OldMetMan
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Posts posted by OldMetMan
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To be honest these charts arent massively different.. Certainly not compared to the monstrous changes needed for your forecast to verify. All we see here is the high presure over the UK being slightly differently situated, what you need is a monster storm to develope out of nowhere in the areas you have mentioned! (And not just a common deep area of low pressure that the charts have hinted at..)
At least 3 GFS runs over today and yesterday have shown striking similarities to MB's forecast. I do not see why "monstrous changes" are needed given the type of flow predicted for early Feb.
If you take a look at the synoptic pattern for 31st January 1953 storm you will see that the "monster storm" which produced so much devastation did, in fact, develop out of nowhere. A weakish low pressure area was off the west coast of Scotland and rapidly intensified as it moved E and then SE.
I mentioned earlier that, as far as predicting any intense cyclogenesis is concerned, the only model I would trust would be the UKMO, so by tomorrow or Thursday we should have a better idea of what, realistically, could happen in the first days of February.
I get the feeling here that some posters really want MB's forecast to fail because should it prove close to the mark, it would seriously undermine conventional forecasting methods. We are looking at a radical departure from accepted ideas on how atmospheric systems come about, that's kind of heretical to some folk unfortunately.
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Your posts have been extremely useful to my further analysis/evaluation of the likely outcome.
Thanks MB, interestingly the latest GFS shows a curious departure from previous runs:
http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110125/06/204/hgt500-1000.png
Such a development is capable of VERY tight gradients if it comes off.
I think the models will start to consolidate a trend from this point on. The UKMO is the one to watch, as I consider it to be the best at picking up rapid low development, I think the October 1987 storm did much to improve their forecasting parameters in this area!
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We know that +180 is a long way out (and the models do tend to move about a lot), but (for what it's worth) here's my comparison of the latest GFS for 12:00 on 1 Feb 2011.
The models have been very ambivalent, as I mentioned yesterday, it all depends on whether the deep low forecast to develop near Nova Scotia within 3 -4 days deepens enough, and turns to the NW, so as to allow the downstream trough to amplify and thus allow a rapid low pressure development to occur as per your forecast. It's this area that the models don't seem to have a handle on yet.
Purely from an historical point of view of synoptic development, your scenario is the more likely as I see it, given the present pattern. Blocking highs such as we have seen in recent days more often retrogress.
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Well, just for the record, and for what it's worth, this GFS chart is interesting to say the least:
http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110124/18/177/hgt500-1000.png
Granted, it is the 18Z run, it is still a long way out, but this particular solution has appeared in yesterday's run also. I mentioned earlier that, given the predicted synoptic pattern around 29th/30th, strong cyclogenesis south of Iceland is entirely possible. The GFS seems to think so too.
But wouldn't it be something if it verified?
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The models seem now to be straying from where they were on earlier runs, with HP sinking SE rather than retrogressing.
I think the dilemma lies in the situation shown by the current UKMO at 72hrs:
http://www.metbrief.com/EGRR.html
The trailing cold front running SW through Iceland is fertile ground for a rapid cyclogenesis if..and it's quite big if..the low shown developing near Nova Scotia at 72hrs deepens markedly, high pressure would then strengthen ahead of it , pulling back the HP over the UK and allowing enough space for a low to run N of Scotland and into the North Sea.
The models suggested something similar in earlier runs but now seem to think low development will continue to run NE towards Iceland instead.
This is a very tricky one and could really go either way. I mentioned once before about a similar development in February 1969 which gave a very strong and cold northerly. The infamous January 1953 storm also showed a broadly similar pattern, but on both those occasions there was slow moving low pressure over N and E Canada.
This will be interesting to watch.
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The last couple of GFS runs have shown a noticeable shift, with HP being maintained. This is today's:
http://www.netweathe...hgt500-1000.png
Still a long way out, but notice the short-wave features running SE. If the general synoptic pattern pans out as shown, there would be plenty of scope for really tight gradients over the North Sea.
The 120hr UKMO is broadly similar in the run up to the end of the month.
http://www.metbrief.com/EGRR.html
With persistent HP over us as it has been, and will continue to be for some days yet, the usual development historically is for retrogression of the HP to take place with low pressure moving SE over or to the W of Scandinavia.
The next couple of days will be interesting to see if the models maintain this development.
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I am finding the criticism of what MB is doing here tiresome.
As I see it, if the pressure pattern is broadly similar during the first few days in February, regardless of whether the severe weather event materialises or not, that alone would be an astonishing achievement, given how long ago it was created. We are amazed here if any of the models get it approximately right beyond 5 days!
Even at this point in time, 2 weeks away, given the synoptic development we currently have, and have had, then MB's scenario is entirely possible.
I fear that the validation proposed for the event is more likely to try and negate than validate.
Whatever criteria MB uses to generate his predictions in the first place will continue to be refined through experience. He has consistently stated the experimental nature of what he is doing and has wisely refused to be drawn on detail, this is exactly what I would do if I had been clever enough to come up with such a potentially history changing method of weather forecasting. You may think that description too strong but I don't think so because, from what I understand of its basis, it would undermine a considerable amount of accepted science, not just forecasting science.
I think posters should back off and instead simply watch the progress of current models as we approach February.
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I posted the Feb 2011 forecast on here because I was asked by AF #46 and Snooz #45 to offer more forecasts.
OK if your view is the wider feeling on here, that is my last forecast that I will post. I don't want to risk being suspended from another forum.
All the best
I for one DO want you to continue forecasting, I believe what you have created is very important and I see nothing wrong in the way you are doing it. If the February forecast doesn't pan out - so what? Your previous 2 forecasts were pretty damned good, and as you have been at pains to point out, it is a developing system and you will learn as you go.
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So OldMetMan (# 56), I will publish, it is my prime objective, but only when I know what I write is a proven fact backed up with example after example of how the method works. The “testing†that I am doing at the moment is part of the groundwork therefore to the book.
I really don’t want to spend the rest of my life arguing with people about what is objective truth or science, I will just give them the method with all the backup, which they can test to the nth degree and they can hopefully see it for themselves. If that can happen, we will see the end to the way weather forecasting is undertaken around the world. You can see from my video #2 how the models are found wanting, trying to forecast a day more than 7 days ahead. To quote Roger J Smith from 1 November 2005 “if we built bridges and airplanes the way we make weather forecasts, a lot of people would refuse to get on a plane or drive a carâ€.
Nothing that I will write will be new. It has been known for aeons; how do I know that? Well there are clues everywhere. For example, every time I look at my watch I am reminded. Only someone who had an intimate knowledge of how nature works would divide the day into 24 equal divisions, why didn’t they choose 22 or 20? They chose 24 for a specific reason. Also, why does the watch face only have 12 divisions, why not 24? One can come up with theories all day long, but there is only one right answer and that answer can only be provided by those that have an intimate understanding of how Nature unravels. Please don’t get me wrong, I am still learning and not speaking from any lofty position.
Thanks for your comments to the video Timmytour (#64); as you know, I am no good at predicting snow, so can't say if there will be snow in Herts! BTW, I thought your post #28 was pure genius!!!
Thank you MurcieBoy, I am very pleased to hear it. I understand your measured approach to releasing details of the method and I agree that enough successful hits will prove it beyond dispute.
However, it hardly needs saying, but there will be those who will have a vested interest in debunking what you do, regardless of how accurate your method is, just as happens in the world of medicine when better, safer and more time-tested cures exist in the world of alternative medicine. But I like to think that yours is an idea whose time has come. I think we are entering an era where a lot of accepted theories, and not just about the weather, will be thrown out.
I wish you every success with what you are doing.
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The actual crux of the forecasting of this event took about half an hour, as I wanted to undertake certain checks. Writing up the narrative, compiling the charts and the video took about 18 hours!
Part of me wants this forecast to be totally wrong.
I could be proved wrong, but I cannot see how this forecast will not come to pass. If this forecast is not closely fulfilled, I shall spend an awful long time probably trying to work out where it all went wrong!
If my level of expectation of the 12 Nov ’10 prediction was say 75% positive; my expectation for this forecast is considerably higher.
So here it is folks, the Great North Sea Storm of 2011 that should (if it happens) go down in history:
MurcieBoy, that is a very scary scenario. Looking at the synoptic evolution, that is by no means unreasonable in terms of development, but obviously the stength of the pressure gradient is critical. Apart from the famous 1953 storm which has some similarities synoptically, another instance I can recall was in February 1969, when I believe the strongest low level wind gust was recorded in the Orkneys of over 130MPH. A very strong gradient developed in an intense N flow, with small polar lows moving S.
I shall watch developments with interest and look forward to your further reply.
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MurcieBoy I am glad you have appeared on this forum, I read your other threads elsewhere and I am hugely intrigued by your methods.
One thing I would like to ask, you mentioned that you had plans to publish your findings in time, is it still your intention to do this?
I am looking forward to your predictions re this rare weather event.
Please keep us all apprised of how you are doing with the development of your method. I sense that what you are doing is very important.
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Hi folks, hope you all survived Christmas - had the damn flu myself so I am glad to see the back of it!
Today temp was nearly to double figures - 9.7 the warmest day since Nov 13th!
I've been amazed these last 2-3 days just how bad the advection mist and fog has been. It just shows how very cold the ground must have been. Be glad when the wind picks up a bit and at least lifts the cloud base! Ugh, I hate this murk!
Happy New Year to all!
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For the last 2 days the temperature here has only varied by1/2 deg, day and night, but at last the low cloud has cleared so it's starting to fall. I don't think there's much likelihood of the weather down over France affecting us, judging from the cloud motion the jet is carrying it away to the NE.
Something I have been meaning to mention and I don't know if others have noticed it in their areas but all the Oak trees in and around Southampton still have their leaves - all brown of course but I don;t think I have ever seen that before. I guess it shows how little we have had in the way of strong winds through autumn and winter. I suspect that, sooner or later nature will re-dress the balance!
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anyone think the heavy radar echo currently out in the channel just south of Weymouth might make it into our area tonight to produce more snow or are they just going to skirt along the coast and perhaps affect Kent
Looks like it's heading for the Isle of Wight. Temp here is Southampton is falling to close to freezing, but if it clouds over most likely it will rise, so I doubt if it'll snow from that.
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There's been some strange, rapid temperature changes, temperature going up and down by 1/2 deg in a few minutes each time. Currently 1.8 and still raining a bit. Most of the snow has gone now.
The wind is more noticable from the east now, so I expect the temp will start to fall.
In spite of the wash out on the coast here, I sense we haven't completely finished with the snow here, the winds are going to be more NE for the next few days.
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its time to hand control back to the atlantic
Personally - and I know I am speaking heresy here - I'll be glad of a break from the coldness. It is possible to have too much of a good thing!! I'm tired of having freezing cold hands and feet, having to slither about on slushy pavements and roads.
Don't worry, snow fans, this winter is exceptional and I have strong suspicion that the snow will be back with a vengeance. This certainly is a December unlike any I have ever known - and that is saying something!!
Anyway, off to the worst place on earth......Bursledon Tesco!
Ah I know it well! I have that pleasure to look forward to later in the week!
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Oh. There appears to be a new band of intense precip appearing between Brest and Lands End.
Could hit this area in a few hours? Could it intensify? Could the temps have dropped by the time it makes landfall?
Just trying to reignite those down in the dumps (rain). This winter, anything is possible.
I agree, in all my years I have never seen a winter like this - it's unreal!
The GFS for early January is showing another northerly blast, a long way away yes, but it was spot on with the current cold spell.
In the short term, we will still have low pressure near by, and I think the wind will start to back, and stay backed to the E or NE as the developing low over Iberia moves NE and absorbs our low. So all that cold air currently inland is going to return. Yes, anything truly is possible!
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Some sort of front has clearly gone through here, temp gone up to 1.5 from 0.8 in about 15 mins. Mod to heavy rain, winds now appear to have veered to the S.
The 13H analysis shows the low over Cornwall has hardly moved. I guess what might happen is the whole thing will slide eastwards, perhaps with a new low forming over us, and the winds will gradually turn back around to the E or NE, so those of us with rain now could see it turning back to snow before it dies out.
Next couple of days could go either way for us on the coast, the old front stuck over us, gradually fizzling out.
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All rain again here in the bowels of Southampton! Temp 1.0. At least it doesn't appear to be freezing on the ground.
Winds appear to be backing more to the SE to ESE.
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The worst weather event I ever experienced was when I was working as a weather observer for the Met Office, in January 1976. I was on evening duty around January 6th, between 2100 and 2200, I recorded a wind gust of 82Kts, it was a new record for the weather station (Cardington in Bedfordshire, home of the old R101 airships). It blew heavy metal gantries around outside and it took me and my night-shift relief to open and close the Stevenson Screen! Very scary!
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Southampton - Temperature is 2C, moderate to heavy rain, snow is melting at a steady rate. No sign of any freezing rain.
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Just noticed that Shoreham on the South Coast went from -7C 19F to +4c 39F in 1 hour between 8pm and 9pm. An increase of 20F.
Does anyone have any details on record temperature increases or falls in a 1 hour period? Maybe Mr Data??
gobby
Temperature here in Southampton has risen from -2.8 at 1915 to 1.5 right now, not so spectacular but the snow is thawing quickly. Amazing how the wind off the sea can warm things up so quickly!
Incidentally, the 15cm snow depth we had yesterday is most likely the highest we have had where I live in 30 years! And definitely the earliest significant snowfall in that time.
Better Than The Models ?
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Do I detect a note of sarcasm here?
I do not think you actually read his initial posts (or his posts on other forums) or you wouldn't be so rude about his methods. Besides, what you have just posted only proves my point that MB is speaking heresy as far as some are concerned.
What cannot be understood is ridiculed, it's been happening for centuries.