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A Winter's Tale

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Posts posted by A Winter's Tale

  1. FEBRUARY - DETAILED FORECAST

    First week: Starting cold and bright followed by a brief interlude of milder, wetter conditions before a return to cold, showery conditions with snow in the N and W

    Second week: Cold and settled to begin with then a mild wetter interlude before a return to cold and settled conditions.

    Third week: Largely cold with settled conditions in the north and at times unsettled in south, highest risk of snow in eastern areas

    Final week: Starting cold before unsettled conditions brings a breakdown with a change to temperatures closer to average and changeable weather conditions.

  2. Good evening. Well, isn't wild out there with the wind beginning to pick up and combining with spell of rain has made for a some really raw conditions but there was a spectacular colour to the overcast sky at sunset. And a really wild night is in store, especially further north with the hebridean islands and nw highlands and northern isles at risk of some damaging gusts. The good news is that it will turn colder at the end of the week andall is ticking along steadily for some decent seasonal conditions further into February.

  3. It's now as white as it has been during this cold spell. It's a shame that the snow is now starting to stop but at least this cold spell had a decent heavy snowfall and some lying snow at its finale but snowfall and a covering of the white stuff hasn't been a rare sight during the past two weeks and I would have hoped for something just a little more significant. The atlantic is coming back the potential for snow in brief cooler incursions can't be ruled out and I feel quite confident of another go at a cold spell in February.

  4. This pic is one of my favourites from today. You could have mistaken it for it being Nethy Bridge or Grantown on Spey, but no, those hills are less than a mile away from the border of North Lanarkshire, 7 miles from Cumbernauld, 11 miles from Glasgow city centre and 13 miles from Falkirk. There is no place that could offer a view like that within 11 miles of the city centre of London. Some other good pics of Ben Ledi, the Fintry Hills and Dumgoyne. I couldn't see Ben Lomond, the Arrochar Alps nor the Crianlarich hills because of poor visibility. Hopefully it will be even whiter tomorrow.

    gallery_12424_1261_667431.jpg

  5. Amber warning for frontal snowfall. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map A decent cold spell needs a decent snowfall, fingers-crossed the finale will be great. Glasgow airport has had 5 days with snowfall in a row, the last time there was 5 or more days of snowfall was in the late Nov/early Dec spell when there was 8 consecutive snowfall days. I wonder if there'll be a snowfall tonight, further snow on Friday and into Saturday to make 8 consecutive snowfall days. Also,the cold spell should continue on Saturday and in some sense Sunday aswell with maximum temperatures largely struggling to exceed 5C.

  6. I had a fantastic time in the Campsies this afternoon with some stunning winter scenery and skies aswell as icicles. It's a shame I didn't have the camera but I hope to take some pictures tomorrow afternoon before the breakdown which could be a snowy one here and in many other areas. Turnng less cold and milder with wet and windy conditions into the weekend and probably into next week but we are back into the regime in which there are variety of feasable outcomes that are infront of us - lots to play for still. Also, amazing pictures from Amurlee!!!

  7. Another cold day here and it seems like some of the coldest temperatures of the spell may occur during the coming days. The breakdown will occur on Friday, there could be a snowfall to come with it but with the way that this cold spell has been, we can only be sure of what will happen until it actually arrives. Not an easy situation for forecasting beyond Friday. There could be some heavy rain and strong winds depending on the position and track of depressions, we may stay relatively cool with with the possibility of upper air temperatures below 0C but there should be at least a spell of much milder temperatures under the warm sector, especially during next week. We can't tell how mild, wet, windy it will be and nor can we tell what sort of synoptics we'll have in Europe and in other influential parts of the NH. I remain hopefull of HLB over Greenland into February and some of the signs are looking good but it could easily turn out differently. My current perspective on things, is that we'll enter a less cold and much changeable period from the weekend and for much of next week but it will be a tricky period as the synoptics re-adjust following the current pattern we are now in. The model outlook would consequently remain messy and variable for a while. But I believe that as time goes by we'll see the models toying with various evolutions as the northern hemispheric pattern corresponing with the SSW effects on the troposphere will become more established, and into February, if all goes well, we'll end up with a favourable set-up to HLB. It's all early days, but the potential is there for February. Personally, I'd love to see high pressure sat right over Greenland allowing for possibly a more significant and enjoyable cold spell than the current one - and if that were to happen, then it could be quite something. We are overdue a notably cold and snowy February and some of us are overdue another decent or significant snow event. There are no certainties, and we could still get something out of February without prolonged HLB. And luckily for us, our prospects for wintry weather extends well into Spring. But despite how frustrating this spell has been for a decent snowfall, I'm glad that this isn't the same sort of situation we would have been 6 years ago, with a decent snowfall already in the bag in early December, some decent cold spells aswell then it's all up to February delivering a snowfall to remember and enough cold temperatures to have a below average overall winter temperature.

  8. Aye mild start and end could balance out 2 cold - but at the end of the day *not* exceptionally so - weeks.

    Often wonder why there's been a relative decline (it seems to me) of certain weather types that haven't been seen around for a while. A bog standard north-westerly would be one. And the much missed WNWerly that could funnel decent snow showers and dump a few inches eastwards in the central belt.

    Almost reminiscing there like they're endangered bird species.

    I can still remember as far back as December 1999 which was a good example of cold zonality. I would love to experience a month like January 1984. If we could have 20 days of December with really potent cold zonality, followed by a late December 1995, a January like 1962 then a February with potent cold spells and snowfalls mixed with some mild spells would just about make my dream winter.

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