jamesthemonkeh

Howie 10 days away but it does also have some support as the ECM medium-range and CFSv2 long-range suggest a high pressure anomoly to the west. Pretty much makes up my decision to go on holiday in May! More hope for latter parts of May, I'd suggest (albeit without evidence).

LOL should be sufficient analysis.

LetItSnow! Yeah I think the set-up for next weekend could be tasty, more bothered about the dull and cool that could follow, at least for the eastern half. Long way away though.

ECM seems to have switched to low pressure close to our south-west for next weekend and possibly a warmer flow. But I can easily see how this ends up in an easterly flow for early May. Not a joyful prospect here in London!

There is hope for dry and warm ahead...albeit anything classified as both in March looks more likely to be fleeting.

CFSv2 is very keen on higher than normal pressure to our north in March - one assumes it is reacting to the probable SSW, and perhaps reading too much into it. Taking even less notice than normal until the SSW happens and we see how the dice roll, but seeing hints of northern blocking into April and May doesn't fill me with hope, as a warmth-seeker. Certainly been an interesting winter synoptically, if it hasn't delivered what many on here desire.

There seems to be quite a shift away from cold and dry, to mild/very mild and wet over the last day or so, in the modelling. Caused by what? Even the ECM which may show colder air for next weekend, seems to suggest to me that the Atlantic is ready to come back with those uber-mild south-westerlies. Do I remember correctly that SSW responses are often initially westerly-driven, until the easterlies/northerlies drip down into our level?

CFSv2 has upgraded the high pressure anomaly for March to the north-west of the UK...but on the flip side, there is also a low pressure anomaly to the west of Spain/Portugal. The former suggests cold, the latter suggests warm. Interesting, if nothing else.

The CFSv2 remains bullish on a high pressure anomoly to our west for February, though it has trended it a little further east in recent days. A drier than normal month seems likely. Does anyone have any thoughts as to whether our "reflective SSW" could still have impacts on our weather in March/April (assuming no further warming events) and whether we could still end up with high pressure further north? It seems to me that previous SSW events increased northern blocking in the following months, and not only after the immediate impact - ie also April/May 2018.

Not sure which posts you refer to, and I'm very wary of disagreeing with an esteemed poster such as yourself, but there has been a trend in recent days to give more oomph to the low to the south-west, as I and a some of others have tentatively pointed out, along with the unusually warm uppers being sucked into Iberia. This is not just a single model run. That said, the evolution of the low from 96 through 168 still looks a bit strange to me. Anyone saying X area of the UK won't or will get snow next week, is, well, speaking slush. Everywhere is still in the game...but there is definitely a possible mild and wet outcome here.

Look at those tasty uppers coming into Spain late next week! The trend does not appear the coldie's friend, though I think you can still be heartened by the ECM. If we get the cold in first, then the background scenario could be fun levels of snow for many, though that remains an if, to my possibly misguided eyes. Though the temporary end to the cold spell, as backed up by more knowledgeable posters on here in terms of MJO, etc, now does seem to be signalled for some point next week/next weekend - can we get some fun first? (slight south/central England bias here so apologies)

I always look at the models before coming here to check the reaction, and I was expecting a proper toys out of pram evening in here...yet everyone seems very excited. Hmmm. To my eyes, there seems to be more forcing of the low pressure to the south-west, and more of a push of relative warmth into Iberia, on the 12Z tonight: Am I misreading? Hmmm. It looks to me that though the chance of battleground snow over England has increased, also the risk of rain and relatively milder conditions has increased too. If I was a fan of cold, I'd be more wary this evening. That said, I am a fan of heavy snow, so maybe I'll join in and be excited too...but memories of December 2022 and how that definite/probable/possible/not-happening snow event was modelled make me too cautious for this, right now.

Brrr from GEM (I trust my analysis is sufficient)

CFSv2 has those pesky/delightful Iberian heights in February - make of it what you will. Though a couple of days ago it had much more extensive northern blocking. Not sure I give it much credence right now, especially with stratospheric goings-on - I wouldn't be surprised to see it flip post-warming, once more. But maybe a cautionary thought for those dreaming of two months of cold. And a bit of hope for those, like myself, who'd love a bit of late February mildness.

Where do you find the Cansips model?