-
Posts
172 -
Joined
Profile Information
-
Gender
Male
-
Location
Lincs
-
Interests
Weather, photography, wildlife, gaming and rock/metal
Recent Profile Visitors
coldwinter's Achievements
-
The CFS has a very strong negative zonal wind bias, and November SSW's are as rare as hens teeth. Honestly not worth looking at IMO
- 3,859 replies
-
- 1
-
- stratosphere
- winter
-
(and 1 more)
Tagged with:
-
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
coldwinter replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I wouldnt mind it to be honest, some rain in between the warmth is perfect for growing plants! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
coldwinter replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Cracking outlook! Lots of warmth and sunshine on the way next week, hopefully the end of the desperate snow chasing for the season! High pressure looks close by for the bulk of April. Enjoy sensibly all and stay safe -
Model output discussion 02/02/20
coldwinter replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Another typical highly over amplified chart from the GEM. Probably see some Polar Maritime in the mix to end the month, capping off an absolutely woeful winter. All eyes on how the final warming will develop! -
Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!
coldwinter replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Morning all! Things going as expected really! Was never any real support for a bitter Northerly. High pressure in charge until the 24th, the a north westerly flow at times taking us into February. Good for hills in the North but little signal to suggest widely snow conducive air. -
Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!
coldwinter replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Morning all. I think a broad North westerly flow is likely for the last 5 days or so of the month, with just a chance that we can squeeze some cold enough air to give some wintryness away from hills. Best case would be a good toppler, little sign of any high lat blocking -
Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!
coldwinter replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
-
Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!
coldwinter replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A crushing morning for cold fans. Northerly has collapsed like a Jenga tower in an earthquake. High pressure close by is the favoured outcome, with hopefully some clear skies so frost/fog are on offer -
Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!
coldwinter replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It is that simple though. People do need to be realistic, the amount of hype on here at times has been laughable! Sure we could end up with a very cold northerly, but little point in getting excited until it is much closer in, our experience tells us the majority of times a big northerly is modelled it is less amplified and further east in reality, fingers are very much crossed for something but at the moment it is a lower likelihood -
Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!
coldwinter replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM flatter and further east, hence nothing of note. No surprise, this happens 99 times out of 100, of course, could still change back, but people need to be realistic -
Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!
coldwinter replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Experience tells us that the ECM evolution happens 1 time out of a hundred, this is the reality. Currently a potent northerly is a low likelihood, let's see in the coming days if we can strengthen the signal or whether it will wain which is what happens the vast majority of times. I don't think I've posted since early December as there has been no signal for anything cold since the polar maritime around the 12th, this is the reality! Let's watch and wait -
Model output discussion - late November
coldwinter replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion