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chiller

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Everything posted by chiller

  1. chiller
    ECM is probably on the money - has been thus far so my gut feeling is don't get too excited about cold prospect as next week will probably be a 2 dayer cold blip at best before the Atlantic charges back through. Hope I'm wrong, really do but hey the express has gone for the next ice age which usually = mild mush a certainty! Lets hope the strat warming is bashing the nuts out of the ECM algorithms and the colder outputs are on the money . As always MORE RUNS NEEDED!
  2. chiller
    Not a great deal to get excited about this morning for colder prospects. Odd colder incursion post boxing day and GFS gives some possible colder upper air later in the runs. But on the whole ECM and GFS not great with the Atlantic conveyor of lows punching across time and time again. UKMO seems a bit more positive from what I can see with some colder PM air perhaps in the offing. Lets hope late Dec starts showing better prospects. Very volatile and difficult to model me thinks Hard to believe today is the shortest of the year!
  3. chiller
    Maybe we should start worrying if anything seriously cold pops up around that date - Doomsday by new iceage! Well we've had the flood so I guess its now fire or ice
  4. chiller
    Is it just me or does GFS and yesterdays ECM look like groundhog day most of the way through with SW'ly punching through. Not looking too good currently for colder prospects but time will tell. At least we have seen some very decent frosts this season so far. This time last year certainly in kent we had hardly seen any frost. To be fair we are only 2 weeks in to winter and it's still all to play for. My monies now looking post Christmas on the run to new year for colder prospects.
  5. chiller
    I'd be surprised if we didn't see any form of cold until mid jan. The fact the charts are so volatile and the met were calling a beast from the east last week and now the current dross shows the complexity of the current synoptics in my opinion. However you may well be right and perhaps Brian Gaze is on to something with his bookend thoughts of cold/mild/cold. Time will only tell.
  6. chiller
    So after this cold "blip" peaking this Weds/Thurs none of the main 3 show anything of particular note for cold fans If I'm interpreting this right So much promise last week but hey ho its still VERY early in the season and we have at least seen some of the white stuff already! I'm sure it will be all change again in a couple of days.
  7. chiller
    Looks like some real interest from next tuesday on GFS if I'm interpreting this right - is that a NE on the way? Reasonable cold uppers?
  8. chiller
    Hi folks - forgive my ignorance but did 68/69 turn out to be rather harsh for the UK?
  9. chiller
    You would probably catch some snow on Sunday but most of the SE would miss out looking at that. Temps look interesting though. All to play for!
  10. chiller
    Michael Fish video didn't seem that promising for the extended timeframe - guess this was based on this mornings output though. God I hope this block kicks the abcdefg out of the Atlantic!
  11. chiller
    Hi folks, I mean this with the best will in the world but hanging on to each and every run will only lead to unnecessary stress levels. I had a suspicion that there would be wrist slashing come the mornings runs after last nights promising output. Things will change without doubt and I feel around the 20th of Jan we should see a start of something colder. No doubt later today we will see some stunning runs or maybe we will have to wait till tomorrow but things as we know will change. I have been finding its best keep an eye over 1 output every 24 hrs. But hey I'm just as desperate for a decent cold shot as the rest! Fingers crossed the ECM delivers!
  12. chiller
    Well here goes my moan about the winter thus far! I had hoped that the last 3 winters, well 2008 > 2010 had broken the horrendous cycle that we had to endure between 1991 and 2007 (16 years of pain, at least in the SE!) Having glanced in the Model Output thread earlier today I was most upset as it seems we will have to put up with mild mush (or zonal) until mid Jan at least which then really only leaves 4 weeks potential (in the SE at least). I must have jinxed us cold fans back in early November when I thought "what the heck" and bought a snow shovel and a car that looks remotely like a 4x4 - just in case! What I am most surprised about is just the lack of any frosts in my location. Last Christmas I was walking in snow and looking at ice packs off the Kent coast - this year...... well there you have it, rant over. Roll on a mid Jan beasterly pleeeez lol !!!
  13. chiller
    Hi Folks, Very interesting thread here as always. I can’t pretend to understand the finer details but it has certainly made me think how the stratosphere affects our weather particularly in the winter months. It made me consider and wonder what the stratosphere was doing during some of the memorable winters past. I located a report detailing a very sudden and explosive SSW in January 1963 and I was surprised the SSW was in mid Jan as I believe this winter began to bite hard from Boxing day which would suggest synoptics had fallen in to place to deliver brutal cold without the SSW being present at the time it began. I don’t have enough experience to comment on this alignment but I find it interesting as it is now possible that we may get a SSW in Jan if things progress favourably. The article is quite interesting (fairly intense) but if anyone is interested here's the link: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0469(1965)022%3C0597%3AASOAED%3E2.0.CO%3B2
  14. chiller
    Thanks Chionomaniac for your thoughts regarding my question - very interesting. Fingers crossed for some displacement of that cold air in our direction.
  15. chiller
    Good morning all - don't often post but always enjoy reading the informed opinions here and of course the banter! Just thought I'd mention that a Houston based forcaster seems to think a SSW may be on the way in Arctic Canada and a pattern change on the way. I'm not sure what the consequences this would have for the UK - would this displace the PV and potentially send cold air our way? Here's the link for those interested: http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-houston/houston-tx-and-vicinity-weather-forecast-monday-october-24-2011-1 Apologies if this has already been picked up.
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