ukpaul

The GFS would most definitely lead to Alpine snow in the last few days of November at the very least, it may change yes but you can only go off what is predicted.

I miss shuffling through pavements full of damp leaves, opening the front door to get a lovely blast of warmth, the feel of rain as I walk around, the smell of smoke mixing with frosty air....... The glory of Britain's weather is the seasons, to have them being so similar is just depressing.

It's been 2011 particularly, Jan & Feb weren't wintry, Spring nearly got there but summer wasn't summery and autumn wasn't autumnal. If we have a non wintry December it will have felt like the flattest year of weather in my experience.

Believe me I tried, I would have had to cut out at least a season to make it fit so gave up.

What GFS FI is well known for is its seemingly default position of overcooking lows coming in from the Atlantic. I'm not sure why it does that but, if you want zonality, GFS is usually a better bet.

My preferences are too long to fit in the limit apparently. Put it under interests instead but that doesn't show up on posts.

Well I spoke too soon about lack of agreement! Looks like, for this point in time at least, both GFS and ECM are giving us a similar path. Very different to the 12z in the high res (what's the betting that FI goes back to its default supercharged lows?) EDIT: well it's a bit of a dog's breakfast in FI actually, with a deep cold plunge in Scandi. right at the end.

I deliberately keep out of it during summer, I suffer in heat but I'm not so stupid as to waltz into threads and rejoice in how cool and rainy it is. I get the impression that some come here just to antagonise the majority who want the seasons to be as they should be. Anyway, back to model output and the lack of agreement is interesting at this point, I think I'm going to have to check out how the other longer term models such as BOM and GEM are doing as a comparison.

240h GFS looks relatively similar to ECM now but it's from that point and further into the wilds of FI it appears to want to go back to its earlier option of raging lows to our North. That's way too far in the future to be seen as probable but there appears to be some cross model agreement now for before that (I think BOM, GEM and JMA were tending to the ECM solution).

"'all you need to cool down is a nice refreshing drink'," Oh dear, that really does show no understanding of the health problems that come with hot weather, just appreciate that you are different and can cope with something that many others can't.

It means that the polar vortex will be split and/or move away from its normal home (at the pole, obviously).

It's on uk.sci.weather - this is what he said - "However, I have heard rumours from a big modern building in Exeter that a sudden stratospheric major warming is a possibility this year, might throw a spanner in the works." By 'this year' I'm presuming he's meaning before the end of December.

GEFS ensemble members showing a continual rise in number of potential snow events in Scotland for the week of 15th-22nd November, latest run was over half of them showing this (yesterday's were a quarter to a third), also a few are showing snow potential further south. A change is on the way, clearly, it's just a matter of time. I'll be interested to see if Will Hand's hint that Exeter are expecting a sudden stratospheric warming event is given any more detail. For those who want some fun look at perturbation number 10.

"Rather than explaining how its possible to escape from hot or cold weather, i prefer to look at it from an enjoyment point of view, and what type of weather is more conducive to enjoying the outdoors." By that criteria cold weather easily, I warm up quickly but, in warm weather, that means I just get far too hot, I try and keep out of hot sun as I dehydrate quickly, so on hot Summer days (mid twenties and above for me) I will tend to stay indoors apart from at the beginning and end of the day. I suppose that weather like we are having now is perfect for doing things outside but it's just so uninspiring..... Thundery Wintry Showers - I was in South West France in the early/mid 90s (I forget which year) when the temperature heights each day were in the nineties and sometimes above that. It affected me so badly that I never want to experience it again, I could hardly move or think straight and spent most of the day trying to submerge myself in water! Even then parts of my skin shrivelled, my earlobes looked like they were some weird form of dried fruit..... EDIT: I think it might have been July/August 1990 or maybe 1989 in fact. Time flies........

"as outside of London we rarely get temperatures that most people find uncomfortably hot, and regularly get temperatures that most find uncomfortably cold." I think people are much more varied than that, the number of days where it is too warm for me easily outnumber the similar for cold. Added to that it is easy to escape the cold but next to impossible to escape the heat.

There are about a third of the ensembles in FI now showing snow for Scotland by 15th to 20th November. There are also a number of other members where -8 850 temps are dropping down inexorably. Nothing nailed on but these are the signs to look for.

Indeed, for those who are looking there are increasing signs of a pattern change mid-November which may give wintry blasts to Scotland in the short term but which are a good set up for the easterly/north easterlies that we had last year. It's starting to show up in many members of the GEFS ensembles as well as the ECM 32 day model (apparently, reporting from someone who has access to them).

As far as I can see we haven't had November yet. Who you are angry about is the Express/Mail, they did the same with an anodyne forecast from Brian Gaze on The Weather Outlook so direct you ire at them. They do it all the time, trying to scare people about health/weather/finance and so on. I doubt that there are many who get taken in by them anymore though.

A bit like this....

That sounds like graupel (from the German) which is created by water that freezes on a falling snowflake. Often seen when the ground temperature is above freezing alongside sleet.

Very hot weather, you can't escape it except trying to blast it away with air conditioning. If I'm going to narrow it down, make that humid as well. Yeuch.....

And areas South. we had a heavy rain shower last week for about a minute, I'd forgotten what it was like. Many areas are crying out for rain but just aren't getting it, on the other hand my parents up on the Lancashire coast are begging for it to stop. The country is totally split at the moment with rain fronts stalling in the south and getting stuck over the north west.

Yes, I think Madden's off beam but attacking someone for their forecast for a month that we haven't even reached yet is just a deliberate attempt to cause an argument.

This is so important and why I find that any forecast falls short of the mark at the moment. When people have been wrong they should go back, find out why and then adjust accordingly. Whilst some forecasters are ignoring previous mistakes totally, others are, correctly, adapting but without any confidence as to what they should be focusing on.

Don't think anyone's posted the WSI forecast, essentially it's the exact opposite of Accuweather regarding severity in particular areas. So, if they can't agree on anything then what chance have we mere mortals got?! http://wsi.com/e7bd2...ase-details.htm WSI (Weather Services International) expects temperatures for the upcoming period (November-January) to average lower than normal across the UK and western mainland with above-normal temperatures common across the eastern mainland, Southeast Europe and most of the Nordic region. There are numerous indications that the cold will not be as extreme as it was during the last two winters,” said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. “The current state of the Northern Hemispheric oceans is almost identical to that observed in October 2008, which was only a moderately cold winter. Further, we have finally emerged from the unusually long lull in solar activity that likely contributed to the extreme nature of recent winters. Lastly, the multi-year tendency towards North Atlantic atmospheric blocking has already waned a bit in 2011, relative to the previous three years. This indicates that the atmosphere is likely regressing back to the mean a bit from the recent and persistent anomalous state. So, while we do expect another cold winter across UK and Western Europe, we think that the winter will be much closer to 2008-09 than 2010-11. Further, we think that the worst of the cold across Western Europe will be in December and January, and that the back-half of winter could be significantly milder.” In November, WSI sees the monthly breakdown as: Nordic Region* – Warmer than normal UK * – Colder than normal Northern Mainland* – Warmer than normal, except western France Southern Mainland *– Warmer than normal In December, WSI forecasts: Nordic Region – Warmer than normal UK – Colder than normal Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, colder than normal west Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, colder than normal west In January, WSI forecasts: Nordic Region – Warmer than normal UK – Colder than normal Northern Mainland – Colder than normal Southern Mainland – Colder than normal, except southeastern Europe and southern Iberia