A Winter's Tale

Saddened to hear the news of the helicopter crash - I hope any fatalities are kept to a minimum. Weatherwise, here it was a decent, fresh day (quite chilly) with some pleasant patches of blue sky and a very wintry looking dusk followed by a chilly and clear evening. I'm pleased to look at the models and see a trend for cold or even wintry conditions in early December with some impressive charts and runs.

A similar day to yesterday with grey, benign winter conditions. Yesterday's high was 2C and after a low of -7C a couple of days earlier, those values have equalled the lowest maximum/minimum values of the entirety of the 2011/2012 season. So far today's high is 1C at the airport - currently the joint coldest of the year. It will be a shame to lose this spell of winter weather but it has been a decent period of early winter weather in what has been a November to look back on. Potentially a return to cooler weather for the last couple of days before we start winter. Although the mood in the MT has not been all that enthusiastic about the prospect of zonality, the first half of December looks like being of interest to us with the potential for cold zonality. Early December last year saw some lying snow staying on the ground for a few days. A frontal snowfall followed by crisp, clear, cold and settled winter weather made for some festive spell. The year before was quite similar except the snow was more confined to western areas thanks to some NWly interludes. It would be a pleasure to at least have some snow on the ground during the run-up to Christmas and so too a fair-share of some chilly/cold weather. The details from the models vary from each run but there is a decent prospect of some form of cold-zonality and this opens up the possibilities for snow showers in polar maritime incursions. Yes, it might not be a blocked, sustained, potent cold spell scenario but this sort of set-up is what gives us a shot at cold and wintry weather during the season when there isn't any HLB on the horizon. It may not be the best scenario for everyone but this sort of set-up should give a good number of areas a chance of seeing some falling snow and during more potent spells there could be some more significant, accumulating snow. Northern and western away from the coast tend to do pretty well. In more central areas and around Glasgow in the past NWly incursions can be the best source for snow - although, snow is never a simple thing around here. Certainly, there's potential for the first half of December.

Looks like a wee running track between Santa Claus' house and Marseille Judging by the 850s it seems there's a snail race going on!

Certainly a better chance tomorrow. Despite today's sunshine in Bearsden this afternoon it had look and feel of a near ice-day (a really fantastic day of proper winter sunshine and blue sky), today's maximum at the airport was 4C so perhaps in foggy conditions it may have been closer to freezing. Certainly, last night was one of the coldest of this year and within the top 5 coldest November minima in the past 15 years with low of -7C. Currently -2C at the airport so if skies remain largely clear and if the temperature is below -3C by midnight then I would suspect that in foggy conditions we could see one of the coldest days of the year. But I'm expecting the maximum to be somewhere between 1C and 3C.

Coldest night since April and it's nice to see -5C at Glasgow airport again this year. I wonder how low it will drop before dawn? No fog just now but if there is some fog tomorrow morning then it would keep the temperature below 0C. Hopefully the maximum stays below 5C for the first time this season.

Lovely sunny winter's day. The maximum still hasn't managed to stay below 5C at the airport, instead a maximum of 6C briefly in the sunshine - maybe a better chance tomorrow. Certainly the sky has look of a very cold night ahead - I wouldn't be surprised if the temperature drops to -5C for the first time since April.

A decent day with the highlight being a spectacular sunset with the remains of shower clouds having a wintry, orange reflection of the setting sun. A decent wintry looking sky with some scattered and thin strips of cloud - quite a windy evening with occasionally strong gusts. Looking settled for much of the next 5-10 days with some of lowest maximum values of the season so far - although crucial details regarding fog, cloud and clear skies associated with the high pressure is yet to be confirmed. Regarding further snow prospects this month, at the moment it seems pretty unlikely to achieve another shot at arctic air but anything can pop up in the models at this evening (the GFS) in particular has shown the surge of arctic air into Europe next week edging slightly closer to the British Isles due to westward progress of the high pressure on each run. However, it does seem that the high would sink but at least this should give us some fairly seasonal and benign winter conditions although it may turn less cold later with more atlantic air getting into the mix. I suppose this is better than 'a mild zonal outlook', however an outlook cold zonality would be nice to have by the start of December. The last frame of the ECM 12z also exhibits the possibility of a brief northerly incursion.

A beautiful winter's day with a maximum of 4C although I suspect with incoming low pressure the temperature will rise above 5C by midnight. Down to 1C but thin, pale grey/blue cloud is starting to roll in. Good to see parts of Aberdeenshire got some snow last night - it looks like some woke up to a nice wintry scene this morning .

I am absolutely delighted to have seen some snow today - November snow is a good acolade to begin the season but to have it before the 20th is amazing. This wintry and cold weather has put 2013 amongst 2005, 2008 and 2010 and after the cold start and with further cold weather to come this month is looking like a notably chilly one to look back on. Hopefully some anticyclonic weather will continue the cold theme and it would be even better if this leads to something more special. Some really wintry scenes on the traffic cams and the radar shows a feature to the far north bringing plenty of snow. It will be interesting to see what this does overnight.

Monday 18th November - Snow shower from the NW late in the day - No lying snow Thursday 5th December - Snow showers from the NW - Lying snow of a dusting Friday 6th December - Snow flurry from the NW and some patchy snow from the west - No lying snow Thursday 19th December - Snow shower from the west in the morning - No lying snow Sunday 22nd December - Heavy snow shower from the west - No lying snow Tuesday 24th December - Snow showers from the west - Lying snow of a dusting Friday 27th December - Some wet snow in the early hours from a band from the SW - No lying snow Saturday 28th December* - Some sleet in the afternoon in showers from the west - No lying snow Saturday 11th January - A snow shower overnight - No lying snow Sunday 12th January - A spell of snow in the evening on the leading edge of a front from the west - No lying snow. Thursday 23rd January - Some wet snow showers from the west - no lying snow. Friday 31st - A spell of frontal snow from the west - no lying snow. Saturday 1st February - heavy snow from organised showers from the sw in the early hours - lying snow of a dusting on the grass. Tuesday 11th February - frontal snow in the morning from the west followed by snow showers from the west. Lying snow of a dusting. Wednesday 12th February - snow showers from sw in early hours and wet frontal snow from the south in the afternoon - no lying snow. Friday 14th February - some wet snow from a front from the south - no lying snow Friday 7th march - snow showers from the west - no lying snow Sunday 23rd march - snow shower from the nw - no lying snow

It is SNOWING!!!!

There was ice on the car tops two hours ago but by the morning it'll be a real ice rink out there. A sleet shower passed through an hour ago with plenty of sleety stuff falling on the cars but it was hard to tell if there was any proper snow. Hopefully more of us will catch the showers tonight. Up north, the traffic cams are impressive with some lying snow.

A shower just passed through here. Started as rain, some icy stuff falling on surfaces and towards the end there might have been some proper snowflakes. Glasgow airport reported first snow of the season.

Lovely, cold, clear and sunny winter's day with a few a small showers. If any shower that arrives here from now on should be wintry but my only concern is the lack of precipitation. It seems like the majority of the showers will be around the W and N Highlands and SW Scotland (maybe a few coming off the Moray Firth) so fingers crossed for more widespread shower activity. Tomorrow should be a colder day (possibly the first sub 5C max here and in some places the maximum could struggle to get above freezing). Less in the way of shower activity away from the NW and NE. Later, an area of low pressure will move into the NW and sweep south. Fingers crossed it will produce front-edge snowfall for most of us but perhaps our best chance could be the back of the cold front on Wednesday. It's messy but some areas (and certainly the high ground) will see snow and we are already in the first proper cold spell of the season with more winter weather ahead of us in the coming days. With regards to the models, expect anything to come up considering the lack of confidence in the outlook. But it is encouraging to see the ECM maintain the cold and blocked theme with the potential for something much more special.

What a dramatic 36hrs it has been for the models with dramatic variations from day to day, run to run and model to model. Some of the models are struggling with subtle complications (at quite reliable time frames) and such small details have major implications on evolving synoptics and, inevitably, the mood in the MT. But putting aside the great swings in the output the bottom line is (and has been) for an early cold blast during the first part of the week (and securing 2013 a place along with 2010, 2005, 2001... as Novembers with notable spells of winter weather) and for the rest of the week it looks fairly cold (at least at the surface). High pressure looks likely to end up close to us (the implications on our weather is varied, but generally cold for the time of year). If the models can't handle important details within 120hrs then I would advise against buying exactly what the models do with the synoptics later this week. The door is still open for high pressure to migrate to Greenland but no one can know for sure if or when this happens because of so many factors such as atlantic lows, the strength or positioning of the PV and countless other things. You never know, this week or so could be a precursor to something special but we should be more than pleased at the weather we have infront of us next week and the interest there currently is in the models. Sub -5C uppers look set to arrive and sink south during Monday with an increasing risk of wintry precipitation to lower levels and it would be great if the snow can visit all of us at some stage during the week. Like every year NAE charts, NMM, radar, Fax charts and lamp posts will be in use during the spell. It will be fascinating to see the sort and nature of features appearing on the fax charts and how good the convection will be. Then, later on Tuesday we have a wee feature moving in off the atlantic and at the moment, it looks like this at least will bring snow on its leading edge to many areas but with a few adjustments this could end up being a fairly widespread and significant snow event. Let's see what the ECM brings. BRACE YOURSELVES!

March this year had a mean below 2C and there's a possibility that November could have a sub 3C mean. Since records began this has only happened 5 times.

A pleasant day and a spectacular wintry sunset with pink/orange/peach/purple cirrus clouds against the blue evening sky. Failed to reach double digits. During the first 10 days, this happened on 9 occasions - since 1973, this has never happened before in November at the airport. It's great to see the first proper, arctic sourced cold spell of the season. This incursion early next week doesn't happen every year in November (and November snow isn't a perennial event for everyone aswell). It would be even more pleasing if we all see some snow during next week. The last time I saw snow here in November was in 2010 - the first accumilations arriving late on the 26th and before that the earliest I had seen lying snow was briefly on the 25th Nov 2005. This spell will sure bring winter excitement into the thread and with a bit of luck it might bring some very early lying snow for some. The cold, fresh air and crisp conditions should make things feel and look very festive aswell as greatly adding to the cool weather we've achieved so far this month. Thereafter, looking at the conditions presented by the models - some frost, fog and cold, crisp conditions again would make for a fairly traditional, cold November ending with some settled, quiet winter weather without the snow and potency we'd be more likely to experience later in the season. Synoptically, it is 'gripping' again with some very decent and solid signs. However how such factors evolve during the days will create more model drama. This feels familiar, roughly this time last year - without a lot of solid stratospheric support - we witnessed high pressure make progress into interesting areas. There was a small window for 'big-freeze' like synoptics/conditions but instead the model saga went on and the result was a nice, festive, cold start to the winter with high pressure ending up just to our north. At the moment, I'd say things look a lot more promising for a more significant cold/or wintry start to winter than last year there are many hurdles in the way and options on the table. If we don't achieve a proper Greenland high the first time round, then it's likely that the interest in the models will continue with a possibility of further attempts. LS this evening has posted a few charts going back to Nov 2010 when around 5 days before the cold spell really got going, synoptically it looked promising with blocking already in place but it did take time for the conditions to follow. The GFS 12z looked pretty good with the WAA into Greenland during an earlier stage - fingers crossed for more upgrades and support from other models during future runs. The high looks like moving towards Scandinavia - possibly liking with the Russian high - on some runs. ECM 12z and some other runs offer stunning synoptics with winds coming from the east but with lack of a cold pool over the continent. Such charts would bring unbelievable conditions during the middle of winter. We would need a section of the polar vortex to plunge south into the continent and then we would really be in business. BUS recently posted about 'GOB' and how the ECM 12z at face value doesn't look that great - but looking at the wider picture, any block that sets up around Scandinavia or Iceland could potentially retrograde to Greenland. Anyway, some decent winter conditions for late November is on the way - including some snow - and the winter model-watching madness has well and truly started.

Coldest day since late March with a maximum of 6C - more like winter than early November. Already 8 days with the temperature failing to reach 10C: Looking at recent years with single-figure maxima during the first 10 days of November: 2012 - 7 2011 - 2 2010 - 6 2009 - 6 2008 - 5 2007 - 0 2006 - 2 2005 - 0 2004 - 0 2003 - 1 2002 - 3 2001 - 2 2000 - 8 A pretty good start to November this year - making up for the lack of cold conditions earlier in the autumn. A fairly traditional start too with plenty of changeable conditions offering a mix of sunshine, showers, cool, fresh days and clear, crisp nights - which has been enjoyable. Good to hear that there has been enough snow on the Cairngorm mountain for an early start to 2013/2014 skiing season. Just now it is a really cold, crisp November evening - absolutely clear and calm after some wonderful pale colours earlier in the twilight. Already -2C at the airport so a cold night is on the cards with a subsequent calm, clear, cold but bright start to Remembrance Sunday. Again, daytime temperatures should struggle but increasing cloud cover then rain from a front should see the temperatures rise - followed by a mild Monday with clearer conditions spreading from the NW. Tuesday should see a return to cool, fresh, showery air . I suspect around the 10th-15th, we should see a mixture of frontal, mild, cool, showery and settled conditions with mid-atlantic anti-cyclones moving east - slowly making progress further north - into Europe. We've had a cool start and at the moment there's no indication of any prolonged mild spell on the horizon - instead, there is a continued frequency for cool, changeable spells and there are hints of some potentially more interesting cold spells during a time when we traditionally see the coldest of the November weather. We are a long way from a November 2010 spell (although that possibility isn't a million miles away) but given the current theme across the models, there should be a number of shots at cold spells given the influence of the mid-atlantic high. They could be fleeting, but nevertheless, it should continue the cool theme to our weather and if things materialise nicely then we could be offered the first 'significant' cold spell of the winter that could deliver snow to some parts. The models show the MAH wanting to move northwards. The above chart however is an example of how brief cool spells is a likelyhood, BUT, the high pressure makes northward progress a bit to late for our liking as it moves into Europe. We need high pressure on the other side of the atlantic to be placed a little further north and then be pushed upwards. In that scenario, we could end up in a more than meaningful cold and wintry situation. At this stage, the likelyhood is such as spell would be brief but if high pressure could achieve a significant foothold over/or around Greenland then we could really be in the business. Certainly, where we stand now, model watching for what may unfold later this month will be interesting - the impact of the MAH in particular and the nature of resulting conditions.

I think I've seen a couple of flashes of lightning over Glasgow.

A very cold night with a low of -3C. A mostly cloudy day with some freezing cold rain. Now with plenty of showers in the area it's very wintry scene with a mix of clear, pale late afternoon sky and some purple/grey shower clouds and brighter colours where the remaining sunlight shines. So far the maximum temperature at the airport is 5C - quite exceptional for 5th November. Hopefully today will be the first of the winter with temperature failing to get higher than 5C. I've just come back from a walk and it is baltic out there. I couldn't see the Campsie hills but I wonder if there's any snow on them.

The coldest temperature since April 6th with a low of -3C and the first proper crisp, sparkling, frosty morning of the autumn. Another day with the maximum in single figures and more glorious November sunshine and chilly clear blue skies. The sun has now gone below the horizon and the twilight sky has a cold, sharp quality of pale light blue. Now 5C and another cold evening and night to come but a front should arrive from the west during the early hours - snow falling to relatively low levels of 200m. A fairly typical start to November - quite similar to this time last year - but nonetheless it is pleasing to have this after a somewhat extended summer so far this autumn.

A nice day here with sunshine and showers. Now a chilly, clear evening with the temperature already down to 4C. A cold night to come across many areas with a widespread frost likely.

First snow of the season reported at Loch Glascarnoch. A driech November day but it was great to have a proper cold-feeling autumn day. Maximum of 7C at the airport was the coldest since the middle of April. It's been a nice fresh, partly clear November evening with the sound of fireworks, glimpses of the starry night sky as patchy, thin, wisps of thin/faint cloud drifts east across the sky.

A cold, starry night after a changeable, fresh first day of November with a mix of bright and clear spells and showers. Hopefully there'll be another frost to the add the tally for this autumn - probably the first widespread risk of frost this season and maybe in some rural areas, we could see the coldest temperature since the Spring. Tomorrow could also be the first winter-feeling day of the season with a front bringing plenty of rain and suppressing daytime maximum temperatures. The maximum here and across many other areas should fail to reach 10C for the first time since Spring whilst in places such as Braemar we could see some wintry values such as 3C during the height of the day aswell as some notable snowfall on the high ground. So for now, all is good with some good-old chilly November weather. Hopefully we'll accumulate a decent tally of cool late autumn conditions come the end of the month.

A nice calm, clear, cool final night of October 2013. It was an uneventful October with not a lot to remember it for (other than the storm making *or made by* the news in southern Britain). Not a complete right-off with regards to fresh, cool autumn weather ( 2 air frosts at Glasgow airport) but there was very much less of the chilly conditions that dominated October last year. A mild start (and mild overall) but recently it has been standard late October conditions. And despite the lacking of some cooler October weather, to me the conditions have been more or less close to what we'd all expect for the time of year. Now a shower has arrived to start November off. I've always liked November despite it being famed for lots of rain and wind and lacking extremes in temperatures. But I enjoy the light at this time of year, the colour of the sky and clouds during calmer/clearer periods on Bonfire night and of course the more noticeable chill in the air with the knowledge that winter is coming. Last November was pretty chilly. This year, for the first half of the month, the atlantic is king in a very unsettled, low-pressure dominated, changeable and zonal outlook. This combined with probably some 'cooler' weather than what we've seen so far this autumn then that should make for a seasonal start to November. As we go through this month the risk of winter weather potential increases - and for us in Scotland, zonal weather can deliver the goods if we're lucky with the potency of polar westerlies. As ever, I suspect we have to be patient to get our first taste of and best bits of winter. We should have our fair share of run-of-the mill cold and snowy spells throughout the winter, however, concerning significant and prolonged winter weather then any likelihood for this is later in the winter if the many key-factors fall in place. But with past-experience and as we all know great things can arise from periods of normal, atlantic-dominated weather (2009 and 2010 rings a bell). The Scottish 1981-2010 mean temperature for November is 4.3C. I'll say we'll end up with 4.9C this year. As we're now entering the busy period for the forum, how about having a Scottish monthly mean temperature game for kilted members. Post your entry (deadline Bonfire night) and then see how close it gets to the final value.