ItNeverSnowsInWindsor
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Posts posted by ItNeverSnowsInWindsor
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For once I'm getting excited about the 2nd half of November bringing the November CET below average and setting us up for a cold winter to follow. The background signals are all manifesting themselves nicely in the charts.
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It's currently 20.1C in Windsor in sunshine and a strongish breeze.
We just need a record breaking Winter day now!
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I think we all deserve a nice dry Spring with warm sunshine to compensate for the dreadful conditions we've all had to endure since November!
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Looks like being quite wintry further North especially with much lower North Atlantic SSTs leaving sub 528 dam air over Northern UK at times! Nothing exciting for Southern UK unfortunately in the reliable timeframe at the moment.
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The warming again appearing in the wrong locations to influence the UK favourably. Looks like a long wait until next year at least for a proper winter.
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It's been the worst winter since 1988/89, actually even worse with the misery of flooding combined! Grrrrr!!!!
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Still looks like a fleeting cold snap before the Atlantic takes charge unfortunately. What we need is blocking over Greenland/Iceland for any longetivity otherwise the jet stream will eventually just run over any blocking over Scandi.
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There's too much uncertainty with the models to be even 50% confident of a wintry outlook next week. I can see the reluctance by some posters to say it will get properly cold next week.
For e.g. the GFS 6z has backtracked somewhat with more energy going NE'. There's too many IFs and BUTs. If I see the same prognosis from UKMO at 12z tomorrow then I may be more inclined to getting excited.
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I'm getting concerned about the amount of rainfall that could fall with the current synopsis for the next week. I hope they change and the Azores high could have more of an influence by ridging with the scandinavian high.
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Meanwhile, purely out of interest at least we are not the only part of the N Hemisphere experiencing a mild Winter. 850 temp 12-14c in parts of W Canada, with not one part of Alaska north of -5c line and only 30% north of the 0c line...that must be a first for late Jan.
West is not best eh ?!
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What a ukmo!!snowy from 96 hours for many!!
Sorry but the chart @96 hrs doesn't scream snow to me at all!
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From which Model?
All the models show a stubborn SW' at 144 hrs maybe less so from the ECM.
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The damn Azores High needs to disappear or retrogress northwards if there's any hope for cold building over the UK! Absolutely shocking 144 charts
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The ECM ens show far more easterly solutions for Warsaw and Berlin this evening....................
It does look good for Europe as the extended bbc forecast for Berlin suggests sub-zero temperatures from Wednesday! Wonder what sources the BBC use for their forecasts ???
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There's a noticeable westwards displacement in the jet stream on the GFS 18z compared to the 12z around 72 hrs..
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The jet stream still looks like taking a nose dive South this time next week. It just depends if we can get some blocking established to the North to set us up for longer term cold into February.
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Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I think the next 12 hours could be crucial in terms of model output to decide whether there's momentum towards a build of pressure towards Greenland which have been hinted by developments in the Wave 1.