The Beast From The East
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Posts posted by The Beast From The East
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Has anybody got a link to the countryfile weather forecast ? I think somebody called Terrece or something like that puts them on YouTube but I'm unable to find it.. Many thanks.
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At last , sky black and snowing lightly here in paddock wood
Sky looks full of it.
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Looking very good on the models this morning to me. Was a bit worried about Mondays snow/rain event down here but I feel there will be more potential for snow between Monday night and Wednesday coming in off the North Sea
Good week a head I feel.
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Hi Kate1, up and down like a brides nightie , that made me chuckle.
I think it's now snowing in tunbridge wells, quick nip out in the garden again lol
Lets hope Monday we get lucky .
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I can't believe you are all missing the heavy snow that's started falling outside
Just kidding but wouldn't it be nice if it was..
Hopefully sometime in the next week we will see the white fluffy stuff start to fall. I keep peeping out the curtains to lamp post watch
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Well I'm very happy and can now have a good sleep after seeing the 18z. Things at last look like they may actually going our way..
I must admit though that I will still be nervous in the morning when I log back in here also I find the post in here after 4am are very confusing to armatures as some say upgrades and others say its all over.. All kinds of strange post first thing.
Still looking at the 18Z I think a good chance of the white stuff from Sunday night till at least Tuesday .. I look forward to more post from Steve M, The Eye in the sky and Ian F as I find them easy to understand and well explained.
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Well I'm still hoping things will turn out fine. Short term still looks good to me though not sure about next week as things stand at the moment though.
Why is it that we finally get all 3 models on board and they all agree with each other and then suddenly 1 of them decided to change lol..
Still a happy bunny though
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Thanks Ian F, that's the news I was hoping to hear.. Treat this weekend as a bonus then
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Calling Nick Sussex,
Newby here but even I can see all the potential building up on the models this morning, this really is a great forum and so addictive that I have to keep coming back on here to have a read..
Anyway back to my question and I know that nick seems to be the expert on this subject but is it possible we could get (dare I say it) a short wave develope like before and spoil everything or do you think we are in a much more stronger position this time round? Thanks.
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Keep up the good work everyone on here especially , Glacia point, Eye in the sky, Steve Merr, Ian Ferguson , Nick Sussex , John Holmes and everyone El's .. You all give this forum/ thread a great place to be in.
Sorry if my post is not model related, I will now go back into to background and carry on reading this thread.
What I would say to start with SX, is that there is no clear synoptic development going forward from day 5/6. It is not a question at the moment of shortwave spoliers because we don't know if or where the High pressure will develop.
What we do see this morning is the jet being pulled back West as High pressure tries to build in the vicinity of the UK. As more runs come out we want to see the jet energy going South under emerging High pressure. However to get the cold uppers we need a high latitude block, which is shown as possible on some of the GFS and presumably ECM ensemble members, these will always be more difficult to achieve and model, and any shortwave development could be picked up nearer the time.
I'm not the expert on shortwaves but probably suffer from an obsessive disorder with them ! lol
I think this easterly then transitioning into a ne/n has a much better chance because of the background strat warming, in a sense the momentum is with you because of the reversal of zonal winds above 60N.
Many of the easterly implosions we've seen in the past have not been modelled with a background SSW, so although there are no certainties with the weather there is certainly a good chance.
I think initially its whether we can see enough energy digging se under the building ridge to help pull the coldest air west to you guys in the UK.
So an easterly type outcome I'd put at 80%, the matter of deep cold uppers and any convective snow potential is still much more uncertain.
After that the pattern may retrogress so we'll just have to sit tight and hope for the best.
Thankyou both so much for taking the time to get back to my Question.
:) Keep up the good work. -
Calling Nick Sussex,
Newby here but even I can see all the potential building up on the models this morning, this really is a great forum and so addictive that I have to keep coming back on here to have a read..
Anyway back to my question and I know that nick seems to be the expert on this subject but is it possible we could get (dare I say it) a short wave develope like before and spoil everything or do you think we are in a much more stronger position this time round? Thanks.
PS-
Keep up the good work everyone on here especially , Glacia point, Eye in the sky, Steve Merr, Ian Ferguson , Nick Sussex , John Holmes and everyone El's .. You all give this forum/ thread a great place to be in.
Sorry if my post is not model related, I will now go back into to background and carry on reading this thread.
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can someone tell me why has it gone so mental in here today
I think it must be something to do with the weather.. Lol
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London & South East Regional Discussion
in Regional
Posted
Country file forecast incase anybody missed it.
Found it at last