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A Winter's Tale

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Posts posted by A Winter's Tale

  1. The best snowfall since at least early December 2011 with a depth of 6cm and 6.5cm in exposed areas. Just been out in a wonderful walk and it's still snowing. The last

    time February produced the best snowfall of the winter was in 2009. A shame it will all melt but the important thing is that it's been a very good snow event. :)

  2. Good morning. Tomorrow's snow event certainly does have the potential to be the most significant of the winter. The conditions of course could be more favourable but a few factors are going our way this time. Overnight tonight, before and during the time of the arrival of the front, temperatures should be close or a degree or two below freezing and the fact that the snow is meant arrive before dawn is also a positive factor. The ground should also start dry and the precipitation is very likely to start as snow and it's vital that the snow settles as quick as possible. Another factor is that the precipitation could also be pretty heavy in places which would increase the chance of settling snow. And if all goes well, and the snowfall settles instantly, then there is a chance of having at least 5hrs worth of fairly heavy snowfall and I wouldn't rule out many areas seeing atleast 4-6cm. But of course, things can change but for sure at higher elevations this will be another significant snow event and accumilations on the high ground should easily reach 10cm.

  3. I've noticed that a few times, I think the BBC national gets the more up to date information while the regional one (at weekends/mornings) is prerecorded so running on the earlier data. The most notable was on the 23rd December 2009 when the Scottish news in the morning was reporting on the heavy snow down the east coast but the forecast talked about only a few isolated flurries around the Aberdeenshire coast and showed no sign of the snow that was falling at the time. Such needless stupidity makes meteorology look to the public like a bunch of tea leaf readers who for some reason have acquired a supercomputer but don't quite understand how to use it.

    I've noticed that many times. I can still recall the night before that Monday morning of December 6th 2010, the BBC national varied a bit during the evening but the consensus was for a front moving south to bring accumilations of around 5-10cm to the central belt. The Reporting Scotland forecast showed nothing other than a few isolated flurries with the band fizzling as it moved south and there wasn't even a mention of snow from the forecaster. And we all know what happened next....

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-11976328

  4. One word to describe today's weather here is benign and it's been like this for the best part of the last two days which have been quieter in comparison to earlier this week. A day or two ago, Sunday was looking like a widespread snow event across much of Scotland with the possibility of over 24hrs+ snowfall in some spots. Now, it's quite a similar situation to that Monday last month when the front made very little progress across Scotland whilst eastern parts experienced snow showers in the evening. Tonight, there's still a chance that more areas could see some snow from this front for a time on this occasion and there could be some patchy light snow and flurries across various parts of the country later on Sunday and into Monday. Once more, this should all come down to nowcasting so surprises and let-downs could be in store. And into next week there could be another frontal snowfall on Wednesday but thereafter, confidence is very low, thus the continued variability across the models. It seems like the battle may continue but for now we can only guess what could happen. There is the potential for further seasonal conditions and a Greenland high is also a possibility and this could be a breakthrough for possibly a notable end to the meteorological winter and start to Spring.

  5. I woke up to a fantastic, proper covering of snow that was abscent throughout the cold spell in January that only brought a brief, patchy cm on a few occasions. I wasn't able to measure the depth but I assume it was around 2-4cm which is pretty close to December 2nd/3rd earlier this year. The second proper snow event this winter - defined by depths over a cm on most surfaces, shovel in use etc - the same number as last year and here, it could be the best February snowfall since 2009. However sadly, one of the fastest thaws I've seen occured in the morning and the snow is all gone - I recall, in Feb 2009, a front from the north west brought around an inch of snow that disapeared within a hour. Right now, the temperature is around 6/7C but it is calm and pleasant with some afternoon sunshine and blue skies. I would have loved to have kept the snow for longer but I'm pretty happy with what's happened so far, making for a more balanced winter for snow and cold than last year.

  6. Another heavy shower here, good level of accumulation now. Here is a radar grab of the lightning strike within the last 10-15 mins.

    post-7292-0-40468500-1360022679_thumb.jp

    Everything taking on the orange glow,skies full of snow. Snawshield completely busted !

    'Mon the Westerlies - giving the Easterly a run for it's money here!!

    That lightnight strike was pretty close to Torrance!

  7. Blizzard alert at Bearsden! Horizontal and fast moving snow, flickering lights and all surfaces all white....what will it be like in the morning I wonder? One thing this is for sure that this already beats Feb 2012 interms of a proper snowfall and another event that's brought a satisfactory covering.

    EDIT: F****** H*** - AMAZING BLIZZARD NOW!!!! INSANE!

  8. After some rain in the morning things improved in the afternoon and now it's a a calm and cold evening with a clear starry sky. And for large parts of Scotland it should be a super winter's night with widespread clear skies, particulary in southern and western areas, and there should be showers in northern and eastern parts exposed to the northerly wind - the precipitation is most likely to be watery near the coast but further inland it should be snow. The outer hebrides could see some showers earlier on in the night and there could be snow on the high ground and maybe even in Stornoway. Shetland and Orkney should both see snow showers throughout the night and maybe a covering of a cm or two here. Caithness and the far north coast of the mainland should see some showers but Moray and Aberdeenshire should see snow showers coming off the Moray Firth and locally there could be a covering of around a cm. The eastern parts of the Borders should also see showers during the night. A widespread air frost is likely with lows around 0 to -3C for much of the country.

    ukprec.png

    A beautiful Saturday morning is on the cards with plenty of sunshine and clear skies for many areas away from some northern areas that could still be at risk of seeing some snow showers. The sunshine should continue into the afternoon but cloud cover should increase as the day goes on. But a cold day is instore with highs of only 1 to 4C.

    Saturday night should see a spell of persistent and heavy rain sweep across the country before clearing by dawn. A brief drier interlude with sunny intervals should soon be followed by another area of rainfall later on Sunday.

    With an area of low pressure centred north of Scotland between Iceland and Norway, on Monday we develop a fresh WNWly flow with uppers of around -5 to -7C and plenty of showers sweeping across large parts of the country and these showers should be most frequent and heaviest in the west and the precipitation is likely to be wintry. After the recent cold spell was disapointing for significant snowfall in western Scotland, then early next week the west will probably be best for snow. In winter, polar maritime air can bring the best snowfalls to Glasgow and western parts of the country. A recent example was 3-5th December 2011 which saw heavy snow showers dump 7cm of the white stuff here but it did take a while for showers to make it across the Arrochar Alps and Cowal Hills. From Monday and into Tuesday, the strong flow should be conclusive to plenty of showers making progress across much of the country so there is the potential for something decent or even significant for western areas and the Nevis Range and Glencoe ski centres should have a decent fall of snow.

    On Wednesday the signs are pointing towards a northerly wind so all in all the start of next week atleast is looking distinctly seasonal and lively. With high pressure to our south west, towards the end of next week it is looking like there'll be brief interludes of cold and mild air but this could change. The models are going for high pressure situated close to the middle of the atlantic which could result in a changeable pattern that fluctuates between cold and mild spells but as always at this range a different pattern altogether could emerge.

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