[Cold hunt - models and chat]

5 hours ago, tight isobar said:

That's directly over the WHITE-house

No wonder there's a government shutdown !

 

[Hurricane Leslie]

Goodbye Leslie, we will miss you !

If she hadn't gone Extratropical on September 25th for a couple of days this would be discussion number 78


000
WTNT43 KNHC 132036
TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie Discussion Number  70
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
500 PM AST Sat Oct 13 2018

After a total of 70 advisories, long-lived Leslie has become
post-tropical just west of the coast of Portugal, finally succumbing
to the combination of cool waters, strong vertical wind shear, and
interaction with an approaching cold front. The air mass ahead of
the cyclone has moistened up in the low levels with Faro, Portugal,
reporting a dewpoint of 70F/21C, but the dewpoints across central
and northern Portugal ahead of Leslie are only in the low-60F range,
which is not indicative of a tropical air mass. Thus, the cyclone is
now a powerful post-tropical low pressure system that even has a
partial eye noted in the most recent 2000Z Portuguese composite
radar imagery. After landfall, rapid weakening is anticipated, and
Leslie is forecast to degenerate into a broad low pressure area over
or just north of Spain by late Sunday.

Leslie is moving quickly toward the northeast or 050/30 kt.
Post-tropical Cyclone Leslie should continue in a fast northeastward
direction for the next 12-18 hours, making landfall near or just
south of Porto, Portugal by 14/0000Z. This forecast motion is
consistent with the previous advisory and the latest track model
guidance.

The meteorological services of Portugal and Spain are handling
hazards information for their respective countries via local weather
products. This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory
on this system.


Key Messages:

1. Leslie is expected to bring near hurricane-force winds to
portions of Portugal later tonight as a powerful post-tropical
cyclone.  Gale-force winds are also likely to affect portions of
northwestern and northern Spain tonight and Sunday.

2. Leslie is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (1
to 3 inches) with isolated amounts as high as 125 mm (5 inches)
across portions of Portugal and Spain, which could cause flash
flooding.

3. For more information on Leslie, interests in Portugal should
refer to products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and
Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt.  Interests in Spain should refer to
products from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 40.5N   9.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  14/0600Z 43.0N   4.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL INLAND
 24H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Hurricane Leslie]

NHC discussion number 53 final sentence

I can't rule out that
Leslie could remain a tropical cyclone almost indefinitely if it
continues meandering over the northern Atlantic.

Forecaster Zelenski is going to need a holiday by the time Leslie is done !

 

 

[Hurricane Leslie]

Latest NHC 5 day cone

 

 

[Hurricane Leslie]

I have also been monitoring this unusual system.

On Tuesday it transitioned from Subtropical to Extratropical and was no longer covered by the National Hurricane Center.

Then on Friday after it drifted south it transitioned back to Subtropical and was again covered by the national hurricane centre with the same name.

Now it is Tropical and likely to become a hurricane for a while.

Has anybody seen this happen before ?

 

 

[Model output discussion - the beast arrives]

1 hour ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

It looks like the low is being pulled from the southern jet heading into Spain and the easterly weaker jet to the north of it. 

I think it will be weaker than projected and further south come the time but it’s a headache that’s for sure.

I rarely post here but enjoy the reading

I only look at fax charts and find this one fascinating

Where does the low go from here and what happened to the Scandi heights ?

Expert opinion much appreciated

 

 

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

11 minutes ago, ScottishSnowStorm said:

Literally looks like it wants to swallow up the whole UK 

It certainly resembles a beast

 

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

36 minutes ago, SN0W SN0W SN0W said:

We've had a few cold westerlies the past few weeks, only fair to return the favor. 

Canada, Welcome to the beast from the east !

 

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

This is my first ever post on the forum.

I have enjoyed reading for many years - Some very informative and sometimes emotional posts !

I have only ever looked at FAX charts for the last 40 years

My reading of the upcoming North Westerly/Northerly appears to be just an extension of the Azores High in a more northwesterly position

Just watched outlook on BBC and they showed the Azores high drifting north east and becoming a Scandi high as a possible easterly outcome - Is this possible ?

Is this where our potential easterly arises from or is this just new high pressure building in Scandi ?

I am a little confused by this

Would appreciate any input from the experts

Cheers all