seb

Contrary to your random claims, the entire run shows above average temps, save one 12 hour blip where temps may marginally drop below average, barely any rain and nothing that even remotely resembles autumnal weather outside those areas which would consider what is shown as standard September or even summer weather (i.e. the NW of Scotland and parts of Ireland). There is the usual spread between members after day 8 but the majority sits above average for temps and the large majority sits well below average for rain. I honestly don't know what you are looking at to come to the conclusion of lows "persisting" from D10 to D16. A low pressure system moving across north of the UK, which appears to be the reason for your analysis, does not equal autumnal weather, quite the opposite in many cases. So once again, the low on Saturday 16th does not impact the large majority of the UK. What is shown for Tuesday 19th would, but that is of course so deep into FI that other than taking a quick glance at it, it would be foolish to rely on it.

Parked? That would mean stationary which, again, is categorically not the case. In any event, there’s no deep areas of low pressure over the UK until deep into FI at day 13. As you keep mentioning day 10; there’s a low north of Scotland which does not affect the majority of the country.

GFS struggling with the Atlantic as always in these setups. Two polar opposite runs at 10 days plus. Also once again underlining that you should compare like for like and not run for run. In other words compare 12z with 12z and not 12z with 18z. Overall we need to remember that patterns like the current one are always harder to shift than shown by models, in particular the GFS. This year we of course, more so than ever before, have a lot of unknowns to factor in (if that’s possible) - very high sea temps, very active tropics among other things.

Hot until at least Tuesday then warm and barely a drop of rain for the southern half of the UK until deep into FI on GFS and ECM. Couldn’t ask for more

And that’s all fine but you still should not present that as fact. One sentence you used is “I agree that Autumn is arriving with torrential rain, low temps and strong winds and storms.” Not only is that not supported by any other model than the GFS (one run!), it’s also not even showing on that GFS run. There’s no torrential rain and neither are there any storms that would affect the UK. The entire run has no 24 hour period with even heavy rain nor are there any gusts higher than 50mph (and those are isolated in the north of Scotland!). Also, the poster you quoted did not say that (and I'd be very surprised if he ever made such a claim). The quoted sentence is the epitome of Express or GBN. That is all I’m saying. No attacking but asking you to be more balanced and careful with what you post.

That’s the point. The majority are not, as they should. I gave an example above of a post that presents possibilities as fact.

As per my post above. Although you of course didn’t state anything as fact. Language matters. Many people rely on what posters say here. We’ve even had “news”papers copy stuff from here before.

I’m not attacking, I’m highlighting that it’s baffling you’re stating a possibility as fact - e.g. “[…]lasts for around a week at least with plenty of rain on the way”. You are free to say what you like but likewise, others can criticise what you say. As with anything in FI, there’s a possibility the GFS is correct just as there is a possibility it is not. Without looking at its cluster members we don’t even know probabilities.

Baffling how one model run that shows the opposite of what the previous run showed in deep FI, during hurricane season, is even taken half seriously. Especially true where it’s the model that always and constantly exaggerates the Atlantic during periods of high pressure. We are seeing near record high temps and people talk about named storms and high rainfall amounts in 12 days time because one single run shows that.

Nice storm earlier. First time I have driven in one in a long time. Round 2 just starting and with a bit of luck we get round 3 later. Still horrendously muggy and temp back to 24. Even in the heavy rain earlier it never went below 22!

Huh? It’s absolutely gorgeous. Well above average temps across the country (a few small areas excepted).

You really have to stop taking every single model run as gospel. Just some friendly advice!!

It also often throws up different solutions than than 12z and 0z, yes. That’s the downside of 4 runs per day (publicly available). It’s useful for events within a 48-72 hour time frame, for example hurricanes. That was in fact one of the reasons for increasing the number of runs of the GFS years ago. The point I’m trying to make is that you don’t look at the 6z Op, conclude it’s better or worse than the 0z and just take that as gospel. More often than not they will differ considerably at 7 days plus and often even at 3 days plus.

Why are we still comparing the 6z GFS run with the 0z? There have always been and will always be periods where the 6z is wildly different to the other runs (many reasons for that) and if that also happens to be a period where other models are close to what GFS is showing on its 12, 18 and 0 runs then that is the time to ignore the 6z. Or, to be super safe: compare 12z with 0z and the other models’ runs at those times.

To be fair the South or more accurately the Southeast has been lucky throughout. We’ve barely had any rain here apart from Friday evening for about 30 minutes. It’s bl**dy windy but mostly sunny and that’s how it’s been all last week (less windy before yesterday). while I’d like heat, I can’t complain. Very useable weather and nice temperature to sleep.

Seconded. And maybe some other models too…

Negligible rain amount all the way through the end of the run in the areas I mentioned, temps always above average and often warm. Wouldn’t call that pants

This. And it has been going on since late summer 2021 if not longer.

ECM this morning goes even less unsettled. Anywhere South and East of Birmingham now seems to need luck if anything more than a few rain drops is what is desired.

Ok then…

Yep it’s really heavy and wet snow. Trees struggling already and cars stuck because it’s so slippery.

Wow that went from ice pellets to big fat flakes giving a good 1cm covering in 20 minutes. Lovely stuff

It does indeed. Not the biggest area but quite heavy for a good few hours and overnight as well.

More likely because it’s the BBC’s Meteogroup forecast, recorded early this morning and based on last night’s ECM and not the Metoffice forecast as cited (which does mention the possible snow inclusive of possible disruption).

No surprise considering the linked video is the BBC 10 day outlook… as always solely relying on the ECM run from 12 hours ago.