A Winter's Tale

The wind is picking up now and in the heavy rain there was some wet snowflakes mixed.

Getting stormier with some strong gusts and occasionally flickering lights - heavy, driving rain too. The Christmas Eve storm thankfully didn't turn out to be too serious for many. I hope everyone has a fantastic Christmas and fingers crossed for some snow too.

A little bit of wet snow here. Other than a few strong gusts it has been nothing more than a bit breezy.

Nothing notably windy just yet. Just now the ground has a white dusting - sounds like hail in heavier bursts but looks like graupel and lighter spells it looks like light snow.

A very cloudy and wet day. It has been on the calm side but tomorrow will be a very different story. We record some of the lowest air pressure on record and the synoptics offer the potential for something exceptionally powerful and potent. Today's event further south deserved the coverage it got but I think the potential in the charts for northern areas should be mentioned in the case of another early January 2012 like event - or even worse. I have the feeling that this event despite warnings and forecasts could surprise people. Whatever materialises tomorrow, the fact that we a scenario like this for Christmas Eve of all days is remarkable. This will at the very least disrupt travelling and shopping plans but I'm also expecting plenty of power cuts. This sort of weather is fascinating but at the same time unnerving to follow. Whatever you all have planned for Christmas, I hope you all enjoy festivities safely. On top of the winds, precipitation could be wintry, certainly for the high ground and some low lying areas north of the central belt, and it would be nice to see some snow for Christmas Eve. As for Christmas Day it is looking much quieter. Not that great chance for an official white Christmas - Aberdeen does stand the best chance - with less precipitation and the uppers could be more favourable.

Quite a few flashes of lightning again.

Another really big flash over Glasgow.

I think I've just seen a flash of lightning to the sky south of Glasgow.

Currently heavy wet snow. 4th day with snow so far this month.

The wind has picked up with strong gusts coupled with heavy rain. Certainly more activity in the weather during the next 24hrs and more variability and variety upto and beyond Christmas with a more mobile and atlantic dominated pattern.

[b]DECEMBER...[/b]A mild-very mild month with long periods of south westerly winds. More unsettled in more northern and western areas with little sunshine and persistent rainfall. During the latter half of the month there may be a more progressive outlook with a trend of short cooler and showery spells - especially in northern and western areas - aswell as a risk of the odd gale. Temperatures 0.75 to 2.0C above average. CET 6.3C. Rainfall 85% of the average in southern and eastern areas, around 100% of the average further north and west. Sunshine 0-5% below in the NW, perhaps 0-5% above in SE. [b]JANUARY...[/b]A closer to average month, if not a little below average. Unsettled for much of the first half with plenty of wind and rain, a mixture of mild and cold spells (some high ground snow from time to time and occasional drier, settled days. Generally less active atlantic around mid month onwards with a trend for below average conditions during latter part of month with a risk of frost and lowland snowfall - especially in northern or even eastern areas - potential frontal snowfall in western areas towards end of month. Temperature 0.75C below to 0.25C above average. CET 3.6C. Rainfall 75-100% of the average. Sunshine 5% above average. [b]FEBRUARY...[/b]Close to average or slightly below. A return to unsettled, atlantic weather for spells but generally staying fairly cold - especially in the northern areas - and cold, anticylconic periods inbetween - occasional milder days (prominently in southern and western areas and especially for periods during the second half of the month). Temperatures 0.6 below average to 0.5 above average. CET 3.4C. Rainfall 70-95%. Sunshine 0-10% above average. DECEMBER - MORE DETAILED FORECAST Second week: Mild to very mild. Drier and some brighter conditions in more southern and eastern areas whilst more widespread and persistent cloud cover in northern and western areas with more rain and a stronger wind. Third week: Generally staying mild - more changeable with spells of wind and rain for all areas but a chance of brief, cooler interludes from the west. Final week: Staying unsettled and changeable. Brief settled spells with some frost overnight inbetween depressions - a risk of some heavy rain and gales. Fairly mild but a chance of a brief northerly towards the end of the month. JANUARY - MORE DETAILED FORECAST First week: Very unsettled with wet and windy conditions. Some colder days with a risk of snow in the north but also some milder air at times too. Second week: Starting unsettled with some wet and windy conditions - then becoming a little quieter and cooler with maybe a risk of snow towards the end of the period. Third week: Starting fairly settled and cold with some frost and some snow at times. Becoming a bit more unsettled from the west but staying quite chilly with a risk of further snow in the north. Final week: Changeable to begin with some chilly conditions at times - especially in the north - but it will turn more settled and much colder with potentially harsh frosts and some snow. February - more detailed forecast. First week. Unsettled with some spells of rain from showers and fronts and some strong winds at times. Temperatures close to or slightly above average. Second week. Initially very wet and windy but turning a settled from the south bringing a risk of frost before turning wet, windy and mild. Third week. Unsettled and chilly in the north, settled and mild in the se. Generally unsettled with more wet and windy conditions but with some drier - and in the north - colder interludes. Final week. Remaining unsettled - particularly in the nw - but perhaps drier in the se at times. Further changeable conditions with some colder interludes possible.

The final frame of the ECM 12z tonight. It's not brilliant but it's a far better looking chart than most on offer!

Mid December to mid January during the past two winters included prolonged mild weather. Thank god that this cold spell has ensured this December with some wintry weather to speak of but the next couple of weeks look really dire. The only hope we have is that the high could bring us some surface cold, and perhaps in future runs the position/duration of the high might change. Another positive thing is that most patterns don't last much longer than 2 weeks, so there is a glimmer of hope for something more festive around Christmas and we've still got two more months of winter to make up for a potentially very mild December.

Light snow just now.

A few flakes falling here recently on a very cold and quiet December day. Satisfying to have had at least a taste of wintry weather aswell as securing a few December snowfalls and the bonus of a brief covering before it turns milder for the coming week(s). Hopefully that high to blasted area of high pressure will b****r off sometime in the next two weeks - a return to zonality or cold anticyclonic conditions would be very welcome.

First lying snow of the season with a nice dusting on ground.

Another snow shower passed through not too long ago and on the back garden it left a slight dusting and also a covering ontop of the cars. A super cold, December twilight with a crescent moon.

A lovely snow flurry has just passed through. Great to see the fluffy snow flakes floating down then flying around in some windy bursts. A really windy night I couldn't get any sleep til about 4am - others in the house barely got to sleep at all. At the time it seemed pretty bad but I suppose I slept through the worst of it. It seems that it was really severe across the entire nation - we should have had a red warning. A lovely tranquil winter's day with much colder, brighter and clearer conditions with some light and brief snow flurries. The recent one which is just easing lasted around 10mins and at times was fairly moderate. Now some of that wintry afternoon blue sky is coming back from the NW.

I would imagine the met office will upgrade the warnings sometime tomorrow. But I think we should have seen an amber warning by now given the consistency and intensity of the low on today's models. If more southern parts of the UK were in for such a rush-hour then without doubt the met office would've issued a red warning. Anyone else who thinks this storm could be worthy of a red warning?

Some interesting differences between 12Z and 18Z GFS. Lunchtime Thursday windy on both runs but 18z has the strongest winds a little further east. GFS 18z has more of an atlantic influence on Friday: 18z 12z As a result there is a chance for snow in some western parts for a time on Friday. 18z 12z

You can't help but feel that this easterly being tracked in the MT is just imaginary - must be some terrible hallucination from 'That ECM' last year. For now, it looks like we're heading into a mild middle-third of December but the duration and just how mild it might get is up to grabs. I get the impression that this could be a case of no pain, no gain as there is a possibility that we might have to endure a milder period before the pattern evolves into something more favourable. Perhaps this could put us in a decent position for the latter part of December (quite a contrast to previous years) but there's a long to go until we can be sure about anything. What seems to have bypassed the discussion in the MT is the severity of Thursday's event. I think in the next 24hrs we'll see more coverage in the media and enhanced warnings from the met about the wind. Hopefully there'll be greater clarity on the precipitation we'll see as the front moves south and whether there could be some snow accompanying the strong winds. As LS pointed earlier, a little front should edge eastwards late on Friday and there is the potential for snow, albeit pretty brief and light.

Thursday morning and afternoon really is looking lively and nasty across large parts of the country. During the morning the west coast and western isles probably bearing the brunt of the winds and perhaps Moray and Aberdeenshire during the first part of the afternoon. We need to keep a close eye on this low as it could produce the most widespread and significant storm since early January last year. Aswell as strong winds the front sweeping south looks set to bring heavy and widespread precipitation and this would only make the conditions even worse. Low dew points and uppers should certainly result in significant snowfall and blizzard conditions on higher ground. It's difficult to judge how low the snow line will be but perhaps some of the higher routes could see challenging conditions for a time. And I wouldn't be surprised if the precip is wintry to lower levels on the back edge of the front. After that it looks like snow showers will be present around parts of Aberdeenshire, Moray, the Cairngorms the highlands north of Inverness/Great Glen, parts of the western highlands and Argyll (perhaps falling as rain nearer the coast) and maybe some precipitation reaching SW parts of Dumfries and Galloway. It will be interesting to see the quality of convection late Thursday/early Friday and perhaps more of us will end up seeing at least one snow shower before it turns milder later.

Thursday afternoon has certainly caught my eye. Very tightly packed isobars, sub -6C uppers and widespread and heavy precipitation. Some places could in for gale force winds and on the higher ground blizzard conditions are possible.

Some exciting potential for cold and wintry weather for a time next week but its important to remain cautious as details probably will change between now and then. But at least it looks like we're set to get some seasonal weather at the start of the festive period.

4.2C please