[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

4 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

I’m sure these figures are underplaying the shower activity off the North sea, but pretty widespread snow, and deep in many places.

I feel we have a stinking ECM about to rope out!! 

I know these charts are no to be taken too seriously, but that said, if we have cold easterly winds across most of the country with precipitation moving up from the South West how does Cornwall and Devon stay clear of any snow. Seems implausible to me, unless there is some warmth mixed in with it? 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

15 minutes ago, mbrothers said:

Suddenly this thread had become the ‘when will the cold spell that hasn’t arrived yet breakdown thread’ .

Lol! I was thinking exactly the same. Makes no sense to me at all! I don’t understand why anyone want to look at a breakdown at day 8 when we have so much excitement before then. Surely such charts have the same chance of verifying as a day 8 nirvana chart does?  

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

I'd be surprised if the cold lasts much beyond next week...deep cold on our shores rarely lasts beyond 5 days-week, but apparently the SSW warmings continue and yes with such warmth over southern Europe and deep cold to the north there's going to be a big dumping somewhere! Bring it to East Anglia I say

It’s definitely hard but not impossible, such a set up, like we have approaching and in what is still in the heart of winter could easily be extended in duration. Those in the 80s lasted for a least 2 weeks (as I recall), the really lengthy ones like 47 and 63 are for sure, a lot rarer, but again not impossible. I would say, in a world of extremes, we have as much chance seeing this becoming a historical spell of winter weather as we do it lasting just a week for the former 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

BBC weather just now, is on board with Easterly winds across all of the country from the weekend  

 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

2 hours ago, sheikhy said:

According the gfs i get 30 cms of snow wtf!!!!yeh right!!

You must have been close in 1991, I remember it well as was living with my parents (LE14 postcode) and had at least a foot with drifts being much deeper 

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

48 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

A fantastic update from the Met Office as we head towards the 12z runs. 

Link to the full forecast: https://youtu.be/56IWx1I4odg

 

Thanks for posting, very informative. If it wasn't for COVID I would be driving up to North East Scotland, looks like they'll be having outrageous amounts of snow!  I just hope that once the cold air filters down over the country and to us snow starved in the South the precipitation doesn't disappear! After the amount of rain we have had to endure this winter that really would be a severe kick in the you know whats! 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

5 minutes ago, Catacol said:

There are signs in the pacific of a substantive increase in AAM. Never easy to predict exactly how this indicator will develop, but let’s take a stab. Mountain torque has spiked significantly

and we have a rise in relative tendency already in the bank

. 

The GWO orbit has begin the rise from the more Niña orbit that took hold in mid January

and if Ventrice’s GFS based predictor is anything close to accurate we may be about to see a quite significant rise into a higher orbit

What does all this gobbledygook mean? Putting it simply, westerlies at the equator are predicted to increase as the MJO moves into that key 7/8/1 zone which lies in the western Pacific. Westerlies here will help suppress the sub tropical ridges that are mostly responsible for +NAO patterns in our sector, and the downstream wave pattern produced by a surge in these westerlies strongly favours northern blocking.

 Putting this into a broader big winter context, the distressed vortex and dislocation to Asia through January was able to override the tropospheric signal which at that point had convection in the Indian Ocean and a downstream forcing which would have usually promoted a +NAO signature. See the seasonals for the impact. But seasonals do not predict SSW events well at all, and we have come to know that a SSW event is our golden trump card - never guaranteed to bring in Siberia, but guaranteed to throw the hemispheric pattern into chaos. We have reaped the benefits of this despite the disappointing failure to split, and the northern part of the country has seen cold and a lot of snow....and the south has seen some too. And now....with the vortex still in distress and currently undergoing another hit to its strength we have the troposphere coming to our aid.

So...unless reasonable interpretation of what’s happening in the Pacific is way off we can expect back to back cold months this season, and maybe in February we can tap into a period of sustained and severe cold. January was a real rollercoaster for weather lovers. So much happened....so much potential and excitement and twists and turns. February will be no different I suspect. 

 

 

 

 

Amazing post Catacol, than you. I found it really very helpful in trying to understand some the large array of forces involved with the weather and getting cold to our shores 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

1 hour ago, Pennine Ten Foot Drifts said:

So, not wanting to be Mr Grumpy, but having been on here model watching for 16 (!) years:

FI = anything beyond T180, and what Operational models are showing is the slight favourite amongst a wide range of possible outcomes. no point viewing these for any local detail, or really even with any great confidence.

T144 - T180 = most likely broad synoptic pattern i.e. likely to be warmer / colder / wetter / drier than average, but in terms of local detail, barely more reliable than FI.

T72 - T144 = broad synoptic pattern likely to be accurate (but not 'nailed on'!). Detail starting to be defined, but for a small area such as the UK, in a predominantly maritime influenced region, confidence in accuracy of detail is still not high. And it mustn't be forgotten that what are actually relatively minor changes to the broader pattern can still have significant changes for UK localities, so even at this range, for 'my location' confidence in just how much warmer / colder / wetter / drier than average is not going to be very high at all.

T36 - T72 = confidence in broad synoptic pattern is high, confidence in local forecast is moderate to high dependent on the volatility of the forecast pattern i.e. a forecast large high pressure can give pretty high confidence of at least dry weather locally (although, for example, cloud amounts even at this range cannot be forecast with absolute certainty), whereas what we're looking at now i.e. highly volatile synoptics, means even at this range confidence of local weather conditions is no better than moderate (and in this case probably lower than that).

T12 - T36 = broad synoptic pattern highly likely to have been resolved, fairly high confidence in local detail, but again, as for T36 - 72, dependent on the type of synoptics being forecast, changes can happen.

T0 - T12 = radar watching!

So, for the upcoming 10 days, trying to predict where snow may fall next weekend is at this juncture pretty futile, (and even now, it's quite possible the synoptics will change such that nowhere outside the usual northern upland suspects see any at all). I'd say, assuming the currently modelled synoptics play out broadly as forecast, the soonest we'll be able to confidently start anticipating widespread lowland snow will be Wednesday.

Great post  and I couldn’t agree more. My feet are firmly on the ground, I’ll only start to get excited at the prospect of an Easterly if it is still showing at T12- T36, even then I’ll still be twitching. Seen too many near misses over the years, which have led to much disappointment 

[Model output discussion 24/01/21]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Re ensembles...wouldn’t usually look at them for close range but this caught my eye for snow tomorrow at midday in the south...

I would be amazed if that was to be the case. It was 14 degrees here yesterday and 12 today so it would be mean a significant drop in temps if that was to be the case. I only see rain for us down here for the time being, may get lucky around the 5-7th Feb but that’s a million miles off meteorologically so could all be different again by then... 

[Model output discussion 24/01/21]

3 hours ago, Battleground Snow said:

ECM at 120,

It shows multiple snow events over the next few days too.

 

The most depressing chart of the day, that snow depth one! What is it with the M4 South 

[Model output discussion 24/01/21]

1 hour ago, BLIZZARDMAN said:

Don’t take anything in FI as facts, I was supposed to have a sleety mess according to most models on sunday this time last week but I did just fine! Upgrades nearly always appear nearer the time.

As do downgrades for those residing in the South West! 

[Model output discussion 24/01/21]

21 minutes ago, Griff said:

 

This is in line with the ao / nao charts forecasting a rise back towards neutral (so trending positive) before dipping negative again. So no real surprises as we head into February. Interest follows in what happens with the next strat warming that Marco P and others have been discussing. 

If there is a another SSW and a split of the vortex, taking into account the lag time, does this mean the CFS could be close to the mark for an historically cold March? I can’t recall who posted charts previously of this, but assume it could be a real possibility 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

2 hours ago, BARRY said:

Rain Rain Rain thats all we get

Yep! It’s definitely an all or nothing location! My parents were telling me about the Beast from the East in 2018 that although didn’t last long did give them 12ft snow drifts. The only snow fix I’m getting so far this winter is looking at the videos and photos in the regionals 

[Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

3 hours ago, fizz511 said:

Well, you’re not allowed to have the coast AND snow - that’s just greedy

Very true, Lol!  I have a lot of fond memories of Knowle, both my grandparents lived there for many years, they are sadly no longer alive but are buried in the local church cemetery. Enjoy the snow, I’m not too jealous 

[Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

Still not seen a flake this winter  what hurts more, is the Midlands (West and East) is where I’m usually based! 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

BBC Weather were on the money here, rained on and off for most of the night, very heavy at times and still raining now! It seems a miracle is required for snow down these parts  
 

Hopefully many of you will get you enjoy a nice covering today 

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

24 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GFS goes a long way North but not very east tomorrow..Looks like Peterborough ~ Leicester is the peak..where is !!! Shakey!!!

Behind his green door!  I'll get my coat...

[North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards]

34 minutes ago, Dexter said:

Omg. Could these flakes be any bigger!!

Please grab some photos or video for us craving snow down south 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

2 minutes ago, Certain kind of fool said:

Met office suggesting cold rain here which seems in line with some of modelling (and would not be a massive surprise to anyone in this neck of the woods). I get what mapantz was saying, from my point of view a few flakes mixed with rain doesn’t excite me that much. 
 

my children would love just to see some wet flakes falling. Hey ho.

down here we really need an easterly with proper cold bedded in and then get lucky with a feature popping up. Nothing else really seems to cut it here.

Exactly the same in this area too!  And I completely agree re the Easterly Tomasz Schafernaker on BBC weather just said South West coasts can expect rain / sleet rather than snow, so I for one won’t be rushing to get up in the morning as you can pretty much guarantee that’s what we’ll get here. I always live in hope though, forever the optimists 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

Beautiful frost this morning, still on all the fields, but has just started raining! You couldn’t make it up! 

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

1 hour ago, MJB said:

Widespread snow south of the M4 

One can dream 

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

BBC weather very boyant about snow only for Scotland with the rest of the UK sinking under a deluge of rain for much of the week. I admire the optimism in the Model thread but would have money on a bartlett verifying over deep cold at the moment. I would love to be wrong, as personally I don't enjoy having spring weather in winter months and vice versa 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

1 hour ago, Dancerwithwings said:

That would be in line with GEFS pert 20, by Thursday large parts of England would be buried

More likely to need an ark than a shovel in the South 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

Heavy rain kept me awake for most of last night!  I don’t know how any snow lovers living in the South West cope every Winter, it would drive me crackers... 

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Cracking UKMO chart showing ampification towards Greenland and a snow maker to our East which should help  our friends in the East Riding

Kick it down South, we've not seen a flake!  What's worse is my Bros lives in Sheffield, been snowing there since 8am and he now has 10cm and is still snowing - he keeps sending me the pictures!