but not inevitable looking at the charts. Once that threshold is hopefully reached then it becomes a case of how much snow will fall rather than if. Given the potential in the charts it would be great if the western central Belt can get 10-30cm to rival 2018 and other memorable snowfalls - anything more than 30cm is almost too much! Areas in the eastern half of Scotland could see widely 15-40cm with the worst hit areas seeing more than half a metre which would rank among the best events in the past few decades. It will also be nice to have a few ice days which is rarer in February compared to earlier in the winter. Despite a very cold January Glasgow is yet to a record a maximum of 0C or lower. Looking at the models from this morning it appears the cold might be extended by a day or two with much of Scotland under uppers below -10C which is remarkable. Hopefully the blocking is more robust than the models are showing and we end up extending the cold further into February. If not then perhaps we could see a snowy breakdown on top of the snow from the easterly. An interesting 10 days are ahead of us and it will be fascinating to see how this event compares to 2018 and other events .

The precipitation is starting to turn wintry.

A pretty miserable morning with damp, windy and cold conditions. This weekend and early next week is looking increasingly interesting with the GFS joining the other models in what could be the stand out event of a cold winter. We could be looking st the most significant cold spell in the mid Jan-mid Feb period since 1991. Other than 2001, 2009 and 2018 there have not been too many noteworthy cold spells in February but I think it’s safe to say 2021 will join that list. I think we are looking at a more prolonged easterly than 2018 and a more potent cold spell than 2009. It’s far too early to predict how much snow will fall and where but I think parts of the Borders, Fife, Perthshire, Angus and Aberdeenshire exposes to the wind should do very well. No two easterlies are exactly the same so we just need to wait and see if the North Sea snow machine is in good condition and whether the snow showers are heavy, widespread and make it far inland or perhaps some more organised snowfall. There’s always the chance of hit and miss snow showers with uneven snow depths over short distances. I probably would have preferred the easterly to have occurred in January but given this is happening a few weeks earlier than 2018 I presume slightly warmer SSTs and weaker sun should help despite the uppers not as cold as 2018. Having said that it would appear Scotland may be under -10C uppers for longer than 2018, 1991 and 1987 and with lower air pressure and atmospheric pressure aswell. Areas to the north and east of Glasgow should widely see depths in excess of 20cm with more than 40cn in worst hit areas with altitude. I think 5-25cm is more realistic for parts of the Lothians, Lanarkshire and Glasgow area with areas close to the west coast struggling although snow showers could funnel through to the Clyde estuary if a streamer sets up. Hopefully the cold spell will be prolonged and we could be looking at perhaps the coldest February since 1986 (which is long overdue).

It’s been snowing lightly for a while but it looks like it might become heavier.

It seems we are in the wrong side of marginal for now. I think we’ll have to endure a period of rain before conditions become favourable for snow. The overnight runs were pretty interesting - most of the models looking very good for an easterly. It’s a bit concerning to see the GFS not on the same page as the other models though it’s still a snowy run. I notice the provisional mean temperature for January in Scotland was 0.5C. Very impressive - the coldest month since December 2010, the joint 4th coldest month of the past 30 years, and the the 15th coldest January since 1884.

A cold and sunny start to February. Hopefully we are on the cusp of the most significant weather of the winter so far. This winter up to date has been a colder version of 00/01, 05/06, 08/09, 12/13 - and not too dissimilar to some winters of the 80s. What all of those winters had in common were notable spells of either low temperatures, heavy snowfall or prolonged cold. Hopefully this upcoming cold spell will produce larger snowfalls and colder temperatures than we’ve seen so far. I don’t think we’ll see cold spell with the severity of 2010 or the Beast from the East in terms of either duration or intensity but I do think we could be looking at one of the more notable February cold spells of the last 30 years. It would be great to experience something to rival 2010 or 2018, but we don’t need an exceptional event to deliver a memorable cold spell or snowfall. A below average month is quite likely if we avoid a mild second half and if the cold persists or even intensifies beyond mid February then we could be looking at one of the coldest months of the past 35 years and would make 20/21 a notably cold winter. In the meantime we have the prospect of potentially significant snow in some areas. The high ground and parts of eastern Scotland away from the coast could see a lot of snow - totals in excess of a foot is more than possible. Elsewhere I expect precipitation alternate between snow and rain with accumulations mostly in places higher than 100m. Hopefully the precipitation remains as snow for most of us and it’s the type of snow that settles. Here in the Glasgow area I think we’ll be lucky to see more than a couple of inches. It looks like later this week we’ll see an easterly of sorts develop. The details on duration, how cold the uppers will be and whether it will be dry or snowy remains to be seen though it looks promising for eastern parts of Scotland. It isn’t a done deal yet but the chances of a potentially potent easterly is growing. Hopefully we end up with a proper Greenland High establishing to prolong the cold further into February or perhaps a snowy breakdown. Certainly an interesting period of weather coming up!

It looks like the mean temperature for Glasgow airport will be around 1.3C. Since 1973 only 1979, 1985, 1987 and 2010 had lower values and this month is tied with December 2009 and February 2010 as the fourth coldest since 1988 with only December 1995 and January and December 2010 being colder. So a notably cold month but more so for the lack of above average temperatures rather than severe low temperatures. The maximum has reached or exceeded 7C on 5 occasions and lows have been 2C or higher only 6 times this month - both totals fewer than 2010. January 2021 reminds me a little of February 2010 which was statistically notably cold but the weather was mostly quiet and unexciting. In the past milder months with a more active Atlantic have seen more potent episodes of cold and snow. Numerous other months had lower highs than the 1C recorded this month and January 2015 and 2019 both had two snowfalls of more than 2 inches compared to one fall of 4cm this year. On the other hand some parts of the south east of Scotland and places with height have had a more than decent January for snowfall. Overall it has been a very respectable if unremarkable month with the first half in particular seeing lots of fine winter sunshine, some very cold nights including -11C and a number of snowfalls leaving a covering. The second half has been generally below average but cloudier and less cold at night with a few attempts at frontal snowfalls being to marginal to deliver more than a brief cover of slush. Certainly a helluva lot better than recent years (especially the last couple) but we’ve lacked established blocking injecting proper cold air and delivering more widespread, heavier and less marginal snowfalls and longer lasting and deeper snow cover. Hopefully the next couple of weeks we’ll be rewarded with something special. The past few weeks have seen the models promise tantalising Synoptics only for it to be watered down leaving us on the margins of significant cold - sadly this hasn’t been too uncommon in the last nine years. For once it would be great if we could finally see the promise of proper high latitude blocking coming to fruition. If it does, then we could be looking at the most significant cold spell in the heart of winter (mid Jan-mid Feb) since 1991. A more watered down version could still be fairly notable like February 2009 but there’s still the chance things go pear shaped like Feb 2012. At the very least early February is looking cold with some chances for snow. I’m keeping an eye on the potential frontal snowfall next week which could be impressive in some areas. I’m hoping we all end up with a good dumping of snow but I always keep expectations low in set ups like this. More often than not we see frontal snow end up further south than originally forecast, or too marginal or light for accumulations. Here’s hoping we end up with an all snow event which settles.

Heavy snow but it’s not settling.

Just wet sleety snow just now. I think most of action tomorrow will be to the east of here where there could be sine significant accumulations. There haven’t been too many notable frontal snowfalls in recent years and I think tomorrow won’t be the last oppurtunity this winter. I’m expecting no more than a couple of inches at best tomorrow though I’m hoping for a surprise. It’s been a pretty decent start to the winter - a big improvement on the last couple of years - and the first half of January was pretty cold with a mean of 0.4 at Glasgow Airport and the coldest minimum since 2010. It hasn’t been spectacular on the snow front though there have been a few nice falls of snow and I’m hoping the second half of the winter will deliver something memorable.

A nice covering of snow this morning and it’s still coming down nicely though I’m not sure for how much longer.

A minimum of -11C at Glasgow Airport which is the coldest since 25 December 2010. I would expect some rural locations had lows close to -15C. Some other very low temperatures include -9C at Edinburgh, -8C at Aberdeen and -7C at Prestwick.

Some wonderful pictures of what was a perfect winter’s day. Cloudless skies, no wind, temperatures barely above freezing and dropping like a stone after sunset, and a covering of sparkling snow. There’s been a lot of crisp winter sunshine and overnight frosts over the last couple of weeks but it’s amazing what a difference an inch or two of snow can make to the scenery - some of the photos look alpine. It’s just a shame the snow came at the end of this cold spell. Cold spells come in different varieties and this cold spell has been notable for the duration - the longest in 7 years -and probably the sunshine as well. Temperatures haven’t been remarkable with 1C being the lowest maximum at Glasgow airport though there have been some cold nights with -9C tonight the joint coldest since 2010. It was quite frustrating here for snow with it being dry most of the time and about half of the precipitation falling as rain. The snowfall the other night was better than expected - 4.5cm the most since the second easterly of March 2018. It seems quite a lot of Scotland has seen some snow settling at times. A decent cold spell and a decent first half of winter - quite similar to 08/09 and 17/18 - and much better than most of the last 8 years of so. Hopefully the SSW delivers and we end up with a more significant cold spell in the coming weeks. In recent decades there have not been many prolonged or potent periods of winter weather in the second half of winter so I think we’re overdue some proper cold and snow in late January and into February.