Baldy Snowman
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Posts posted by Baldy Snowman
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snowing out of a clear blue sky here, and lil ole mini drifts forming. cute!
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9 minutes ago, Seasonal weather required said:
This is the only reason I could think of also as there is a really big difference in what is predicted for Carmarthen - Swansea - Cardiff .( 1-2, 2-3, 8-12 inches respectively )
A big difference even from Bridgend to Cardiff.
Now if this was rain would it be so different ?
Considering all areas are slap bang in the amber zone and with frontal snowfall ,I can’t see the difference being so vast .
Higher ground yes but as much as what is being shown for lower ground - no .
This has also been shown fairly consistently so can anyone with more knowledge on this explain ? .
i wouldn't say i'm knowledgeable, but my best guess is just that. GUESS work. the models have struggled every bit of the way with this event. i think it's just a case of suck it and see on the day. the chance is there for every one of us to have an epic time of it, so let's just hope so, eh? let's all just enjoy it. not often we have a big orange warning smack bang on top of us like this.
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hmmm, noticing something about the snow amounts. don't know if anyone else has pointed it out?
the following were the laying snow amounts for 3pm Friday, as per the Saturday 24/2 12Z run..
now here are the snow amounts for 3pm Friday for todays 06z run..
and for today's 12z run..
progressively less and less snow cover. reason to be concerned, or not? or should we just take it at face value, because it's 'experimental'? models haven't exactly covered themselves in glory with this event, have they?
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Just now, whiskers said:
I don't get why they don't make the decision to shut the schools Friday,it doesn't make sense, they know what's happening so why not give people advance warning??
it's because they thrive on chaos. common sense is in short supply with any gov related organisation.
they will make the decision though. they'll have to. people can and do die in these conditions.
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this time last week the low was SUPPOSED to be hitting tomorrow, Wednesday, and ever so gradually it has been pushed back and back, until finally it's gonna hit half way through Thursday. This is the BLOCK. it has been resisting this low all the way, and now it is here, trying it's damnedest to push up against a MONSTER. The way i like to think of it is like a small scrum half trying to push up against a prop. he'll try everything to push him back, but the prop will just stand there, laughing, as the scrum half spins around and around, getting so frustrated he loses control of his bladder, spraying all of his moisture everywhere.......
ok, bit too graphic that last bit was, but you get the picture? the models have been CLUELESS about this, because they hardly ever see this set up, but this is EXACTLY what happened in the late 70s and early 80s, and is the reason Andy has been so confident, because he, like me has SEEN It before. the models try and push the block away too easily, cos that is what NORMAL blocks do, they give in. not THIS one!
Wales and the S/SW always do well in these set ups for big snow events. I honestly never ever thought I'd see this set up again in my life, and honestly, as a courier, it is something I have dreaded the whole time I have done this job, nearly a decade and a half. Not one event has even come close to this perfect storm, and here it is, right on our doorstep! I'm just glad it is nearly Spring so hopefully I won't lose TOO much money.
all i CAN do now is enjoy it, and the associated time off, because there is sweet FA i can do about it. let it snow let it snow let it snow. you youngsters are in for a right royal treat if this comes off fully, let me tell you.
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keep an eye on your attics during it guys and gals. my parents had large drifts up there during the 78 blizzard
. if you have a draughty attic, it could be an issue. the stuff gets EVERYWHERE
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1 minute ago, Jackfrost said:
A further 0-15 cm possible on Friday and Saturday. I think we can be confident that South Wales is in the sweet spot over the coming days, so we can expect towards the upper end of those estimate. ~30 cm depths come Saturday can probably be realistically expected in South Wales, if not a little more, and not necessarily only on high ground.
which, if the wind remains high, will relocate into large drifts everywhere. this is a once in two or three generation event. in fact, THIS late in the season, it's a once in FIVE or SIX generation event. an extraordinary event
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5 minutes ago, andymusic said:
BIG LOL
it's what happened in 78 and 82 too. there were slack periods in those events, but the winds were so insane no-one really noticed. Too concerned with the mountains of white stuff piling up everywhere.
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so, will it be named 'The Great St David's Day Storm' then?
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dont worry about gaps in the snow. if the event is as good, or bad, depending on your point of view as i think it might be, all of the blowing snow will distract you from the fact none is actually coming from the sky
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2 minutes ago, georgiedre said:
and that's just for starters
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it's prudent to prep for the worst, cos if the worst does happen, you'll be stranded, maybe for days, or a week even, with no food or other essentials, like beer.
trudging through shoulder deep snow with 2 slabs in your arms is no joke, let me tell you
seriously though, have you ever seen such an up and down event as this? one minute, snowmageddon, next drizzletown
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slight dusting of BIG flakes in Maesteg.
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sat here on laptop, in bed, heating on, a bit too low i think, cos i can feel a distinct chill on my arms
gonna turn it up a bit i think.....
has anyone posted this snow accumulation 12z gif yet from Derek Brockway?
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39 minutes ago, andymusic said:
where you getting winds from the north from? - easterlies all the way till the weekend snowyowl9 - all our uppers weather coming from Siberia - ECM tonight - cold fairly constant without any let up up to 8th March - GFS - gonna be an interesting weekend - snow could be constant from Thursday through to sunday - mind blowing
EXACTLY like 78 and 82, which, funnily enough, BOTH started on a Thursday and ended on a Sunday, if memory serves me right
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18z looks like a major upgrade, yes?
incredible rollercoaster ride this is
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well, if this DOESN'T come off, all the cry wolf papers and tv weather forecasters need to take a hard look at themselves
when they put a genuine warning out in future, people will just say 'yeah yeah, remember march 2018?'
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beast?
fluffy lamb, more like!
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53 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:
We'll see mate. Not getting too excited......
my missus said the same last night, funnily enough. no, SERIOUSLY, she did, about this snow event!
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41 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:
Is anybody old enough to remember the forecast in the days leading up to the infamous, era-defining blizzard of January '82? I've searched on Youtube for archive forecasts but... nothing.
yep. they said NOTHING was gonna happen. then KERBLAMMO. i am wondering if all this flip flopping is simply designed to prevent panic buying, and hoarding, then come Thursday, 'oops, that took us by surprise'
what IS the latest consensus about the 'big' event anyway, before i go back to work?
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20 minutes ago, Stevetynant said:
At what point this week do you think this will become concrete not juut risk of?
right now i'd say. it will be a huge shock to me now if this doesn't come off. if it doesn't, i'll go snog one of those polar bears
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np andy. so it IS a polar low?
. if you have a draughty attic, it could be an issue. the stuff gets EVERYWHERE
Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion
in Regional
Posted
people are laughing at me, when i go on about how serious this COULD be, even laughing at me this morning cos I said yesterday this could KILL people.
i'm just knowingly nodding my head back at them. even said 'it's ALREADY killed people' referring to that crash caused by the snow in England. some are in for a rude awakening i think.