[Ex Ts Katia To Hit The Uk - Chat Thread 2]

Tell the Met Office that then.

They have got Durham, for example, down as 50mph max gusts, so they seem to be following the models.

[Ex Ts Katia To Hit The Uk - Chat Thread 2]

Eh, well, our local weather just predicted gales of up to 70 mph in West Yorkshire, one of the most populated areas of Britain. Don't think that's over hyping, but a possibility. To say 'No, that will not happen at all', is just a tad ignorant IMO. Of course I am not really expecting 70 mph winds here.

Nothing particularly unusual about gusts of up to 70mph (which means most places won't see higher than 50-60mph). It's a bit earlier than usual, but at risk of being overplayed, I think.

[Ex Ts Katia To Hit The UK - Chat Thread]

think i might get a tad stronger than that up here Ian.busy day ahead tomorrow securing everything down just to be on the safe side.we have no protection whatsoever from westerlies once they whistle over the pennines.

Hoping we don't get too badly hit in Durham City... I don't think we're nearly as exposed you guys up there.

I'm due to travel to Cardiff by train on MOnday pm, so hoping there won'tn be too many trees down on the line.

[Model Output Discussion]

Well got to admit, Completey the best and exciting output in weeks, This really has got all the trimmings we crave for on here, What a launch pad for summer 2011. I truly rekon model output going to be really interesting by the week-end. I know I can hear some already IT WONT LAST, Well as far as im concerned im going to enjoy it, and i believe summer 2011 starts its come back from next week. Cant wait for the weekends output.

SL

It's an exciting time, that's for sure, though the signs are not great for those of us in the northern half of the UK.

By the way, am I missing some witty play on words in your signature quotation? I don't get the "patients" bit... is it some hospital joke?

[Model Output Discussion]

The difference with showers is that they are hit and miss and it rarely rains for a significant proportion of the time.

For example, there is a big difference between a day with, say, two 30 minute downpours with hazy sunshine at most other times of the day, and a day with continuous rain, surely?

What's your take on how far north those showers will get TWS? GFS has held them off from the NE on almost every run. Any thoughts as to whetehr that line could go further north? More generally., what is it about that line being modelled at the moment as having showers that makes it "prone" whereas the NE/Wash are not?

[Model Output Discussion]

This one..?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs783.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs813.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs843.gif

A few light showers in the afternoon for NW and maybe E of the PEnnines. Certainly not rain most of the day as you said.

[Model Output Discussion]

SP isn't talking about the models he's talking about the ensembles - http://www.netweathe...ensviewer;sess=

I see nothing but consistency there for the weekend, which was the period SP was addressing.

[Model Output Discussion]

The runs make me wonder because following the 1-2 days of warmth we have, things return to below average for the forseeable future (see ensembles), and I cannot recall a time when below average weather gave way to an intense warm few days then back to below average, it's quite strange. So in my opinion the warm spell for the weekend will either be significantly downgraded (which is a very very real possibility, looking at other model outputs), or the post weekend outlook will become much better (which I think is the less likely option looking at the Atlantic Oscillations.

UKMO, ECM, and GFS all seem to be forecasting a warm/very warm Sunday away from the NW... which models are suggesting a significant downgrade of this?

[Last Nights ? Yesterdays Forecasting Failure]

The lack of on-the-ground reports is woeful, though. On Xmas day Dan C was still blithering on about "temperatures struggling to reach freezing" across northern England, when it was a good 2 or 3 degrees above in NE England and beyond, despite the "0" on his weather map for Newcastle. In fact, here they have consistently over-egged the cold in this spell, frequently forecasting 2 or 3°C lower than was actually reached (day and night). I do wonder sometimes whether they might not learn the lesson and actually look at CURRENT OBSERVATIONS in the run-up to their forecasts. Last night was a case in point. They were forecasting heavy snow and -1°C here, even when the temperature was at 1°C and rising, and clearly not going to plummet. Sorry, but it was a very poor show, and mainly because they seem to have forgotten how to look out of the window, so to speak.