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ItNeverSnowsInWindsor

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Everything posted by ItNeverSnowsInWindsor

  1. ItNeverSnowsInWindsor
    A great start by the GFS 0Z run from Xmas eve with a potent N' blast affecting all parts of the UK. A strong mid Atlantic ridge extending towards Greenland too! Similar from the GFS P too -
  2. ItNeverSnowsInWindsor
    Popcorns at the ready for the 18Z Pub run! It could be entertaining!
  3. ItNeverSnowsInWindsor
    It's about the trend that the charts are setting. There has definitely been a strong trend towards colder synoptics today. Await to see if the ECM agrees with the growing trend.
  4. ItNeverSnowsInWindsor
    Awesome run for the xmas period on the GFS 12z!
  5. ItNeverSnowsInWindsor
    Someones going to have serious eggs on their faces but the momentum is towards a cold pattern developing looking at todays models so far. The NAO is also looking to go negative..
  6. ItNeverSnowsInWindsor
    There's a growing feeling of something exceedingly cold emerging in the models in the next few runs. 12Z awaited with much anticipation! :clap:
  7. ItNeverSnowsInWindsor
    A slightly below December is still looking likely despite a few above average days popping up in the next week. The last week of December should bring the mean down to be just below.
  8. ItNeverSnowsInWindsor
    Not exactly deep snow though compared to the states getting 6 foot!
  9. ItNeverSnowsInWindsor
    Totally agree Mushy, those Synoptics are as likely to come true as someone getting 5 numbers on the lottery!
  10. ItNeverSnowsInWindsor
    I've got a bad feeling this winters Synoptics are looking more and more like a Bartlett setup with us missing out on the cold yet again! Can't see the low heights around Greenland disappearing UNLESS we get SSW in the reliable timeframe! Rant over
  11. ItNeverSnowsInWindsor
    Bets are off for a white Xmas the ensembles says it all!
  12. ItNeverSnowsInWindsor
    The warmings not going to be enough to shift the PV from Greenland especially with the SSTs around the Azores
  13. ItNeverSnowsInWindsor
    Has the GFS 18Z had a few cocktails or is it smelling the coffee and reflecting the Met office 'signal' in deep FI ?
  14. ItNeverSnowsInWindsor
    The GFS 0Z is a warm outlier from 22 Dec so I wouldn't take much notice of it after that period, Slight chance it might be setting the trend but seriously doubt it with recent developments meant to take hold in the final week of December as continually mentioned by the Met Office.
  15. ItNeverSnowsInWindsor
    The GFS 18Z looks to have had one too many ales showing an eventual NE' flow on Xmas day!
  16. ItNeverSnowsInWindsor
    No surprises there then. For S England we're still waiting for occasional charts in FI showing N' flow to verify.
  17. ItNeverSnowsInWindsor
    The current buzzword unfortunately is 'transient' cold rather than 'persistent' cold especially after looking at this mornings models. Two major flies in the ointment are the low heights in Greenland and the Azores high which continue to bring a flat uninspiring Westerly pattern. Still haven't had a 'true' Northerly down South yet. Need a miracle, aka SSW.
  18. ItNeverSnowsInWindsor
    Still too early to be predicting xmas weather with so much happening in the nearby timescales. We could all easily be in a potent N' / NW' blast as shown in the GFS 0Z output.
  19. ItNeverSnowsInWindsor
    Some big differences showing between the GFS 06Z and 00Z at T162 with a strong mid-Atlantic ridge showing in the 06Z.
  20. ItNeverSnowsInWindsor
    Wow! Good to see the 18z GFS run follow up on the 12Z. It looks like there will be good chances of some substantial snowfall on the northern hills in the next 10 days or so at least. Wish I was back up in the Pennines!
  21. ItNeverSnowsInWindsor
    Looks like the models and the Met Office are having none of the progged pattern change in the final third of December. It's a case of ifs and buts for it to happen!
  22. ItNeverSnowsInWindsor
    Let's hope the forecast comes to fruition and proves the OPI hypothesis true too. Here's hoping a spectacular white Xmas.
  23. ItNeverSnowsInWindsor
    But by the time it reaches UK, the airmass is heavily modified and it's usually borderline getting snowfall to low levels. We need a strong NW' airflow really.
  24. ItNeverSnowsInWindsor
    But is it helping us in the UK ? So far we haven't had a flake of snow since the winter before last.
  25. ItNeverSnowsInWindsor
    I just can't see any major changes in the pattern in mid-December with ridging over NE Canada forecast. Too many other over-riding factors like anomalously high SSTs in the Atlantic are in-play scuppering any chances of the Azores high retrogressing towards Greenland.
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