Snow Run

GFS 18z: The shape of the precipitation at 1am and then 7am on Saturday morning seems to indicate a far more progressive undercut than on the 12z, together with more resistance from the block judging from the eastward extent by the morning: T+78 T+84

Popped into a meeting an hour ago and have just emerged to find 7 pages of posts to read. Did something happen?

At this juncture, it might be worth re-posting Ian's post from last Thursday: fergieweather, on 03 January 2013 - 17:13, said: A senior colleague literally just reiterated this key, key point: "No NWP will get a grip until SSW effects feed lower-down into model synthesis." Ignore -in effective sense of preventing any coronary - all GFS output post around mid-late next week. UKMO model equally showing considerable inter-run flux at longer reaches too (it goes to T+168 internally) and all of this is expected / symptomatic / characteristic of how they struggle with the complex dynamics of what is still at an incipient phase. Nothing, as yet, is offering anything surprising nor unexpected. So, please: NO MORE posts bemoaning any lack of profound cold showing at longer range of GFS, or EC, or whatever. It is all - stress ALL - considered effectively unreliable. Period. Sit tight....! 'Mid-late next week' is Weds onwards.

That reminds me, I must go and shut the stable door....

No, it's not just you! I drive over the Forest and through W Hoathly every day on the way to work at Turner's Hill, and the temp's always a degree or two colder - and you had loads more snow on Saturday than us down in the valley. It stopped here for a while, but has started again now.....but it's STILL not settling.

We've had about 45 mins of light steady snow (Murr 4-5ish) here on the Kent/Sussex border. Not exactly in line with earlier forecasts, but I'm not complaining.

Steady light snow here on the Kent/Sussex border for the last half hour or so - a very long way SE of the earlier forecasts.

Excellent one of the drifts by the fence - hope your Phormium survives the cold!

Level 8 now - 20p flakes. Time to chuck another log on the fire.

Did Robin van Persie bend over? :lol: Level 3 now. Snow run through the woods in the morning - wahey!

Wife's watching Stormchasers recorded from last night, I'm staring out the window at real weather (till MoTD starts, anyway). Level 2 down in the valley...

Well we've got Level 1 on the Murrometer now, Rusthall Sid!

Yes, none down here in Groombridge either, but kate1 in TW said she's seen flakes, and leemondo's got some up in Crowborough - confusing! I've got all three external detectors illuminated, and as yet they're still reading Murr Level 0 (perhaps they need recalibrating).

Could I have another letter please, Bob? Can't find any ensembles for C's other than Copenhagen. I'm thinking somewhere in Eastern Europe, but hoping for Cromer or Chelmsford.

Never say never! When Monty Don had to leave Gardeners' World through ill health a couple of years ago, the BBC passed on the lead presenter's job to the relatively unknown Toby Buckland. Together with Alys Fowler and Joe Swift, they developed a new garden called 'Greenacre', the artificiality of which was never popular with viewers. The programme moved towards a rather annoying Top Gear style format, possibly useful for beginners but largely content-free for the experienced gardener. This year, after prolonged protest from viewers, Monty Don is returning to present the programme from his own garden, assisted by the similarly experienced Carol Klein. Sound like the BBC's approach to weather forecast presentation - perhaps we need to apply some 'viewer power' like the gardeners! Yamkin, thanks for a fascinating summary of 1947. The probability of a repeat may be low, but there's nothing wrong with a ramp! If it does happen to any degree, I hope it's over by the time of our Half Marathon on Feb 27th. There have been a huge number of road and cross country races cancelled so far this winter, and that represents a lot of lost work for event organisers and lost income for charities.

The films of his other snow events have been taken in Belmar, New Jersey, USA. Superb video - thanks for posting (a great idea for WHEN we get our next dumping this winter....).