[Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat]

02:20Z ob from Luton Airport reporting rain and snow with a T/D of 0C - that is in the developing arm I mentioned a short while ago.

[Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat]

You sure it isn't heading ENE...? 

 

I just repeated what was on the Met Office guidance sheet 

 

Radar loop John: http://www.raintoday.co.uk - still developing that wrap around

[Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat]

Do you think it will get this far south or head through Suffolk to the North Sea?

 

Radar loop looks favourable in direction but will it sustain intensity or just fizzle out, tough call.

[Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat]

Appears to be a heavier arm of precip forming North of Cambridge to Kings Lynn heading South and East.

[Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat]

Finally temperatures are starting to drop here from a high of 8C. Eyes on the radar for any precip towards morning.

 

The way the low is deepening, could be some nasty winds by morning. Can see 70mph+ in Dover for example.

[Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat]

Do you think we might get some snow then?

 

Unless as some have mentioned we get wrap-around effect as the low exits the SE corner.

 

Certainty a now-casting night rather then depending on models. Still hopeful of showers tomorrow with supportive 2m and dp's around. Coastal areas may struggle but head inland or gain any altitude and you never know!

[Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas]

Well,there does seem to be some decent support from the ensemble means for a developing Arctic high in the medium term,hence the posting of operational charts with a similar theme.

 

gfs p..gfsnh-12-192.png gefs..gensnh-21-5-192.png

 

Absolutely, just meant the ups and downs of 4 GFS runs a day! Life would be less stressful with just an 00Z and 12Z from all of the models.

[Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat]

Where is that link Essex Weather, please?

Not sure if it works publicly, but try here

 

Temperatures still on the rise here in Chelmsford, up to 7.6C now. Looks like the last of the rain for a while.

[Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat]

Current temperatures.

 

Colder air making faster progress South and East now:

 

[Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas]

Having taken a few days off from model watching, it comes to no surprise where we are going forward in the medium range. As mentioned before Christmas, two thirds of MOGREPS members sunk the high into Europe and this was backed up by a fairly strong signal on the Met Office LRF text.

 

Whilst thoroughly disappointing for those who want *real* cold/snow, we can be at least grateful for some seasonal weather next week - many inland parts, on particular Tuesday, will see temperatures rise barely above freezing.

 

Going forward, once again there are signals (albeit weak) of colder conditions becoming established, it's going to be a waiting game and keep an eye on ensemble trends rather than the operational/control/parallel charts posted

 

Happy that some got to see significant snowfall tonight, long overdue!

[Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat]

18Z EURO4 now in... looking good for parts of Norfolk after midnight with several cm.

 

Elsewhere, Herts, Essex etc some wet snow on the back edge of the system. Maybe a dusting still on the Chilterns and areas above 150m.

 

Strong signal for showers to develop in bands tomorrow (Norfolk, Suffolk into Essex) but looking a mix of rain, sleet and snow. DPs rather high, not helped by the NE feed from a warm(ish) North Sea.

 

Heavier stuff off the Kent Coast at times, mostly rain.

[Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat]

An ENE trajectory?

 

As it passed over the Welsh mountains the course changed but is now starting to head ESE again. New EURO4 due in at 21:15, hopefully some clarity on the rest of the night.

[Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat]

Indeed.

 

We had a conference call around 8PM with local authorities and the risk is now minimal. Here is our public update: https://www.facebook.com/EssexWeather/posts/579828625482921

 

All warnings are set to be removed for North London, Kent and Essex shortly.

[Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14]

Very happy with the output across the models tonight. As mentioned last week with the MOGREPS update, significant drops in 850 temps showing around 3rd December. While we are not talking about any snow for the majority, we are taking about below average temperatures. As per Met Office update this morning :-)

 

Last week both Ian F and the Met Office laughed off my analysis with what the models where hinting, but I look at the larger picture (synoptically) and not Daily-Express style freezes

 

Think we can all enter December with the a better prospect than this stage last year

[Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14]

That 'company' are to be taken with a pinch of salt, as they've been in trouble in the past.

 

As a director of 'that company' I would be interested in some actual evidence that we have been 'in trouble' of some kind as I have no knowledge of this - perhaps you could message me of this, thank you :-)

 

Back on topic, the snippet that was posted here from our twitter account stated we *may* end up with cold digging in. There was no mention of anything unusually cold or severe. Yesterdays run only took us to the 3rd of December. What happens beyond that point is of interest as there are hints of a strong North-Westerly or North-Easterly starting to develop which would bring in air cold enough for wintry showers across the Northern half of the UK.

 

I know last winter was a bitter pill to swallow for many, but we are in a hell of a better position then we were at this point last November and it's starting to become clear that a pattern change will play out in early December.

 

I think this sums up things pretty well:

 

[Early winter hopes and chat]

My winter forecast for 2014/15, last year I got shot down here but at least I mention snow this time around 

 

Although written for Essex, generally the same theme for anywhere in Southern England and Wales.

 

http://essexweather.weebly.com/blog/will-it-snow-this-winter

[South East England, East Anglia & Central Southern England Regional Weather Chat]

Shocking GFS for tomorrow night... massive swing Eastwards

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs336.gif

[South East England, East Anglia & Central Southern England Regional Weather Chat]

Latest high-res UKMO (12Z) run now coming in, heaviest precip and thundery activity modelled to be West of London. Sporadic lightning over Essex/Kent.

 

2km for 02:00 BST FRIDAY morning not Saturday (do not share elsewhere without permission)

 

[South East England, East Anglia & Central Southern England Regional Weather Chat]

No comments on the latest Met Office forecast for SE/EA tonight?

 

"A band of thundery showers will move across most areas around midnight"

[Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.]

London/Essex ECM ensembles here: http://www.essexweather.com/outlook.html

 

Not too different, but about 1 or 2 degrees difference this side of North Sea.

 

There were 4 members (out of 50) that had snowcover, greater than 1CM in London at the next of next week.

 

Also worth pointing out, there were a couple of sub-zero (ice day) members too :-)

[Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.]

Good evening :-)

 

With the recent upgrade in resolution to the ECM, I have finally managed to add the ensembles to reflect the new format:

 

http://www.essexweather.com/outlook.html

 

And as a few asked, I've added a GFS version too. Thinking of adding 850 hPa and snow depth ensembles too, but maybe too cluttered unless I make the other charts smaller?

 

Anyway, fingers crossed for December!

[Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >]

12Z ensembles from Euro now up: http://www.essexweather.com/outlook.html

 

Would still urge on the side of caution for those wanting snow South of the Wash... 850s remain marginal, especially along coastal areas.

 

Only 7/50 ECM members have snowfall accumulation for the Home Counties as an example (and that occurs between 00Z and 06Z midweek)

 

Still trending the right way with each run though

[Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013]

thats looks significantly less chilly around the 20th than the london ones have been recently.  however, until i see it in the more familiar weathercast format, i'll hold judgement.

 

naefs 12z continues with the general trend though hard to pick out the detail - yesterdays nuance was low west euro anomoly in week 2. todays is the trough getting to our east. both are cold solutions for the uk

 

Here is the 12Z GFS for comparison: http://i.imgur.com/JquwBl5.gif (same lat/lon)

 

I've had a quick look through MOGREPS (Met Office ensembles) and it is nearer to the ECM than GFS at the latter stages.

 

Met Office CF would most likely go with 'slightly below average' temperatures from 15th Nov - 24th Nov on tomorrows update if the 00Z remains broadly the same. Colder signal is gaining support now with around 20-25% of ECM members

[Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013]

ECM ensemble can be found here - http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html - still showing 00z update at 21:29

 

12Z ECM ensemble is available here: http://www.essexweather.com/outlook.html

 

This updates every evening at 9PM, at least two hours before any other web site

[Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013]

Todays 12Z ECM ensembles starting to show the trend downwards in temperature towards the end of next week:

 

http://www.essexweather.com/outlook.html

 

There were around 15% of members going for below average temps from 17th November onwards