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Everything posted by mother nature rocks
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
mother nature rocks replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So the models are pretty much aligned with dry dry dry. Plenty of useable weather and much better than it P-ing down all the time. Just one more cold snap/ spell would be immense but not gonna happen within next 10 days!! So on that does this high remain cloudy as really want to spot the Green Comet come next week!! Should be a Right spectacle but nothing beats Hale-Bopp in the 90’s!! MNR -
Been working in Honeybourne and Wickhamford today and Fairfield Evesham yesterday. Almost like I drove my van thru a wardrobe and came out in Narnia. Absolutely plastered with the white stuff and beautiful to see Going to be a bone chiller tonight Quietly ‘hoping’ this cold will be back with a vengeance just before Xmas - certainly has a chance looking at output this evening!! How’s the potential snow early Sunday morning looking?? MNR
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Really starting to think this may only be a mild blip - maybe a blink and you miss it scenario!! Great charts this evening and hopeful the ECM12z is much better than this mornings output!! Still another week atleast of bitter weather - ok not much snow as yet but better than mild and your house getting flooded Gonna drop this in here quickly - sorry mods COME ON ENGLAND MNR
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Well well well - pretty amazing turnaround from the ECM 0z. I think the ECM was invited out by the pub runner GFS 18z yesterday and hit the top shelf hard - so hard in fact it made the GFS 18z look totally sober!!! Now I know the GFS goes out 16 days rather than the ECMs’ 10 but did it not handle the scorcher spell this summer better than the euro?? Anyway, great way to start the weekend!! Have a great one all - I’m off to work MNR
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
mother nature rocks replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So looking at that chart - if a storm was to form off Cape Verde or anywhere else in Atlantic basin and manages to become a named storm/ hurricane and roll up the ESB and the Jet stream fired up and pushed it towards us- With those SST’s would it be able to maintain its strength?? Looks a very warm ocean run towards the UK. How quiet is this Hurricane season by the way?? I can’t remember the last time the Atlantic was so inactive. Maybe more from September thru till November but does seem eerily quiet currently MNR -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
mother nature rocks replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just been checking the jet stream predictions from the GFS 12z and yes it’s slightly stronger over us currently until about Tuesday of next week. It then just pushes north with expected high pressure building in then seems to die off as it leaves the ESB. Pretty much the same all summer long!! What’s killing it?? I know in autumn/ winter it thrives on warm/cold air confliction and the polar vortex to aid it. Is it just that I’ve answered my own question or is there something else happening?? Might be a daft question but I’m asking anyway TIA MNR -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
mother nature rocks replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I spy with my little eye a potential heat pump due west of Portugal It can’t happen again surely???? Waiting for Jon Snow response MNR -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
mother nature rocks replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS 0z very much Azores high reloads with a definite sign of a north south divide. Apart from early next weeks hit or miss showers any other rain seems to fizzle out before pushing further SE!! Looks like this drought issue is going to take its time to sort itself out!! Let’s hope it does in the autumn and winter but till then let’s enjoy this top draw British summer MNR -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
mother nature rocks replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
On the plus side it looks as if it’s going to cool down to 23-25*c after this scorch event. We used to look forward to it warming up to that temperature but now quite the opposite Hopefully the school holidays get a look in this year Stay safe all MNR