ARB

Lichfield staffs 9cm at 8.45pm

More or less stopped here, temperature 0.1c snowdepth 9cm.

Lichfield staffs, 7.5 cm at 7.40 pm

I have gone out and properly measured the depth and it is nearer 8 cm, still snowing temperature seems steady.

I have been for a stroll, pleased to report 2 snowmen and it is still snowing, temperature 0.0 degrees. Snow depth around 3-4 cm.

I think it is probably very hard to be sure for central areas to be fair, l am pleasantly surprised to report that the temperature has not risen yet so there is hope, the gfs would suggest 10cm for here.

Light snow still here, temperature steady at -1.3

Dusting of snow here, temperature dropped by a degree to -1. Hopefully it will stay as snow!

What we need is independent 3rd party verification of forecasts but I suspect that commercial organisations would be reluctant to submit to these. I would like to make the observation that it is in forecasting extremes that forecasting has the most value, and they do tend to highlight such events in their press releases, however I do not see that they have been particularly accurate. Overall I have always found the met office to be the most accurate forecaster, they have made poor forecasts but they do seem to get unfairly judged for other organisations poor forecasts as well!

I have found it interesting reading the discussion in the forecasting thread, one observation I would like to make is that we are coming up to one of those pivitol times in winter when trends can and frequently do change. I remember reading Climate and the British scene by Gordon Manley in it he divided winter into 2 parts, early winter from mid November to Mid January and late winter from mid January onwards, essentially he noted it is extremely rare for long term patterns established in early winter to continue into late winter. This may have some relevance to the forecasting thread since there are tentative signs of changes in the 10 - 14 day range which would tie in nicely with his observations. Logically the most likely change would be to a more anti-cyclonic regime which may or may not deliver the cold that some people are seeking. Given how chaotic models can be at these timescales it probably is valid to look at long term patterns and bring these into the mix when attempting mid-range forecasting. Overall this winter to me feels more like an 80's winter than a 90's winter which would also fit into the idea of a mid winter season switch (Decembers were often quite mild in that decade).

I am surprised how some people assume if we haven't had any cold weather before christmas winter is over. I always thought of pre-christmas snow as a bonus, have a look at the stats for several winters in the 1980s and you will see that a mild december can be followed by a cold january, february or indeed both (1985).

re. Snow this morning in Lichfield, I was outside picking up my newspaper just before 9am and it definately was not snow, a little sleetiness perhaps and there was black ice on the ground. Since then just rain showers. I would also like to add that in my experience snow before christmas was always a bonus, winter proper often only got going after new year - though not always of course!

It does look warm, 10.4 for me.

6.3C

5.1, guess work I am afraid.

I don't disagree but the seas are colder in february and on average the month is colder than december so there is still hope (that is if you want cold weather of course). I certainly would consider it an impressive winter if february came in cold even after a mild january. I also meant to add of course that you are stuck with whatever the weather delivers, so although I sometimes try influence the weather through sheer will power it never works. So you are best to chill out even if the weather doesn't.

Its not always true of february snow, I remember 1991 the snow then certainly stuck around for at least a week, and plenty of it. I also believe that in 1947 the bulk of the snow was during february and early march. And come to think of it I remember 1986 when there was some snow around all month. The sun does melt snow, in marginal situations yes where humidity is high but if the conditions are right snowfall in february can be every bit as disruptive and long lasting as at any other time of year.

I have tried to analyse the coldest decembers to see what the following january temperatures are like, They do come out colder than average but rarely as much as the preceeding December. On that basis I would estimate 2.2C.

It would be a difficult one, it is as naive to assume that future winters will all be cold as it was to assume they would all be warm. As always where you do not know you will have to some kind of cost benefit analysis. I believe that it would be wise to invest in important infrastructure to make it more robust, major airports, motorways etc. However money is not unlimited and we cannot afford to insure against all possibilities. I think one thing that should be looked at is home working, many more people than do could work from home reducing the need to travel during harsh conditions. And in incidences where people cannot work from home perhaps employers should be encouraged to me be more understanding, I believe that in parts of the USA they declare a snow day, offices and industry shut down but the expectation is that people make the time up later or work harder to make up for lost production. We should look at these soft options as well as at buying more snow ploughs especially as they needn't cost very much at all.

I can remember in February 1991 staying up all night as the rain turned to snow, my wife thought I was mad. The daft thing is I am little bit older and I still find it hard to sleep if snow is forecast and spend half the night curtain twitching, luckily we live opposite a field so no one thinks I am a peeping tom!

Hi, the pond is just over 2 feet deep, so in theory it should be deep enough. Unfortunately I was away for a couple of nights when it fell below -10 by the time I got back it was so thick I could not thaw a hole on the surface using a pan of hot water- you should not smash the ice you can harm the fish and damage the pond lining. I doubt whether this weekends mild spell will be sufficient to thaw the pond so it will be a while until I can check what has happened.

You must be putting water out regularly, I am most worried about our fish pond, it has been frozen now for nearly 2 weeks and to a good depth I should imagine. In December 1981 we had a pond that froze to the bottom, you could actually see the fish entombed in the ice. Needless to say they did not survive. I have dug this one deep so hopefully we won't have the same problem. As for the water birds I went for a walk by the river Trent earlier today, the steam was rising from the surface and the water felt positively warm in comparison to the air temperature of about -8 so they still have that option.

5.5 centimetres - Lichfield Staffs