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Coastal Eddy

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Posts posted by Coastal Eddy

    Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Dancerwithwings said:

    Isn’t it amazing how things have certainly progressed over the last twenty years or so regarding the forecasts and how much is only now understood but on offer to the public…..blimey I can still remember no internet and all we had was the 5 day farming forecast on Sunday….it just gives me a nudge and a reminder on how truly things have moved on .….Brilliant is my thoughts 👌

    I concur Dancer, I remember waiting enthusiastically as a teenager in the late 70's for "Weather For Farmers" late forecast on BBC2 - Now we can watch these excellent and very educational Met Office 10 day outlooks on demand.

     

    • Like 7

    Tropical storm Kay - Rare Location

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    Only once has a tropical storm made landfall in southern California back in 1939

    This is a great read

     

    california_coast.jpg?ve=1&tl=1

    android-chrome-192x192.png Why don’t tropical storms or hurricanes ever hit California?

    WWW.FOXWEATHER.COM
    While the Golden State can occasionally get hit by moisture-laden remnants of a tropical storm or hurricane in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, getting a direct strike from an actual storm is exceedingly rare there – records...

     

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    42 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

    Thanks, before our heat dome event here, the all-time BC record was measured at 112 F in 1941 (44.4 C) and after the event the new record was 49.5 C (at the same location, Lytton BC). The Canadian record had been 113 F (45 C) from locations in Saskatchewan in July 1937. The heat dome did not extend into the prairies so they didn't get a chance to break their records. 

    Point being, these extreme weather events can blow away records. In Washington state it was a bit less extreme for the margins but I think the state record went from 115 F to 118 F. 

    Even where I live, which is nowhere near being dryland and well up into the hills at 1050 m, we had 44 C and the all-time record had been 39 C in that 1941 event. 

    Do you remember what the models were suggesting 7 days prior to the Lytton 49.5C ?

     

    COVID-19 Pandemic

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    It is realy difficult to have faith in UK government advice when only 5 days ago they recommended that people over 70 should avoid cruises !

    Now they have U-turned and gone from 'Herd Immunity' to lockdown

    Valuable days were wasted by there indecision

    Most people knew Cheltenham should have been cancelled

    In the previous briefing they used the excuse of the WHO decalaration of pandemic to change course

    Valuable days were wasted and many of us will pay with our lives

     

    • Like 1

    COVID-19 Pandemic

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    Surely the Diamond Princess is the best indicator of mortality rate

    All on board were tested

    697 positive

    7 deaths

    Critical has dropped from 30 to 15

    Average age 58

    33% were 70 or older

    This not to bad considering the age group - however they all obvioulsy have had the best available care

    But has virus mutated since ?

     

    DiamondPrincess022020.jpg?ve=1&tl=1

    6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn Cruise ship data helps reveal coronavirus death rate: researchers

    WWW.FOXNEWS.COM
    Reliable data on the new coronavirus's death rate has been scarce, with early numbers coming from China. But results from the cruise ship Diamond Princess...

     

    COVID-19 Pandemic

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    I do not like this governments policy of 'Herd Immunity'

    It appears they are wiiling to sacrifice the old and the weak for economic reasons

    Take procative measures when you are ahead of the curve, don't allow mass gatherings and close schools

    China has proven that containment is possible with extreme measures - Why can't we do the same ?

    Looks like the premier league is finished now anyway - Maybe they are waiting for the herds to make decisions for them

     

    • Like 8

    Novel Coronavirus – China

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    Surely we can use the Diamond Princess cruise ship as a good case study to examine fatality rates because we have an accurate number for infected persons

    691 confirmed infected as of Feb 25th

    6 Deaths as of today

    Also it appears the vast majority of infected are aged 60 and over

    Does anybody know how many of infected have recovered or are in critcal condition ?

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    • Like 3
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