JamesC

We all need to move to Chicago. Absolutely nuts. 'It's snowing at over 4' an hour and we already have 13' on the ground!!! Not to mention the thunder snow.'

This happened a couple of years ago. Gave me 16 inches. To describe it as awesome would be an understatement.

I have a question, which if anyone could answer I'd be most grateful.... What conditions do we need for a thames streamer? With the amount of easterlies and cold uppers recently I'm surprised that none have kicked off, what is the reason for this? The pressure to high? No disturbances? Bad lapse rates etc.? Thanks

were i live in guildford we did not have 8cms. no where near it. more like 2-3cms at the most

Just got home from a night out in Guildford. At the most 1 inch here........not impressive... very wet snow....not far of sleet

On another note........http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-16889200

I'm about 5 miles east of Guildford. Nothing yet so I guess it must have missed me :<. There goes no snow for another winter!!!! Slits wrists...

Ye I agree, apart from the larger bursts up north the PPN does not seem to be to heavy. You can follow the track backwards to the west and there is nothing heavy coming in our direction. Don't get me wrong I'm not moaning but unless this front literally stalls above us I can't see 15cm piling up.

Nothing as of yet in Guildford......

Just had a quick look at metcheck for the rest of the week. http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/dayforecast.asp?zipcode=gu4&day=6 Quite interesting for Thursday. Showing 22cm of snow during Thursday.............wonder where it get's it's data from?

Indeed. I will be there as well..........come on you Whitesssss

I agree, the models seem far to adamant to push the block away so quickly. To be honest the 12z is a slight upgrade on the 06z, cold air stays for a day or so longer and it looks like the low in the med is slightly further north and west giving us better alignment of the HP. The -20c uppers are not to far from our shores. So close yet so far..........

Frontal snowfall.com. 12z doesn't look pretty. Block gets blasted out by +105. Still in FI though tbh.

I'm coming round even if it doesn't snow then! Those charts do look good. How good/rubbish are the models at forecasting a streamer, I don't think I've ever seen one on a model before. Or is it me being a fool?

No you are correct. The NAE is higher resolution than the GFS.

Do you think we'll get much convection tonight? Are temp gradient's, lapse rates and wind speed/direction good enough? I think tomorrow night into thurs morning has a much greater chance......still anything tonight would be a bonus!!

Yes I remember this. Absolutely awesome!

Test

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/loop/asia-1mo-loop.html Quite a cool link. You can see eastern europe being swallowed by snow.

Yes incredibly unusual, it's very rare for western europe as a whole to get uppers of this temp. The charts are showing -15c uppers heading into Spain which I have never seen before and will no doubt lead to record breaking low temp's. The point was however was that a few days ago the models were showing the HP to swing the cold pool straight over us but this has now veered southwest from Germany into France. This is due to a number of factors, for example the LP in the meditteranean being stronger than originally modelled. I read a couple of days ago that the coldest uppers ever seen in the UK were -17c (from memory so don't hold me to it). If the cold pool had come straight over us we may well have broken this and subsequently had record breaking low ground temp's following.

btw chino, what are your thoughts on a potential streamer wed night into thursday? Possible? Not possible?

The REAL cold weather/uppers look to be remaining to our east in Germany and through to Eastern France as time progresses. Again this is probably in the early stages of FI though. But the chances are we will be getting the fringes of the cold pool hitting us and not the 'meat'. Will still get very cold though over the next few days. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120131/06/84/h850t850eu.png http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120131/00/90/h850t850eu.png Would this qualify to go in OON's proposed 'moan' thread.

Ye I agree, it is frustrating with the Deep Cold Pool only a few hundred miles to our east in a couple of days. It's a shame that we have just missed a bite at the cherry. But then again we can't moan as atleast we will see some cold weather this winter and possibly some snow.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16806687 If only.......... Think Yamkin and his gritting friends would be pretty busy.

The reason why there is always a chance wintermaster is that with these synoptics there is always a possibility of streamers setting up. This happened last year and also in Feb 09 that where not really forecast (until 24hrs or so previously). If your in the model thread you will have also read at some point that forecasting snow is nigh on impossible, it depends on a varying number of factors. The facts are to wait for the cold (which is now here/coming) and then wait for the chance of snow. The uppers are easily cold enough for snow, especially once the very cold air arrives on Wednesday. At present we are see small snow showers/graupel showers with uppers of -6c to -7c (that have not been forecast) which look to be building slightly. On Wednesday night we get hit by uppers of around -12c to -13c (atleast) which will create far more convection off the north sea than we are seeing today. This COULD lead to heavy snowfall, IF other factors fall into place. This chart shows the predicted wind direction at this time. http://cdn.nwstatic....6/42/ukwind.png This would condusive to a Kent streamer (not thames streamer as the wind had a northerly component to it and is not a complete easterly). As always, I maybe wrong!!!! EDIT - Another point to note is that the chart shows that the wind strength will be relatively strong. Around 30mph coming of the North Sea, this again would be condusive towards Lake effect snow i.e. some type of streamer. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_effect_snow