A Winter's Tale

It could be Stob Binnein and Ben More. Certainly one of the Munros near Crianlarich.

A snow shower has just arrived from the north.

A couple of pictures of the snow cover this morning.

4.5cm of lying snow this morning which is the best since March 2018.

Snowing steadily here with most surfaces covered.

I wish everyone the happiest possible new year - 2021 can only be better than 2020. A nice frosty start to the new year with clear skies. The seasonal weather is a welcome change from the perpetual overcast skies which December seems to offer most of the time. It looks like the cold weather will persist throughout much of the first half of January - the first time in a decade we’ve seen any period of seasonal weather at this time of year. The next 7 days will probably be mostly cold and dry though some surprises can’t be ruled out regarding snow - most likely in south eastern Scotland. Thereafter it appears we could see things start to shift with a variety of options on offer, mostly cold, including possibly a more potent northerly or easterly whilst we may see a breakdown of sorts around mid-month. The models recently have been all over the place so we won’t know for a while what will be in store in a few weeks time. Hopefully any mild spell will be short-lived or even the current cold spell continues and intensifies after mid-month. There’s huge potential for significant winter weather with a northern hemisphere pattern already conducive for cold weather and an SSW on top. As ever delivering significant cold and snow to these shores is always precarious though it’s hard not to be excited about what could be on offer in what appears to be an unprecedented set up. Given the potential, I’d be underwhelmed if we don’t achieve a sub 2C mean for January, a minimum of -15C or lower in the highlands or widespread inland snow cover of more than 2 inches. I don’t think it’s entirely unrealistic to achieve a sub 1C mean, lows of -18C in highlands and -10C in populated areas and widespread snow cover of 10cm + and locally 30cm+. No two notable cold spells are the same in-terms of duration and the depth of cold and snow - we’re certainly looking at a fairly notable cold spell in terms of duration but just how cold and snowy remains to be seen. Once the models are able to grasp the impact of the SSW hopefully we’re looking at a period of memorable winter weather. I certainly think we could see something of the magnitude of 2010 or 1979 - maybe a level above although I think matching 1947 or 1963 is too far fetched but not impossible. Equally we could experience a month more notable for persistent low temperatures rather than snow or we could end up with a frustrating two week cold spell like January 2013 which lacked significant cold and snow. It will be interest to see how the coming weeks pan out.

Quite large snowflakes falling down - settling for now.

Just a dusting here. Very impressive further east - anywhere with at least a couple of inches should have some snow cover for at least a couple of weeks. Given this is from a north easterly with uppers of around -4C I’d imagine a easterly with uppers around -7/-8C or lower would produce a lot of snow.

The first snow shower had arrived

It looks like the next few days will be rather lively with the potential for some decent snowfalls in places. Anything can happen in this set up and as ever with snow events it’s a case of nowcasting and radar watching. I’m personally expecting up to an inch of wet snow though I’m hoping for more than a couple of inches - some places in the north and west will probably see several inches. Any areas which see a decent covering could have snow on the ground for up to a week at least. In 2009/10 and Nov/Dec 2010 there were only a couple of snowfalls of more than a couple of inches and sometimes that’s all you need during a sustained cold spell. At face value the charts are not as impressive as 2010 in terms of depth and duration of cold but that doesn’t mean you can’t have a memorable cold spell. Given the set up and any snow cover there’s the potential for some very low temperatures, snowfalls can pop up at short notice and there’s always the chance that the cold increases in intensity and duration. Nevertheless the coming period is the probably the most promising for cold and snow in late Decenber/early January in over a decade and with the likelihood of a SSW January should have a lot on offer for cold and snow - I’d say there’s a very good chance January will be colder than average, possibly substantially so.

A nice covering this morning - looking rather festive. It snowed heavily around around 2am and left a covering of around half a cm. A nice start to winter - better than the last couple of Decembers and hopefully the start of a decent winter for cold and snow.

Followed by lightning and thunder!

Wintry shower passing through just now.

Here's a screenshot of the Lightning I tried to film on Tuesday night. It's a shame it didn't stay clear for long as it was quite a light show in the east - though I'm glad the storm was not overhead! Yesterday turned out to be a very warm and humid day with a hazy end of summer feel. Last night was largely clear though I was able to see distant flashes to the south - presumably from the storms near the aisle of Man. Cooler and cloudier today.

Cloud cover has now obscured the storm though I've been able to hear some thunder.

Truly unbelievable light show right now. I've seen many bolts of lightning looking east!

I can only imagine what the carnage that's going on in Edinburgh/Fife - constant lightning, heavy rain, a little bit of hail, gusty winds and lloud thunder. The only thing missing is a tornado! I wonder what's contributed to such an impressive that seems to have intensified after dark. Here it's a warm night but the breeze has picked up a little with clouds moving quickly to the west. There's been constant flashes to the east for much of the last two hours with occasional brighter flashes.

Seems to be lightning flashes to the east every few seconds. I can't tell there's cloud or haze overhead and whether that's reflecting the the Lightning from the storm over Edinburgh. Quite remarkable that the flashes can be seen from Ayr - it must be some storm over Edinburgh.

Heavy rain and just saw a flash of lightning

Given how close Prestwick is to the sea 30c is quite remarkable - and it's not the first time it's happened. I wonder if there's a micro climate there that contributes to higher temperatures or perhaps it's just down to a favourable wind direction.

Quite a lot of clouds bubbling up now and I wouldn't be surprised if some develop into showers.

Lovely night tonight and it looks like we could be in for an interesting couple of days. Last year Glasgow reached 29Cand the year before it exceeded 31C and with 29C forecast for tomorrow it seems summer 2020 might join the list of very high temperatures in Glasgow. Like last summer it hasn't been anything special in terms of temperatures and sunshine so far but when we do get a spell of hot weather it tends to be very hot. I've just read the convective weather forecast which is interesting to say the least. Last year was very active in terms of convection and 2018 had a couple of decent storms but the last proper storm I can remember was 2006. I don't think I've experienced a supercell or a severe thunderstorm with large hail and gusty winds although I might have seen a funnel cloud once. I doubt there'll be widespread thunderstorm activity tomorrow but where they do occur they could be intense.

A brief wintry shower has just passed through - just 24hrs after a maximum of 20C. I think it snowed exactly 10 years ago today.

Longest Cold Spells: 14 days or more with mean 2.0C or lower 20 Jan-12 Mar 1947 - 52 15 Jan-23 Feb 1855 - 40 7 Dec 1890-13 Jan 1891 - 38 27 Dec 1813-1 Feb 1814 - 37 23 Dec 1962-27 Jan 1963 - 36 13 Jan-16 Feb 1917 - 35 24 Dec 1794-26 Jan 1795 - 34 29 Jan-3 Mar 1963 - 34 8 Jan-6 Feb 1830 - 30 24 Jan-22 Feb 1895 - 30 7 Dec 1784-4 Jan 1785 - 29 3 Feb-3 Mar 1986 - 29 7 Jan-2 Feb 1776 - 27 9 Jan-4 Feb 1940 - 27 24 Dec 1819-18 Jan 1820 - 26 2-25 Feb 1827 - 24 16 Jan-7 Feb 1772 - 23 23 Feb-17 Mar 1886 - 23 12 Feb-5 Mar 1888 - 23 29 Jan-20 Feb 1902 - 23 6-27 Dec 1878 - 22 25 Jan-15 Feb 1991 - 22 18 Jan-7 Feb 1780 - 21 26 Dec 1788-15 Jan 1789 - 21 13 Dec 1799-2 Jan 1800 - 21 5-25 Jan 1829 - 21 12 Dec 1874-1 Jan 1875 - 21 9-29 Jan 1880 - 21 7-27 Jan 1881 - 21 11 Feb-3 Mar 1955 - 21 8-28 Dec 1981 - 21 31 Jan-19 Feb 1782 - 20 16 Jan-4 Feb 1784 - 20 8-27 Jan 1823 - 20 16 Jan-4 Feb 1879 - 20 10-29 Jan 1933 - 20 27 Dec 1777-14 Jan 1778 - 19 19 Dec 1829-6 Jan 1830 - 19 15 Jan-2 Feb 1897 - 19 27 Jan-14 Feb 1919 - 19 5-23 Jan 1942 - 19 17 Dec 1961-4 Jan 1962 - 19 23 Dec 1996-10 Jan 1997 - 19 25 Dec 1776-11 Jan 1777 - 18 30 Dec 1801-16 Jan 1802 - 18 23 Dec 1892-9 Jan 1893 - 18 3-20 Jan 1985 - 18 23 Jan 1996-9 Feb 1996 - 18 26 Feb-14 Mar 1785 - 17 22 Feb 1786-10 Mar 1786 - 17 4-20 Mar 1814 - 17 5-21 Jan 1838 - 17 18 Feb-6 Mar 1858 - 17 14-30 Dec 1860 - 17 8-24 Feb 1983 - 17 29 Dec 1773-13 Jan 1774 - 16 17 Dec 1804-1 Jan 1805 - 16 26 Dec 1867-10 Jan 1868 - 16 21 Dec 1870-5 Jan 1871 - 16 28 Nov-13 Dec 1879 - 16 14 Feb-1 Mar 1942 - 16 6-21 Feb 1979 - 16 24 Nov-9 Dec 2010 - 16 6-20 Feb 1784 - 15 1-15 Jan 1842 - 15 18 Jan-1 Feb 1871 - 15 30 Dec 1894-13 Jan 1895 - 15 1-15 Feb 1900 - 15 24 Jan-7 Feb 1954 - 15 17-31 Jan 1979 - 15 31 Jan-13 Feb 1773 - 14 10-23 Dec 1788 - 14 28 Jan-10 Feb 1879 - 14 21 Jan-3 Feb 1805 - 14 28 Dec 1810-10 Jan 1811 - 14 15-28 Jan 1815 - 14 10-23 Feb 1838 - 14 9-22 Jan 1847 - 14 5-18 Jan 1850 - 14 24 Dec 1853-6 Jan 1854 - 14 24 Jan-6 Feb 1873 - 14 21 Dec 1950-3 Jan 1951 - 14 4-17 Jan 1959 - 14 9-22 Jan 1966 - 14 8-21 Feb 1978 - 14 7-20 Jan 1987 - 14 1-14 Jan 2010 - 14 Earliest and and latest spells of consecutive days with mean below 2.0C. 16 Oct 1843 - 1 day 23-24 Oct 1859 - 2 days 26-29 Oct 1895 - 4 days 8-13 Nov 1921 - 6 days 17-24 Nov 1858 - 8 days 22-30 Nov 1923 - 9 days 24 Nov-9 Dec 2010 - 16 days 6-27 Dec 1878 - 22 days 7 Dec 1890-13 Jan 1891 - 38 days 15 Jan-23 Feb 1855 - 40 days 20 Jan-12 Mar 1947 - 52 days 23 Feb-17 Mar 1886 - 23 days 4-20 Mar 1814 - 17 days 23 Mar-1 Apr 2013 - 10 days 30 Mar-4 Apr 1879 - 6 days 3-7 Apr 1839 - 5 days 14-16 Apr 1892 - 3 days 24-25 Apr 1908 - 2 days 29 Apr 1856 - 1 day

The 2010s had no shortage of significant weather events in the United Kingdom. The decade began with some of the most notable winter weather in decades including the historic cold of Devember 2010. And the decade ended with new monthly maximum temperatures being set in 3 months, including 20C being reached for the first time in February and the all time UK maximum temperature of 38.7C in July. The decade droughts, at the beginning of the decade and in the summer of 2018, record rainfall and significant flooding - most notably in 2013-14 and December 2015. There were some remarkable periods of weather including the unseasonable warmth of April 2011, December 2015 and February 2019, and cold of March 2013 and the very stormy and wet winter of 2013-14. The decade also saw some significant storms including ex-Hurricane Ophelia and the gales of 2011-12. And there was an abundance of notable warm weather events and records. After a decade of a variety of extremes and records it's difficult to choose which event stands out the most. Personally, breaking the winter record maximum temperature record so emphatically was particularly exceptional, possibly more so than breaking the all time UK maximum in July. The historic cold of late Nov-December 2010 personally stands out the most and will probably stand out even more in the future in the context of climate change. Honourable mentions go to the cold and snow of March 2013, the relentless wind and rain of 2013-14, the exceptionally mild and wet Dec 2015, The Beast from the East and summer of 2018. The most memorable weather events depend on your location and interest. Localised events such as snowfalls, thunderstorms and gales vary from to place so some people would regard the snowfall of Jan 2019 as locally more notable than 2010, 2013, 2018. Depending on taste some prefer more benign anti-cyclonic periods and consider a quiet and pleasant period of settled and sunny conditions as more memorable than more dramatic events. My most memorable highlights from the 2010s include: the heavy snowfalls at the end of November and early December 2010. Thunder snow on the 26th November followed by a larger snowfall on the 28th. Snow showers driven by an easterly wind interspersed with clear intervals defines that spell. The 6th-8th December was especially memorable with a large snowfall on the 6th causing chaos in central Scotland followed by sunshine and very cold temperatures - a maximum of -8C on the 7th. The week leading up to Christmas - despite lacking in snow - was extremely cold with daytime highs of -3 to -5 and lows of -7 to -14. The gale on the morning of January 3rd 2012 easily surpassed the much hyped event on December 8th. Maximum mean wind speed of over 58mph and gusts of 89mph were damaging and brought down a number of trees. This was the most notable gale I can remember. March 2013 was memorable for how unusual it was to have a prolonged cold spell so late in the season. For a period of two weeks daytime temperatures got no higher than 6C and snow fell on almost everyday. Despite snow depths no more than an inch which melted in the sun, the fact this cold spell took place during the second half of March made it all the more impressive and changed perspectives of what is possible for winter weather in Spring. Jan-Jul 2018 was a very memorable period of weather with some decent polar maritime snow throughout the winter - after mid January inparticular. The Beast from the East was quite an experience, a phenomenon. The heavy snow commenced on the evening on the 27th February 2018 and continued into the 1st March. A rare red warning for snow was issued on the 28th for large parts of central Scotland. The 28th was quite a remarkable day. Frequent whiteouts of dry powdery snow accompanied by strong, bitterly cold easterlies. The maximum at Glasgow airport was -3C, considering the lowest maximum for the second half of winter in Glasgow in the previous 45 years was -1C, to record such a low temperature on the last day of winter and accompanied by strong winds and heavy snow was seriously impressive. The first of March was the latest date the temperature failed to exceed 0C at Glasgow airport. The maximum snow depth was 26cm, the highest total since I started recording in 2010 and easily one of the largest snowfalls in the previous 30 years. Cold and wintry weather continued into April and Spring didn't properly get underway until after mid April. Summer arrived in mid May with warm, dry and settled conditions persisting into early June with the exception of the odd thunderstorm - one of which one of the more impressive of the past 10 years. The end of June to mid July was persistently warm and dry with 21C recorded each day from 24 June to 14 July and no rainfall between 21 June and 10 Jul. The highlight was easily the 28th June with temperstures of 31C at Glasgow airport - the highest since I'm at least 43 years - and just under 32C at Glasgow Bishopton. Other memorable events include the continuation of the Big Freeze in January 2010. The second half of January 2015 was very decent with two decent falls of snow each followed by a week long period of settled and crisp winter conditions. March 2012 was very memorable for a record breaking warm spell with temperatures into the 20s in Scotland. May 2012 had a hearwave which broke records in Scotland, temperatures in the mid-high 20s in Glasgow. February 2018 was had some very pleasant, settled winter conditions. July 2013 had an excellent two week warm spell and July 2014 also had an excellent heatwave. Here's a selection of notable weather events of the 2010s Winter 2009-10: Coldest since 1979 with a notable period of prolonged and at times severe cold and snow lasting until mid Jan. Nov/Dec 2010: Severe cold and snow from late November persisting throughout December. Coldest UK December in over 100 years, 2nd coldest in CET series April/Spring 2011: Warmest April (11.8 CET) and Spring on record (UK mean 9.15) Autumn 2011: Warm - second warmest Autumn on record (12.43 CET). All-time October daily maximum temperature with 29.9C on 1st Oct at Gravesend. Winter 2011-12: 'Hurricane Bawbag' 8 December 2011. 3 Jan 2012 most severe storm in Scotland since 1998. March 2012: Warm and dry - 5th warmest March on record (8.3 CET) and 5th driest since 1910 (37mm) and temperatures in the low 20s. 2010-12: Drought in England and Wales. One of the driest two-year periods in over 100 years. April-July 2012: Record rainfall - wettest April (128mm), June (149mm) and second wettest summer (379.2mm) on record. March 2013: 2nd coldest March (UK mean 2.2) since 1910 with significant snow and very low temperatures in the second half of the month. July 2013: Heatwave - 4th warmest since 1910 (UK mean 17.0). Winter 2013-14: Exceptionally wet and stormy - wettest on record (544.9mm) and wettest January (188mm) and 3rd wettest February (169.2mm) with significant flooding and stormiest in 20 years. 2014: Warmth - Warmest year on record (9.91). 6th warmest winter (5.22), 3rd warmest Spring (9.05) and 3rd warmest Autumn (10.87). 1st July 2015: Record heat - 36.7C at Heathrow sets new July record. November 2015: Record warmth - A maximum of the 22.4C at Trawsgoed, Ceredigion the warmest November temperature on record. December 2015 and Winter 15/16: Exceptionally mild and wet - December 2015 mildest (9.7 CET) and wettest (218.8mm) on record. Significant flooding, 341.4mm at Honister Pass, Cumbria sets new 24hr record on 5th December. Second mildest winter (6.67 CET) on record and second wettest on record (509.1mm). September 2016: Heatwave - seconds warmest since 1910 (14.6), 34.4C at Gravesend on the 13th the warmest September temperature since 1911. 2017: Warmth - Joint warmest Spring (9.15) since 1910 followed by warmest June temperature since 1976 -34.5C at Heathrow on the 21st June. 16 October 2017 - Ex-hurricane Ophelia - potent post-tropical Hurricane making making landfall in Ireland. Feb-Mar 2018 - The Beast from the East - a very notable spell of significant snow and very low temperatures. -4.7C at Tredegar, Blaenue Gwenton set the record for the coldest March maximum temperature on the 1st. April 2018: Exceptional warmth - 29.1C on the 19th at St James Park the highest April temperature since 1949. 15.9C at Kenley Airfield the highest April minimum temperature on record. Summer 2018: Heatwave - The joint second warmest May since 1910 (12.1) followed by an exceptionally long period of warm, dry and sunny weather in June and July. The warmest summer since 1910 (UK mean 15.8). June was the 3rd warmest (14.8) and July the 2nd (17.3). February 2019: Exceptional warmth - the 2nd warmest February since 1910 (6.0). 20C recorded in winter for the first time - a maximum of 21.2C on the 26th February the warmest winter temperature on record. A minimum of 13.9C on the 23rd at Achnagart, Highland the warmest February minimum temperature on record. 25th July 2019: Historic heat - A maximum of 38.7C at Cambridge Botanic Gardens on the 25th the warmest temperature ever recorded in the UK. Jun-Dec 2019: Rainfall - Heavy rainfall causing floods in Lincolnshire in June, flash flooding from thunderstorms in Yorkshire in late July, and severe floods in South Yorkshire in November. December 2019: Warmth - A maximum of 18.7C at Achfary, Highland on the 28th provisionally the warmest December temperature on record