dixonoid

Looks like the high pressure is starting to ridge north earlier on this run.

GFS definitley looking better in the higher resolution but not as good as the 18z and gives us this : And in deepest FI still looking good for signs of changes to very cold: And the ecm : So there is going to be a few ups and downs, but the pattern change does look like it is imminent, and although these are only taken from one set of runs and can't be taken as granted, very pleasing to see! And ensembles taking a slow direction towards cold and not as mixed up in the low resolution as they have been, telling me that the pattern is going to change to a less mobile one:

Stella runs !! Hope the current modelling goes in the right direction, been a lot of flip flopping recently, but now things are into the reliable time frame, if it can be called this, so here is to the pub run (18z)! And hopefully a nice easterly to end January!

Maybe anyone with power in the government, recent stories in the media, expenses and such things, no reason for the government to do something like this? Sorry but i've got no faith in the establishment!

Predicting barbecue summers, when they know it isn't going to happen (so people prepare for the summer, buying summer things rather than raincoats), in early spring to make people positive and spend more money! http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8026668.stm

Im thinking that because some of the pv moves over Scandinavia, it will be hard to displace that easily, and the gap inbetween the split pv, a strengthening high pressure will develop, maybe! Still learning, so please correct if I am totally wrong!

I'd say it is showing in the output. if your just looking at the operational than it looks a bit mild near the end, but you have the Control and 19 perturbations to look at: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;type=panel;

If as the models are showing, a pattern change happens mid month, which of the models would deal with a blocked pattern best. Because last year the gfs kept on showing potent lows crossing us which went south on consecutive runs, due to the jetstream. So what point in the models will the blocking start, because the ensembles are still up and down and what model deals with this best, if any?? I am thinking about this point here, then the models will start to struggle? Happy new year to you all!! Edit: when I say last year, I meant 2010,lol.

looking at the ensembles at the moment, everything is reasonably settled with agreement from the models until about the 5/6th of January which is when Fi begins imo, so after this point is when the operational goes mild, and as good a guess as any of the spaghetti!

Looking at the Ao and Nao at the moment, they do look like they are heading neutral to negative, but this also showed during November and December, and they both ended up positive, the only difference I can see now is that they are heading into the negative with possible strat warming, which is a more positive sign than November and December. So my conclusion is that we maybe heading into the negative at the moment by the graphs, but will they stay like that?

I do agree . But when I look at the operational run on here to see where that is heading weather wise, I also look at the ensembles to see what the other solutions maybe, although I know you can see all the other perturbations, I find it quicker to have a quick look to see what is going on with the other solutions by looking at the ensembles. And looking at the control run maps (for the 6z), my conclusion of northerly than easterly is not to far off. Not saying any prolonged northerly or easterly is on the cards, but it is shown in some runs on the models.

I am just presuming that if we have -5 850 hpa temps above us, the weather coming maybe from a northerly or north westerly and when it gets colder nearer the end I presume that when we get -10 850 hpa temps the weather is coming from a more easterly direction. Just looking at the temps on the graph and guessing where the weather is coming from. Obviously the ensembles and looking at the model combination works better. Some people talking about outliers, but with the zonal pattern the ensembles are all over the place, because the unsettled weather.

I would say looking at the ensembles from the 6z, the operational shows us zonal weather, ie hot and cold, weather moving from west to east, normal weather. where as the Control shows a halt to the atlantic from about the 6th of January with only a small warmer interlude later, this is just going by the ensemble graph. So a northerly from the 6th with easterly starting on the 14/15th going by the control.

I think I should of written, is this the start of the blocking we have been searching for. And also looking at the northern hemisphere maps, there is a high in the arctic (AO I presume) which could possibly join the one as pictured, and with signs of warming in the strat, would tell me that the model, but not all the models are heading in the right direction, but still in Fi . Most of the information I have is information from this thread and the strat thread, also the latest gfs run in Fi is echoing GPs thoughts from his winter forecast I think, but the high needs to be further north, but still all in Fi. Good signs though Please correct me, because I am probably wrong!

Is this the blocking us coldies have been searching for?

Cookies are bad for you!!

How about a Cold model thread and a Mild model thread, then hopefully like for like people will be discussing what they like and not argue.