EastAnglian
-
Posts
128 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by EastAnglian
-
-
2 hours ago, keithlucky said:
Could well see a dusting in places over Wales Sunday night into monday morning ,I agree about blocking to the East ,we were forcasted a mild swest flow this week ,but we are seeing colder weather than that,
6I have seen other model representation of that possibility one more extensive and one less so and a further one with just rain so you pay you money and takes your choice. I would discount the possibility, it will be a pleasant surprise if it happens.
-
13 hours ago, Pembroke Dangler said:
Gona stick my neck out and say we will have snow towards the back end of next week with a trough disrupting similar to 2013. The models are starting to toy with the idea before climatology kicks in a bit latter on but they often do because of where we are. The block out east is not going anywhere trust me
I'm not very experienced with interpreting these models but I would have though that they are moving towards the Atlantic troughs being held out west of the UK next week. I think they are trending now toward the block holding on. That will inevitably trigger the "it's burning up Winter" and "we need a zonal reset" posts. But from my experience, a zonal reset lasts weeks not just a few days in general and that will burn up the remaining time. So I am always of the opinion - be careful what you wish for.
-
12 minutes ago, mcweather said:
Not really MP-R Seasonality's description is a pretty good analogy of the U.K. Climate which is on the whole a mild maritime one with our weather coming at us on a west to east track off the Atlantic. Yes the text books may say we can be affected by six different airmass types but the reality is the ones from the west or southwest or south will always largely out weigh those from the north, east or southeast in any given year. Which of course is the reason that this place goes into meltdown when a sustained flow from the north or east is shown.
Fergie often mentions in his posts about the longer range models returning to climatology and our climatology is without question a mild maritime one and that climatolgy means the dice are very much loaded against sustained cold and snow especially in lowland Britain. Which Is why despite being in my late fifties I can count the genuinely long cold and/or snowy periods in my life on the fingers of two hands.
Yes agree our climate is a mild maritime climate, I am in my early sixties and I agree there have not been that many notable cold periods over the years. My profile shows I have been a member since 2010 but I have been watching the fiorum for much longer than that. In fact I also remember the old BBC board with it's constant will it snow in my back yard type posts. Perhaps simpler times and less letdowns or is that rose tinted glassess? I do get the impression that the med term model output is messy and there is intermittant model agreement, but I will keep watching and hoping, perhaps dissapointment is easier to take as you get older.
-
9
-
-
What a change, it snowed quite hard on Friday night and covered the ground to a depth of about 3-4cm. In the morning the snow had all melted and the air tempertaure was 3 degrees. This morning we are 8 degrees!
Oh well byby winter for now but not for too long lets hope.
-
2 minutes ago, freeze for all said:
Just started snowing here
Just stopped here in Blaenau, still more up stream on the radar.
-
5 minutes ago, freeze for all said:
They change so much I think anything is possible, 1 thing I've noticed over the years is b4 we have a good snowfall we'll always have these marginal snow events leading up to it a week or 2 b4 the main event happens. Fingers crossed it's 1 of those events b4 the main course lol
Difficult to type but keeping my fingers crossed as well
-
4 hours ago, benb said:
Latest GFS showing high pressure to NW and solid northerly for next weekend... worth keeping an eye on.
Given the chopping and changes on the models do you think this one solution will be any more likley to verify?
-
Much heavier showers now but of soft hail, not snow at present, (polysterene balls!) there is a strteam of showers running NE to SE down the Irish sea which seem to have Bleanau's name on them.
-
Just on the edge of another snow shower here, main body of the shower missed to N and NE of Bleanau but the flakes outside my window were almost horizontal. I bet they wont touch the ground for some distance down the A470
-
2 hours ago, welshwizard said:
Looks like the easterly may be off the cards now from latest models, noticed lots moaning on other forums,some saying if it does what it says then winters over ha ha. In my eyes winter here is normally Jan and first week of Feb. Can go outside this time scale mind. But they not liking the future weather right now. Wind and rain from West. With some frost and fog.
I think a slack easterly flow is still on the cards after a milder blip Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, which was always forcast. I think the models are now suggesting the high pressure will be too far south rather than the northern position as previous runs, but it will still be cold (frosty by night and crisp and sunny by day) I would take that over last years mild train. Each run is only a best guess snapshot could all change on the next run and then again on ther run after that. Very good reason for not taking each run at face value or as a forcast.
-
44 minutes ago, Cwmbran Eira said:
Proper slippery out so be careful! Already seen 1 car in a hedge.
Almost went A over T in the works car park too
Indeed it is, I nearly went B over A several times on the pavement when I went out this morning to move my car. Slightly confused by the temp reading 3 degrees with a light dusting of snow on a base of hail and soft hail still windy and cloudy with at present light snoiw flurries. The temp clearley must not have got down to freezing last night or it went up and down like a yo yo. Still nice to see the snow.
-
1
-
-
8 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:
HIRLAM
Do we have access to the model, I can see the homepage but no signup or link to the model output?
Thanks.
-
Rain turning to wet snow now in Bleanau, dewpoint and air temp still too high but flling now. Looking at the radar it looks like the precipitation will be away south and east by the time the cold air gets in.
-
First wintery shower just starting here in Bleanau soft hail I think but sky very dark to the north. Small shower cell on the radar but it is a start.
-
3
-
-
8 minutes ago, jvenge said:
Well, stating the obvious, but the closer you get to the Christmas period, the more trustworthy the output will become ;-)
Yes of course but agreemant from model to model would be nice let alone run to run. Clutching at straws I hope the next model runs go back to the cold and frosty Christmas of the weekend, but a certain gentlemans law would indicate that the most unpalatable outcome is most likley. Glass half empty and all that.
-
How many different versions of the Christmas period have the models shown this week? Why the sam hill should this version be any more crediable? I don't think anybody said four week for zonality, apologies if they did but in my experience it does last some time, hope I am wrong won't be the first or last time!
-
1
-
-
Don't the models GFS in particular under estimate what it takes to blow the block away and they invariably prove to be more stubbon. The front moving from the west off ther Atlantic now is stalling againts the block. Is that what you guys call trough disruption? But it seems the energy is going North or at least the front is would that be correct? Also form the NH views it looks like the PV is set up over the Artic and not northern Caneda as it was last yesr, so would I be right in thinking that was more favourable for us?
-
1
-
-
Sunny here in North west Wales fairly mild still at 8 degrees but much more cheerful. Next week changing on the models again! Best stratergy is to take all the model flips and flops with a large pinch of salt and wait and see.
-
7 minutes ago, Seasonality said:
Amusing how the same people who have been busy rubbishing long range forecasts are now gleefully crowing about one.
Precisely, the short range models are pointing to European blocking and a frosty Christmas which I for one would be happy with. I just hope the models are over their constant flip flopping now!
-
12 minutes ago, Grimers said:
Well, I'd think if that chart is showing uppers then it'd be too warm for snow anyway.
I think you will find it is showing London 2m temperatures.
-
1
-
-
4 minutes ago, MattHugo said:
Just a quick one and further to some of the discussions from last night, but the 00Z EC ENS maintain the general lack of any substantial northern blocking out to 360hrs. There are some attempts at the re-development of higher pressure over the UK and the overal patterns look to have a meridional-esque (poor phrase I know!) look to them moving forward. However, once we have enjoyed some further frosts, dry and sunny weather in the coming days and through into early next week, then IMO the sooner we lose this blocking high pressure and almost reset/get out of this blocking pattern the better. If the high pressure was clearly more stable over the UK and/or able to retrogress and build northwards, as most who are looking for cold weather would want, then it would be of worth to 'keep it around'. However, confidence is certainly increasing for the high to decline to allow at least more northern and western areas of the UK to become more unsettled and clearly promote a general SW'ly air flow as next week progresses with +ve temp anoms developing from the middle of next week onwards.
The sooner we get rid of the high pressure, once it declines into the near Continent, then from experience the better we will be off at then essentially 'moving on' and seeing what patterns may well arrive upstream within the N Atlantic and further afield. One positive to take from the EC Clusters mind is there is little signal for 'raging zonality' with a strong tropospheric PV over Greenland, again the overal N Hem pattern within the longer range EC ENS is quite amplified and meridional which can always lead to some last minute interesting developments. The EC Monthly overnight will be very interesting indeed to see if it maintains a long standing signal now for this blocking regime through the middle and latter half of December. Still a 'make or break' situation if you ask me within the next 7 to 10 days with regards to how the last third, or so, of December will progress, but a case of enjoy the dry, cold and crisp weather when it returns to many areas over the weekend and into the weekend, but then hope that the main high pressure to the S and SE of the UK declines quickly and we can then 'move on'...
Regards to all,
Matt.
Be careful what you wish for I remember many other similar situations where people called for a high to decline and a pattern reset starting with SW's but what we got was a high located off the NW of France and constant mild southerlies. I believe somebody named that set up it began with a B I think.I know no model is showing that yet but beware, with so much flipping and flopping of the deterministic models and the changes to the long range models, plus the 60N NH profile looks to me as if anything is possible.
-
2
-
-
Sorry I have no idea how I managed that but the last post was not Fergieweathers question. Apologies Ian I am sure you would not need to ask such a basic question, but statistically and mathematically resetting verification stats does not make sense to me.
-
On 08/11/2016 at 12:30, fergieweather said:
Excuse the question but is that true that after an upgrade a models verification statistics effectively start again? I would have expected that not to be the case.
-
Had a few hail showers here in Blaenau Ffestiniog (208m asl) today but nothing out of the ordinary. I would love that snow risk map to be correct but can't remember the last time one was.
Still looking at the track of the LP it looks to be too far east and tracking ENE so will miss most of North Wales, shame. But as others have pointed out Winter has not started yet.
Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion
in Regional
Posted
Really, well we do have a series of Operational runs going for cold or very cold options, but absolutely no support from their respective ENS runs. I know the building blocks are in place as we have seen many times before this winter and FA is the result as far as snow is concerned. Indeed let's hope the OPs are correct but I would not pin your hopes on this unless you live in continental Europe. Fingers crossed for something epic.