ARB
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Posts posted by ARB
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Not snowing here in Burton and they appear to have had very little last night - there was more in Lichfield when I left home this morning.
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NAE better for the Midlands - First shift eas after 3 NAE runs.
But it is very light for those of us north and east of Birmingham, a little bit further north east would be nice.
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At this point we really should wait until tonight to see what precp will fall and even then we dont no for definite . We could get a cheshire gap streamer
Given the likely wind direction I don't think that is likely but I would have thought you were far enough west to get some snow at least.
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It is always difficult, hillier areas in the south and west of the region may still do OK, lower lying areas a bit more hit and miss but at least temperatures will be low so any snow that does fall should stick. Plus of course it is a dynamic situation you can get small areas of increased precipitation embedded within the main zone so best not to worry just see what happens.
Plus of course can you imagine the nightmare if you got stuck at work, better if the heaviest stuff falls after going home time on friday!
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There's still a good chance it'll all be further east, we should be looking at what the radar's doing, not what the gfs is saying.
After all, last Monday's snow was well off the mark.
It is always difficult, hillier areas in the south and west of the region may still do OK, lower lying areas a bit more hit and miss but at least temperatures will be low so any snow that does fall should stick. Plus of course it is a dynamic situation you can get small areas of increased precipitation embedded within the main zone so best not to worry just see what happens.
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That's right, yes. There were two cold spells, one in Dec 1981 and one in Jan 1982. At my school (Franche) I was in a class of 36 (not uncommon in those days) and on the worst day 18 people made it in. Including me. That was the winter that it got down to -26.1 °C at Harper Adams College in Newport (Shropshire) -- which is still the all-time low for England.
One good thing about that winter was how widespread the snow was, in recent winters snow has been much more localised in extent with certain areas getting large amount whilst often nearby areas missed out, it will be interesting to see how widespread snow will be this weekend.
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You're only right to an extent. Sure, what's happening in Shrewsbury may be of very little interest to somebody in Grantham. But as somebody living in Hinckley I'm very interested in what's happening in both sub-regions because both are liable to have an impact on me.
We are a bit further west than Hinckley but the weather here does often seem to be more like the east than west midlands, perhaps we should have a central midlands thread (Not a serious suggestion).
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east? surely if anything south and west. yep i wouldnt be surprised such is our luck
I meant west yes, I do suspect the hillier areas of the south and west midlands could be the favoured areas but we shall have to wait and see.
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Freezing fog here, temperature is still as low as -4 at the moment. Possible ice day for parts of the Midlands perhaps.
Bish
No fog here (where I work in Burton on Trent), but the hoar frost looks beautiful. I must confess I suspect Fiidays snow will stay south and east of this part of staffordshire but you never know.
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18z backs the front a bit further south west again, still great snow wise but I still fear this south west trend will continue..
It does seem to be a trend that the models overdo the northward/eastward extent but they are just models probably best not to obsses and just see what happens. At least the weather won't be boring.
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Yeah i agree andy, woyld be nice to be reunited for friday
Personally I preferred a midlands wide thread, the weather here can often be more akin to the east midlands than the further reaches of the west.
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I don't know. That's what I was trying to get at?
preumably it is run on a denser data grid but I am not sure if it does make it more accurate? Are there any stats on this I wonder?
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I might be wrong here, and please correct me if I am, but isn't the NAE run at a higher resolution than the ECM, UKMO etc?
Does that make more it accurate, or just better at identifying smaller features and exact boundaries?
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Roads can be a good guide to the weather. I remember July 2006 when thunderstorms would track up either the M1 or the M40. (I was staying with in-laws in Northamptonshire that summer so did quite well from them!). I suppose the Cheshire Gap streamers make their way merrily down the A41! In an easterly, snow showers can fizzle out near the A1...much to our annoyance!
Then there's the most used one of all...the M4!
Roads often follow natural geographical lines in the landscape so there may be some relationship. The M4 corridor is probably just coincidental with one of the common tracks followed by depressions across Britain which themselves are influenced by the geography of the north atlantic.
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It's hard - I like Hinckley - so literally on the east midlands and west midlands boarder! - and ARB - I live right by the A5 on the watling street @ Hinckley - Here's hoping to a dumping of snow!! ;-)
Are you north or south of it! Seriously one thing we have not had in recent winters is a nationwide event, so let us hope this will be more like some of the epic events I can remember from 1978/9 and 1981/2.
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It was my Dad who came up with the saying that it snowed either north of the A5 or south of it, but rarely across it! In 2009 it was true at times when Birmingham had snow and we had little,but of course it is just a quirk of the weather.
Saying that there are a few zones more prone to snow than others, the North Norfolk coast for instance in a northerly outbreak, or indeed closer to home the Cheshire gap.
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Quick question for the experts on here. As the models show the fronts moving further north east or staying further south west would I be correct in thinking that shower activity would be greatly increased for areas just North of the front with the increase in windspeed and lowering of 850's etc?
Not necessarily usually shower and convective activity in general is surpressed ahead of the main precipitation zones.
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It is amazing how people are torturing themselves trying to discern what will happen. I suspect the worst\best snow will be south of watling street (A5) or at least that is what i am telling myself so if we do get anything i will be pleasantly surprised!
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i like your thinking! good to be positive. too many moaners in this world
Ah but I think some of us secretly enjoy moaning, I must confess to doing so myself sometimes. In reality we should not get too uptight about the weather you cannot influence it just through sheer willpower though it feels you ought to be able to!
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Dry here, temperature 0.0c. Snow is always hit and miss, need to move to siberia.
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I wouldn't have minded missing out so much if last weekends snow hadn,t all gone from here by sunday afternoon!
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The odd bit of snow here, temperature still falling, we might have freezing rain soon.
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Looks like it is turning back to rain here, temperature still falling 0.3c
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Looks to be more snow than rain here now, temperature 0.5c
West Midlands Regional Discussion - 17th January 2013, 12z onwards
in Regional
Posted
Yet in both february last year and monday of this week Burton held onto the snow when it had almost gone completely in Lichfield, 11 miles away - in both cases it was being just that further bit east that made all the difference to the dew points. Todays snow is less marginal however so hopefully we won't get such dramatic differences over very short distances.