EastAnglian
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Posts posted by EastAnglian
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4 minutes ago, madmunch said:
what time point generally do the experts on here start to believe is 'reliable' out of interest?
I am no expert just have a long and painful experience of model watching. The absolute maximum would be 5 days but I would say 2/3 was safer. If you look at other forecasts on TV, for example, take note of how far they are going ahead that will give you an idea of how confident the professionals are. Basically, if it can go wrong it will.
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7 minutes ago, carinthian said:
UKMO run this morning just horrible. Get the slug pellets out.
C
Slug as in euro high pressure and mild south to southeasterly winds?
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27 minutes ago, Seasonal weather required said:
BFTE2 - not interested - go away your not welcome .
How can you tell that will be a blizzard from a simple graphic. Looks more like a shower to me and with max temp of 5 degrees it should not be a problem. Also that is Sunday at 0700 and as has been said many times on this site the computer generated forecasts are about as useful as a chocolate teapot!
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1 minute ago, stodge said:
Yet the GFS seems to be moving in the opposite direction with an increasingly zonal looking outlook with a re-juventated Atlantic and the jet kicking back north as the Azores HP builds.
I'm also truck by the resilience of the PV rumours of whose demise might have been exaggerated. I don't think it was finished off the SSW and the warmings since and hangs around until well into the month before starting to finally dissipate. This is I think pointing to a return to a more zonal evolution rather than northern blocking.
Forgive my possible ignorance, but is this disagreement between the two models indicative of further down-welling in the upper atmosphere. I though we had similar disagreements before the last cold spell which I understood to be a symptom of the state of the atmosphere being unusual and resulting in model disagreement from model to model and run to run?
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21 minutes ago, JamesL said:
I've got to admit I've always liked Derek and his enthusiasm for cold snowy weather. I'm normally so engrossed in the charts that I don't really look at the presenter, although BBC Wales does have some pretty awful ones. Always thought Derek was decent.
Indeed it does in particular those presenters that do not know their east from the west!
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2 hours ago, Snowyowl9 said:
That's the disadvantage of cold weather,there was a mains water burst at our neighbours farm yesterday.
Indeed the problems around here are all down to main pipe bursts. Was it that cold or are the pipes very shallow and near the surface? I really did not think that -5 or -6 would cause such problems, hay ho....
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6 hours ago, Ed Stone said:
No much fun is it? We had the same thing in Glenurquhart just after Xmas 1995; night-time minima of -25C freeze everything!
No it is not, just shows how a small negative temp causes mayhem.
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Burst pipes in Blaenau so no water since Saturday over night. Dwr Cymru delivering bottled water, so out to join the queue!
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Just now, Missdolly said:
Everything covered here now in Merthyr , showers getting heavier ! I'm not sure what dept it will be yet we shall see ?
I think you mean depth!
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-2.4 max temp today light snow all morning, then some very hefty showers this afternoon adding to cover 8cm yesterday 2cm overnight and now another 5cm. Temp now (17:48) -6 degrees. We shall see what happens tomorrow and Friday but if I have a choice which I don't I would prefer the major snow to stay south with the mild warm air. But we will get what we will get here in Blaenau Ffestiniog.
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2 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:
Snowing in parts of NW England Totally unexpected and not forecast just goes to show the weather will do what it wants dispite what the models show.
C.S
Is that on high ground by any chance, the weather forecast was for rain with hill snow so I think that was expected for this morning at least. It is snowing here north Wales now but we are at 208m asl so not unexpected and it will turn back to rain as milder air pushes in later today.
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Looks like the front will be well to the east by the time the -8 850hpa air comes in. Judging by the NW Radar and 850hpa overlay.
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Rain now turned to heavy snow, very wet but just beginning to settle on some surfaces.
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12 minutes ago, andymusic said:
yeah, but your in North Wales so that adds a few metres lol
You would hope so, or rather I would. I was spitting feathers reading your post on how much snow you have had today. But it looks like the showers are showing up in the north this afternoon. As the wind has switched around fro NW to WNW then W and today SW it makes sense that the showers would show up your end first
Anyway good luck to us all for the next few weeks regarding snow and cold. -
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3 minutes ago, andymusic said:
nice one Jay - would you believe for all the weather enthusiasm I have and knowledge (lol) I don't have one either and that one looks cracking - I can then report back me stupidly low temps perched on this flippin mountain lol
You and me both Andy, although my mountain is not quite as high as yours 208 vs 240m asl. Thanks Jay will order one.
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1 hour ago, Jayfromcardiff said:
Nice little weather station off eBay, very accurate and only £11.99. at least I can get an accurate temp reading now.
Hi I am looking for a weather station, do you have any other details or a link? What external sensors will it require and are they wireless?
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1 minute ago, bradythemole said:
How do you find the weather type graphic EA? Sorry can’t find it anyway. Sounds interesting, Ian F did say about potential from small lows but marginal
On the MetO website regional forecast for my location if you click on the weather warning it will open under the main line. I would not get too excited I suspect it has not been updated as it contradicts everything else which has been shown
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3 minutes ago, Cwmbran Eira said:
You have to laugh.
I have to say the new BBC graphics are seriously misleading. Countyfile last night had snow across most of Wales for Tuesday morning but Schafernaker said possible hill snow.
If you look at the weather type graphic underneath the warning. It shows sleet with temperature of 2 degrees at 0800 then snow until 1300 with temps of 2 falling to 1 degree. Confusing for a bear of little brain like me!
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Had a lot of showers here this morning, no snow just hail. Ground covered but it is melting. Oh well!
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15 minutes ago, freeze for all said:
Tbh I take these with a pinch of salt lately, we've had more warnings this winter than we have in the previous 10 winters and not once has the warning been worth it. These days a bit of wind, rain, snow flurry or frost and it's warning central!! I do think sometimes has forecasting actually advanced in the last 15 years
The MetO guys are dammed if they do dammed if they don't . There is a chance of snow showers tomorrow morning and one or two could be heavy. So I would suggest that they are perfectly correct to warn of the possibility and remember on the web site warning there will be a probability matrix to try and qualify the threat.
Would I be right in thinking that you have been less than impressed with the results in your location for previous warnings? I hope you have better luck this time.
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Snowing again here, moderate snowfall. Picture below is from 10am yesterday morning needless to say it is a lot deeper coverage now. Pity it is all going to thaw tonight/tomorrow.
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Snow over night woke up to another 2 inches or so this morning, very cold and light winds here in BF. filled in the thaw from yesterday lunchtime looks very good out there.
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Stopped snowing here now and the wind has increased. Must be several inches of lying snow out there and it is still cold.
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1 minute ago, Jayne aka Pembsgal said:
Not sticking here either
It is settling here I said on all surfaces which are not slated/gritted so pavement and road everything else fine now 2 possibly 4cm covering.
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Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion
in Regional
Posted · Edited by EastAnglian
Indeed do you remember a user called Armosferic (or could be ph...) I use to watch that board with all "the will it snow in my backyard posts", happy days. Might have been 1999 for me so 20 years ago where does the time go?