[Cold hunt - models and chat]

ECM - Friday 1am

GFS - Friday 1am

Slight difference in angle but the extent of snow north and south now appears to be about the same northwards with ECM a wider band including the South East.

ECM

Dang, not appearing. Anyway, it's here - https://www.tameteo.com/modeles/fr-europe-ecmwf-87.htm#072

GFS

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

3 minutes ago, snowice said:

NORTH /SOUTH? ?!

It's a little North but the major difference is it's less snowy, especially for the north Midlands. Reason being that it misses the 'wraparound' snow arriving later on Friday. Variation on a theme really.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

UKMO is quite a way short of there UKPAUL, doesn't get much north of Hull-Liverpool...and looks VERY close to the ECM in fact.

GEM suffers same issues as the GFS in its overprogressive usually, plus courser resolution.

JMA - same issue with course resolution.

NAVGEM - Same issue with course resolution.

WRF is just a variation of the GFS and uses GFS data...therefore what the op shows, the WRF will 95% time mirror it.

Its interesting that all the models with lower resolution do the same thing, all the higher resolution models are taking the system more elongated and to the south.

May be coincidence, but probably not!

Still, I'm certainly not going to just dismiss the GFS, its quite possible for it to be right and at this point within the range of the envelope for sure.

The UKMO breaks up a bit but does reach there by end of Thursday, still too far out anyway to approach it with any certainty. The supposed higher resolution models of ICON, Arpege, Hirlam, are pretty poor performers for this part of the world I’ve always found. Euro4 is pretty decent though. If Met Office forecasts shift from their current status then we’d know if their internal models are seeing different but nothing so far on that.

 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Just now, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

 

still time for adjustments north / south of the main frontal rain / snowfall and also the chance of snow showers feeding in from the NE / E if winds end up going in that direction

How did did you do that? What’s the secret button I have to press?!?

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not sure if you can, see your point but dont forget there will be different intensities, subtle changes from member to member will make a difference, trust me this will be further South, much weaker, more fragmented, and thinner, i have seen it too many times before.

If anything you get snow bands diminishing as more mixed signals take over. To keep them solid at a three day range is a pretty good show of consistency.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

10 minutes ago, kold weather said:

What I think is more telling is the GFSP has shifted south.

That literally leaves the GFS against every other model. now its not impossible the GFS is right, however when we add into the mix the known bias the GFS OP has with pushing energy far too fast north and east, it begins to look like the GFS may be going up the wrong path here.

WRF, UKMO (the middle ground and most likely, stopping just short of North Yorkshire), GEM, JMA, even the mighty NAVGEM etc. are akin to GFS. Action after the pivot is more diverse so when that happens there’s a greater split. I’m not trying to be contrary, just as I pointed out in recent days that the supposed corrections south for tomorrow were only 50/50.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not sure i would use a mean for PPN charts tbh, the band is always going to be much thicker than in reality.

At this range there is little scatter. Four or so of the perturbations have it further south but a similar number take it further north.

I would have posted the Panel GEFS to show that but that isn’t possible - or is there a way of doing that?

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

GFS mean for Thursday. Very consistent. Not even thinking of shifting.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Also the band seems more organised!!what are the chances that tomorrows snow ends up giving way more than thursdays

Well the site that shall not be named just upgraded things overnight to sixteen(!!) hours of heavy snow here until tomorrow afternoon. Even if only a quarter right that’s good enough for me.

The ICON is a bit of an attention seeker, it flaps around backwards and forwards in a way that other short term models don’t as a rule. I stick to EURO4, UKMO and nothing else for the short term.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Clear northerm shift in the last 24 hours for tonight and tomorrow’s system from the ICON. 

Now

Yesterday

Although the day before that, it looks like back to square one!

 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

16 minutes ago, DEYS(Kent) said:

-3 850s in this set up is not crud.. 

Even the insanely optimistic GFSP snow charts baulk at -3 for falling snow. The chances go up markedly for the south if the system gets north then pivots and slows as the lower 850s and the snow wrapped around it follows the system sinking into Europe. I lived south of London for twenty years, angle of trajectory is a real help when there’s no embedded cold.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

GFS system on Thursday loses a bit of oomph when it pivots, so not so snowy as it moves back. Hopefully not a trend and something to look for on the ensembles which were pretty gung ho about it this morning.

[Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion]

25 minutes ago, cowdog said:

Might want to keep an eye on the radar tonight of you on the western edges of the region / high Pennines, as heavy showers are looking possible. Snow showers are likely to stay that way for the next few days irrespective of the front(s) tomorrow.

Met Office web site now has us listing as Heavy Snow from 9pm tonight, due to this shower activity. Won't get much into the region but they usually make it to Bradford.

It appears to be being repelled by what, at first, seems to be a weak ridge of high pressure. There may well be a factor arriving (at last) from the SSW downwelling making that possible. GFS just tries to send more and more lows through to little effect, what we really want to see is one of them disrupt south and undercut leading to the fabled Scandi High.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

6 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:

Looks like hardly anything all in all looking at that chart. Also for the midlands north looks good for high ground.

The figures are per hour, it isn't moving that quickly so that a location can be in their snow zone for a few hours. The fly in the ointment is that temperatures in general may just be above freezing, so how much lays is open to question.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Latest icon 9z run  showing Tuesdays snow at 4pm   More of a wintry mix at this point  South of the Midlands

Makes sense of the latest Met Office local forecast where showers have suddenly been upgraded to heavy snow before midday (although they are also suggesting some more heavy stuff in the early hours as well, and I'm really not sure where that's coming from). To be honest, the folks at the Met Office are as good a guide as any at the moment.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

GFS Ensemble now indicating another potential snow event on Sunday going into Monday (map for my location, other locations are available...)

 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

10 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

So it seems the Icon against most other models in extent of the northwards extent of the heavy/meaningful precipitation thursday

How accurate is this model? GFS at <80h should shawly have a good grasp on this. 

It corrected North for the Tuesday event by about 50-100 miles or so.

(shhh, don't tell anyone. I don't think they noticed.....)

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

6 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

They all look good for us mate. I expected a southern shift which may still happen of course. We will see but it hasn’t happened on the overnight runs 

Thursday isn't the type of channel runner which does often go south. This also interacts with another weaker system and the pivot keeps it further north.

Peak District is potentially the sweet spot as others have said. Book a trip to Buxton.....

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

The two interacting lows and the pivot point on Thursday’s event is going to be an interesting one, the 18z runs are having them meet slightly earlier, which is pushing the PPN towards Scotland as they start to swing around.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - worst thing is its still throwing energy into the Atlantic when it doesn't even exist!!

It’s actually going in reverse after 192h. That 960 low being literally squeezed out of existence.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That seems very unlikely - but the north of England and Scotland stay under the coldest part of the troughing and will definitely pick up snowfalls from time to time , especially where an onshore flow exists or convergence zones establish plus troughs which aren’t currently picked up. I would much prefer to be where you are than in the  Home Counties  as far as snowfall is concerned. 

Up here any corrections aren’t usually south but equally south or north. Bitter experience on that one. Given that the latest runs are pushing them north my major concern is it moving that way at the moment (though Scots will be feeling differently!) The Tuesday feature is doing the same on the ICON but that is narrowing it down gradually given its proximity.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

18 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Just before ECM, a look at the Tuesday event, cumulative snow charts from ARPEGE and ICON-EU 12z:

Bizarre!  Couldn't be more different.  I'm going with ICON-EU even though I don't rate it as a model, my preference for trying to predict snow is the HIRLAM but it is not in range until tomorrow 0z run.   

So much going on, this is WINTER 

Looking through through the other models, ICON has support from the NETWX model but the others (WRF, both GFS, GEM) are akin to the ARPEGE.

Hopefully people are looking at all the models, not just the ones posted that look good for their area. Nothing is definite here......

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

13 minutes ago, shaky said:

What about the midlands steve?

Not Steve but up to 4 ins on Tuesday right up to the Pennines (though no further north) and maybe up to 6 ins in favoured spots on Thu into Fri, also going up to the North East and maybe Borders.

EDIT: I’m at elevation, so probably less in low lying areas.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Plenty of PPN is way north of the Tuesday system. The Pennines and areas East and West look to do just as well as further South and without that element of marginality. Look for the next warnings to extend further north and west.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

2 minutes ago, Liima said:

ECM looks marginal for the south on Tuesday, IMO.

850s are much better on GFS.

Even when considering that -6 might not be needed the UKMO, GFSP and ECM are flirting with marginality for those closer to the system. -2 or even 0 850s around it. Snow/rain/snow maybe?