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Everything posted by Adi F
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Convective / Storm Discussion - 27th July 2013
Adi F replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Sadly people writing it off on here is more predictable than the storms. The day has not even started yet. I was thinking I would head for Beachyhead earlier this morning but I am waiting to see now, it is shaping up nicely. -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 23rd July 2013 onwards
Adi F replied to Jane Louise's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Mark you know what I think of you right now! Hope you got some good pictures. -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 23rd July 2013 onwards
Adi F replied to Jane Louise's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
If my memory serves me correctly each model run is not an update of the run before but an update of the same run 24 hours before. I believe each run uses different parameters and data hence why each run can look so different from the one before. I.E. the 06z run is and update of the 06z run before it. The 12z run will have different data added to it and will update the 12z run before and so on. I think I recall john Holmes explaining it to me years ago and he said what data is used on each run. Some runs are better at showing one parameter than another such as precipitation. I also seem to remember a sticky post listing the advantages and disadvantages of each run? As I say i am trying to go on a failing memory so maybe John or someone else can correct me if I am wrong. -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 23rd July 2013 onwards
Adi F replied to Jane Louise's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
My favorite Location for me is Larkhill Skew-T, But they only send a balloon up when the range is active or there is a weather course on. The best thing is they send the balloon up at times that is convenient to them for the activity on the range, which normally means early mornings and sometimes early afternoons. Today for instance they sent a balloon up at 0600 and 0900.I did my weather course at Larkhill so know their process. I find it upsetting that soundings are made less and less these days, models are not the answer the atmosphere needs to be sampled. -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 23rd July 2013 onwards
Adi F replied to Jane Louise's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I didn't think Herstmonceux had done a 12z for years now. -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 23rd July 2013 onwards
Adi F replied to Jane Louise's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Hmmm no I wish i kept my mouth shut now, But lets be honest, those are only model Skew-t's so as about much use as a weather rock. -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 23rd July 2013 onwards
Adi F replied to Jane Louise's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Flying ants may be hatching but I have not seen any thrips (thunder bugs) this year! -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 23rd July 2013 onwards
Adi F replied to Jane Louise's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Coast I think you have gone too early, 2100 and 0000 would be closer to the mark. Although the 1800s do show a nice thick layer of upper level cloud. -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 23rd July 2013 onwards
Adi F replied to Jane Louise's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Well I have given up speculating a long time ago. I will be chasing tomorrow but will wait to see what pans out. Lets hope it is a good one! -
Tilly and Harry great images, well done. The lightning on Monday whilst I was up in Warwickshire was single pulse lightning so although the camera was shooting I had too much shutter lag. I wish it was pulse lightning then I should have got some good shoot.
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Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 23rd July 2013 onwards
Adi F replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Cheers Harry. I left Oxford way too early yesterday. Hopefully some more stuff will come up from France. -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 23rd July 2013 onwards
Adi F replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Set up down Dungeness. A storm to my west but don't think much is coming out of it -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 22nd July 2013 onwards
Adi F replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Some cells starting to pop up to the west of me -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 22nd July 2013 onwards
Adi F replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
The question is how strong is the cap. I don't have access to skew-t here. Not real skew-t -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 22nd July 2013 onwards
Adi F replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
And I have left that behind. Grrr it best kick off up here soon. -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 22nd July 2013 onwards
Adi F replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Ah thanks wishful. -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 22nd July 2013 onwards
Adi F replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I am not complaining Harry. I just want to know if anything has started to happen north of Oxford yet? -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 22nd July 2013 onwards
Adi F replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Richmond London? I have just come up from Chichester! -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 22nd July 2013 onwards
Adi F replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Can some one please tell me what's happening at the moment please. I am currently just north of Oxford and heading to bambury. -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st July 2013 onwards
Adi F replied to Jane Louise's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
It does look good at the moment, still a long way off yet though. Lets see what it looks like in the morning. maybe its a red carpet! -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st July 2013 onwards
Adi F replied to Jane Louise's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Glad you got down there. Storm1080 and I turned around and headed back when we got to Ringwood, I think we left it too late. -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st July 2013 onwards
Adi F replied to Jane Louise's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I will be chasing. I originally planned to head for Bristol and see what was happening but I think I will head straight to Banbury and see what happens. I will look again in the morning but thats the plan for now. I have got the hammock in the car so I can kip practically anywhere if need be. -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st July 2013 onwards
Adi F replied to Jane Louise's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Is anyone chasing over the next couple of days?