[Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️]

7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Looks like they're trying to land on the North - South runway after failing to land on the East-West.

Crosswind will be near limits.

Didn't land god knows where there going now

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

 

I want cold and snow as much as anyone my young son constantly asking when is it going to snow enough to go on sledge.

But I just can't see us getting opportunity for at least 3 weeks.

I know MJO forecast is just that but it's not trending in a good direction.

A few days back ECM and GFS both had MJO reaching phase 7 at decent amplitude.

Now ECM has it barely reaching for phase 7 and heading for COD and GFS looks even worse diving into the COD from phase 6 and looking like it's going to cycle back to phase 5. 

 

 

 

 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

It’s now unfortunately a dud! All models are wide of the margin perhaps for the extreme south and very short lived !

I am not sure about. The snow currently coming down around Liverpool/Manchester was forecast for Glasgow this suggest the short wave is actually much further south than forecast (150miles) this should result in the low to south west phasing with it early/further west and potentially being dragged slightly further north.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Big 6z coming up regarding tomorrow's snow chances for the south. 

I think we might see a big shift north as the short wave this morning and associated snow that was supposed to be over the central belt of Scotland is actually much further south west giving snow to northern Ireland and north west. 

With it being further south the low coming in from Atlantic should phase with it earlier and therefore potentially be dragged further north.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Last 24hr trend has been too move Wednesday snow north. Looks like any further moves north will bring lead to it becoming too marginal for the south coast, but will bring the midlands into play.

I think at least somewhere will get buried thou whether that is far south or as far up as Birmingham we won't know until 24hours before.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

2 hours ago, Derecho said:

Underwhelming output this morning, that innocuous rise in pressure over Spain yesterday that pushed our cold away has sadly put a big spanner in the works as it has coincided with the Atlantic gathering a bit of momentum.

To rub salt in our wounds the UKMO, EC and GFS all going for a rise in pressure over Spain next weekend which will push more mild air into Europe and our Scandi cold pool which helped this cold spell materialise is now going to get swept away. The high that we thought could push in some cold from the east has failed miserably and is set to fall into western / central Russia.

So now we are back to chasing unicorns in the form of an SSW event and whilst there is definitely good science behind it, I often see that those chasing it neglect the poor conditions in our little part of the world that are compromising our hand. Before long, another month has passed and yet more SSW charts are being posted. Then there is the small matter of getting the polar vortex to split favourably to help us.

It is still early days this winter though and an El Nino tends to bring back loaded winters. However I'd rather see some cold synoptics nearby at a close time range over an SSW signal and considering what could have been, it's a shame that so many good ingredients in the short to medium term are being swept aside so quickly.

I don't why people dispontent with what showing on models this is what we would expect with where the MJO, from the 12th MJo will go into phase 7  then 8 a week after and looks like it might then go back across the COD into phase 7 again. That means at least 

 

2 hours ago, Derecho said:

Underwhelming output this morning, that innocuous rise in pressure over Spain yesterday that pushed our cold away has sadly put a big spanner in the works as it has coincided with the Atlantic gathering a bit of momentum.

To rub salt in our wounds the UKMO, EC and GFS all going for a rise in pressure over Spain next weekend which will push more mild air into Europe and our Scandi cold pool which helped this cold spell materialise is now going to get swept away. The high that we thought could push in some cold from the east has failed miserably and is set to fall into western / central Russia.

So now we are back to chasing unicorns in the form of an SSW event and whilst there is definitely good science behind it, I often see that those chasing it neglect the poor conditions in our little part of the world that are compromising our hand. Before long, another month has passed and yet more SSW charts are being posted. Then there is the small matter of getting the polar vortex to split favourably to help us.

It is still early days this winter though and an El Nino tends to bring back loaded winters. However I'd rather see some cold synoptics nearby at a close time range over an SSW signal and considering what could have been, it's a shame that so many good ingredients in the short to medium term are being swept aside so quickly.

We don't need a SSW the vortex isn't currently that strong. The cold weather we just had was always on borrowed time with where we were in MJO cycle and pressure over southern Europe was always going to rise.

We now have 2 weeks of wet weather before affects of MJO going into phase 7 around the 11th to filter through, looks like MJo then going into 8 and potentially back into 7 via the COD, so potential for a longer cold spell (2weeks) next time but don't expect any severe until at least 22nd.

I would go as far to say if we lucky with the MJO cycling between phase 7/8/1 a couple of times we probably don't want a SSW a weak vortex is better option and stops any Greenland high moving to far west.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Snow to rain then back to snow, that would be quite some day ️️ This could be exceptional next week, defo one to chase again !! 

O no that's not good with the cold winning out at this far out, it's going to miss to the south again lol.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

So gfs keeps it running till 168 hours!!!!thats pretty long if you ask me!!enough time to extend it even further!!

I am starting to think 7th December might be a bit special.

Yes currently just showing heavy rain everywhere but that low that end the spell is being modelled further and further south and getting more enlongated.

At this far out I would say it's pretty much in perfect position with how much everything moves south.

Calling a channel low blizzard now

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Just for fun, how cold would this be minus 12/13 uppers in slack north easterly with snow on the ground.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

4 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

I wouldn't worry overly much about a return to mild conditions showing on the models beyond day 7. I mean just look at this mess - around day 9 and we're already showing nearly a 20C range to the 850hPa temperatures. That's not a milder trend, or a colder trend, it's a nobody-has-a-clue trend!

It'll probably get even more ridiculous as it runs out to the end...

Last sentence definitely true, watching the ensembles roll out think they might need to rescale that above chart in a couple of frames time for ensemble 21 minus 16 uppers might make it.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Just now, Mcconnor8 said:

It looks much much better here, way stronger block and that low will slide under the UK, fantastic.

Icon at 150 The low about coming in is slightly to far north which at this far out is excellent as we know from experience it will more than likely trend further and further south.  

 

 

[Storm Ciarán]

7 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Those 2 ensemble members on the 06z that take it through North Wales instead of England would be awful for the South East I think as they are both very deep lows too.

Yeah those would be carnage, unfortunately not out of question as definitely trended that way.

[Storm Ciarán]

So the 6z GFS moves further north west again. Not looking good for Kent coasts and strong enough further inland now to cause serious travel as likely Dartford and Medway bridges be closed 

[Storm Ciarán]

0z GFS is further north west than 18z by quite a bit, extreme gusts  90mph+ now clipping places such a Brighton.

The rest of the models not as extreme but icon and GEM also bit further north than there 12z runs.

Path still not nailed down yet.

 

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Icon, slightly  north than 18z run

 GFS a lot more so, and looks a  worrying the purple shading touching the coast at 7am between Brighton and Eastbourne depicts gusts of 110 knots/125mph

 

[Storm Ciarán]

1 minute ago, daniel barber said:

Inland gusts of 50 to 60mph shouldn't really warrant an amber. Perhaps given the wet ground maybe. But the models so far don't show anything to crazy Inland. Extreme southern coast amber yes. If these winds are upped then yeah amber will be issued. Need more model clarification 

Won't be any amber warnings if latest Icon is correct big move south.

[Storm Ciarán]

GFS T60 5mb deeper and further north. If gets any deeper or further north it be devastating 

[Storm Ciarán]

12z icon slightly further north and deeper, not looking south coast

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

9 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Going back to the future for a minute, that's a very cold chart next week.

Cheltenham goers will be getting nervous if that comes off.

Now we are talking. This week might just be the starters..

MJO now gaining amplitude in phase 7. Models all over the show as can't get scandie height rises while the vortex displaced there and nothing to drive a Greenland high but potential is there for  wedge to west of Iceland to disrupt the next few lows under into that cold air.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

22 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

UKMO 168 easily the best chart of the morning.as it was yesterday also..lets hope the others follow this now and we start to get some consistency...ECM is ok but could be far better

The Ukmo ain't any good either. It just looks good as don't see further, it will end up with high pressure to our south 

We ain't getting a really cold spell from this SSW. Irony is the reason is because there is no vortex left on Canadian side.

Not going to get a robust high over Greenland or Iceland if it can just wander off to the west and have massive areas of weak high pressure.

That's why split SSWs are better as left with some of the vortex on the American side to drive WAA up to Greenland and the high is cut off.

The righting is on the wall for the current UK high to split with us ending up with high to the south.

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

8 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

Here's a reason/justification for the warnings etc and no Amber - read comments/replies. 

 

Sounds like the met office already trying to make excuses for massive mistake via twitter from the comfort of their warm homes

I get not wanting to put out unnecessary to early but it's obvious on couple of occasions now that they don't have anyone with authority working on Sunday evenings to make a quick decision.

They should of least given amber possibly red warnings this afternoon giving People heads up before venturing out, there vehicles stranded over night on all the major motorways now.

 

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

4 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

Pivot point further South

 

Is someone gonna message him and ask why at 9:54pm he forecasting max of 12cm locally in the prime area when a few places  already well above that.

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

6 minutes ago, Bradley in Kent said:

Radar and precipitation type illustrating what's going on

The radar ain't right for precip type I have been under the green for 3 hours and it definitely snow not sleet mix like radar says just been out here in laindon and we got 22cm so far on top of car, stopped here now but looks like might catch some more in hour or so as it pivots.

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

20 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

What constitutes an Amber or a red warning from the Met office?

Hundreds of Rtc collisions ongoing across the region, some serious.

Roads blocked, cars abandoned.

Reports of falling trees on the A21 in East Sussex due to weight of snow..

They are useless on Sunday nights, seen it happen a few times, they probably got 1 junior forecaster in that has adjusted the warning zone slightly but doesn't have authority to issue amber they probably have to phone someone higher up at home.

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

18 minutes ago, danm said:

It’s pathetic seeing the BBC snow/rain graphics for right now and later this afternoon vs what is actually happening. 

I know that these forecasts are based off latest model runs which may be inaccurate, but why don’t they adjust them manually to take account of what is actually falling out of the sky? 
 

 

 

The forecasts are always worse on a Sunday. I am sure they film them on the Friday afternoon and just play them, none of them work on a weekend