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    Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Surrey

    10 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    GFS brings back the chance of 40’C on Tuesday. Shows what could happen if the heat hangs on for just a few more hours.

    14FAE623-5E86-4FD5-9B11-48CBF97C78FD.jpeg

    Would be crazy to set a new high temperature somewhere around London Monday for it to be lost the next day to areas further North. If that happens gotta be a once in 1000 year event. 

     

    That said climate change and global warming means the odds of beating it within a 1000 years are 1/1 odds!

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    12z ICON has another very close call with regards to how the heat moves with it withdrawing eastwards during Tuesday. It lingers just long enough to ensure a hot day for a decent chunk of the country, temps drop away pretty readily into the early evening.

    36c appears to be the 15z Tuesday max temperature. 

    Could colder air pushing in be due to showers/storms breaking out to? GFS had something showing on the 06z

    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Jimmyh said:

    Have to say those temps are if anything an upgrade and lasts longer into Tuesday. Truly quite stunning charts 

    Nothing unusual though really. Met have me down for 31 Monday 33 Tuesday. We have already had that here this year. May have been 20 years ago but not in our modern day climate. Glad the 40c plus charts have gone though. While it doesn't phase me, I know lots will struggle with that level of heat 

    I've experienced 39c and 42c 5 days in a row in Egypt and also experienced 35c and 36c here. Not really un common now in the modern climate. 

    Ibiza were we are going week after next is running at 32c flat everyday with no minimum below 25c.

    I love the heat given my spainish blood so don't really do to bad in it.

    Heck, on Monday when Heathrow recored 32c we were in the middle of high rises in the beating sun moving 2 tonnes of green waste. 

     

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Surrey

    5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Latest BBC has 33c for London on Sunday. Not worth an amber warning if you ask me, we had 32c yesterday and 31c today without one. Monday perhaps....even the 6z ensemble has tailed back down to a maximum of 17c. Hopefully skewed by some cooler members that are barking up the wrong tree.

    GFS brings in cooler air temps because it wants to break out some heavy rain/thunderstorms associated with the low bringing the heat in and pushing up through the UK and into the North Sea.

    I guess it maybe skewing a few things and that it will all be very hit and miss if its thunderstorms and not a general rain band wrapped around the south of the low. 

    If it was to happen then places under any rain could be a lot cooler than someone who avoids all the rain with milky clear skies...

    • Like 2

    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Morning all.

    Still looking very hot at weekend but the tone down has started as a few of us were saying yesterday. Maxes on the GFS this morning around 36c in the hot spots. Which is still VERY HOT

    44c and those crazy charts are going to happen at some point in the next 5 years but we are not there yet I don't think. You are talking about something that has not occurred in the last 100 plus years here maybe even since records began for our part of the world. 

    Its no surprise that we have had one of the driest and hottest periods in my part of the world this summer. Climate change and global warming really starting to make itself present in our lives. Its only going to get worse.

    Still think we will threaten the hottest temp but going to be very close and will require clear skies with no muck etc. 

     

     

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

    Well this post wont be popular, except perhaps on the heathaters thread! lol..

    These charts suggest that after the heat event, next week returns to pretty much average. A moderate Westerly upper flow with only a slight anomaly over Southern areas. This suggests a mobile pattern, and not one with a lengthy spell of high pressure (or low) domination.

     

    814day.03.gif

    Think you will find even us heat lovers in the south want something to fall from the sky so a suggestion of a zonal spell with rain is music to our ears.

     

    Surprised by 06z GFS well I shouldn't be. I thought it was going to run down the fast pump route with less hot temperatures but it cant seem to make its mind up. 

    Still a long way of and a lot of runs to get through before we firm up details however it does look likely that temperature records are going to fall. 

    Crazy the North South spilt this year with regards to climate. 

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

    It never flipped. The 00z ensembles supported the same outcome, it was the operational that went against the grain by sweeping the heat away quicker.

    A flip is normally described for when the majority of an ensemble suite changes.

    It goes for the hotter option once more as opposed to being the "cooler" run

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    ECM peaking at 34c next Sunday

    ECMOPUK00_186_5.thumb.png.3c257a3c4813e2a5796e3f6c1420db95.png

    There or there abouts is where I see this going. Unless the GFS flips back to the hotter solution over the next few days usually its pretty good at picking up the pattern before others. Although it equally can flip back. 

    I'm banking on a push east of the main heat. We don't need it or want it here in the south. We need rain in any form!! Thunderstorms showers frontal whatever just give us some rain 

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Surrey

    2 hours ago, londonblizzard said:

    GFS 0Z is a plume downgrade. Despite that, 40C still clipping the kent coast:

    00_186_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.c01748b70f420d23418d421e805881cb.png

    Good, like many in the south east. Its not rained in 2-3 months here and wild fires are breaking out. There was a large one last week that nearly threatened our nursery! To close for comfort  

    I was wondering how long it would be before we see a push east of the main heat. The 40c plus charts were in my opinion over the top. Yes I do still think 40c will happen in the south half of the UK within the next 5 years but I don't think we are there yet. 

    The setup needs to be  near perfect and while we do have dry ground building heat the southerly drawn flow, to draw up the really hot uppers is something that usually gets pushed east the closer we get more clipping the south east far corner.

    Usually once the GFS picks up on the solution it will run with it, if after Tuesday it brings them back then there would be a cause for concern.

    Still likely 35-38c could be recorded. 

     

    • Like 4

    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Not bad last night bit to far west they actually developed over me  and the skies were wicked followed by very heavy rain 

    Saw lots of distance flashes and also heard thunder which was a surprise

    Next week looks superb 

    We seem to be in a rinse and reapet pattern a few days blip and back to warm again 

    The washout weekends vanish and get replaced with some form of breakdown then a re build of Heat.

    It's not really a surprise given how warm  mainland Europe is

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