OldMetMan
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Posts posted by OldMetMan
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There seems to be a bit more continuity, at least from the GFS, over recent runs. Mobile conditions until at least the medium term. I'm still surprised at how quickly the HP block broke down, but I guess that is how it's been so much this year. The conditions late next week look interesting, quite a powerful jet propagating across the Atlantic, with more of a southerly track.
There are still hints from the models in recent days that a more stable upper flow pattern will be set up in the longer term - I still think we will end up with an extensive cold pool and trough over Europe and an upper ridge to the west and north. Meantime, some stormy conditions to come.
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Seems to be a bit more consistency today, at least as far as the GFS is concerned. HP in charge until the weekend, light SE to E, flow, probably a lot of cloud with the old fronts breaking up over the UK. What I am having trouble with is the development into next week. At this stage, I think the ECM has the best handle on it, showing the upper trough digging south to the west and disrupting, taking the associated LP some way E over the UK and then SE in the Continent. As I mentioned yesterday, blocks of this kind usually break down from the SW, but it still seems to me to be happening too quickly per the GFS.
It's interesting that the GFS is returning HP to the N of us next week and, although too far away to put much trust in, the charts for the later part of next week have a very characteristic appearance of extended HP to the N and the jet beginning to take a more southerly route, the kind of set up we saw a lot of early last winter.
I think we need to keep an eye on N Europe and eastwards, for signs of significant cooling as we get nearer to November, too early at this stage to expect that. I believe that this is where any early start to winter is most likely to come from, so over the next week or two it'll be most interesting to see what the models come up with..
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welcome back OMM,good to have you on board again.
Thank you Peter, been preoccupied with too much other stuff for a long while, my instincts tell me we will see some very interesting weather in the coming months - and I don't necessarily mean cold and snow!!
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I felt I should comment on the 12Z GFS, as it suggests yet another solution, quite different from the 06Z. It seems to have come about because of how it is handling the amplifying upper trough to our west and NW. In my experience, blocking highs such as we seem likely to get the end of the week and over the weekend tend to break down from the SW, so a LP developing at the S and SE of the upper trough seems most plausible to me. Now whether the LP pushes E over us or slides away SE is the tricky question.
I also think a lot depends on the developments over Canada and Eastern US. If we get a large and slow moving LP there in about 5 days or so, then the LP over and to the SW of us seems more likely to sink SE, as depicted at 06Z on the GFS.
Looking back at the synoptic patterns over the last 6 weeks or so, it's been a predominance of zonal patterns, apart from the blocking at the turn of the month that gave the exceptional heat. But I still think the trend is towards meridional patterns, and particularly I see a continuation of LP over the Med. In fact, the UKMet 120Z yesterday was suggesting the upper trough to the W extending S with LP developing across much of the Med, right across to Spain. This would favour the continuation of the HP block, with easterly flow over the UK, not particularly cold, but - and I think this is crucial - a pattern that has a strong tendency to repeat itself in my experience. Clearly, such a recurring pattern as we head into winter proper would doubtless bring significant cold.
I will be interested to see what today's UKMet 120Z shows.
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As has already been mentioned, something of a change of direction with the GFS, although I have to say that the development suggested by the latest run looks more realistic than previous days' runs. It has looked to me that the predicted HP block to the east was previously being broken down too quickly. Given that we have had months of persistent zonal flow with very weak HP in the main over or near us, I think a more blocked pattern is long overdue.
The ECM seems to be sticking with the previous GFS idea of bringing in more low pressure, but it doesn't look very convincing. There was a good post by Isolated Frost yesterday (thanks for the welcome back by the way!) mentioning ex-TS Phillippe and its role in the current situation and I also think the strength of the upper warm ridge to our west will be affected by the adundance of warm air that Phillippe has brought with it. This in turn will also affect the duration of the block to the East.
Beyond the weekend, GFS is keeping blocking going and also dragging in cold air across Europe. As I mentioned yesterday, I think we will start to see clues of how the coming winter will start, at least, in the coming days' runs. It all looks most interesting!
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I've been following recent runs of the GFS in particular, noticing some major swings, but there are some current features in the circulation that have grabbed my attention and it is worth relating these to what the models are saying.
In particular, I am impressed by the fact that we have 498dm thickness values already over N Greenland, seems a tad early for that sort of cold, whilst at the same time very warm air (564dm) is still hovering close to the south of England. Suggests to me that what the GFS is predicting, namely a strong jet and intense low pressure after this week is entirely possible, with such a strong temperature gradient.
Also, the flow is turning distinctly meridional, particularly with low pressure developing over the Med, pulling down some quite cold air across E Europe. The GFS also shows another cold air incursion into Europe later this week and into the weekend. These are the sorts of patterns I have seen get repeated and I think it would give us some advance warning of cold to come if cold air starts pooling over Europe quite early as a result of the cold troughs repeatedly diving south across Europe.
There has been a lot of ludicrous speculation in the Press recently about the dire winter we are supposed to be getting this year. I woud suggest that if such were to be the case, we should see certain indicators occurring quite soon, such as the degree of polar cooling as well as that over Europe as i mentioned above.
Meanwhile, not much action this week, although the tropical maritime air over the south of the UK is abnormally warm for this time in October. I think by the end of this week we will have a much better idea of the likelihood of this predicted cold, wet and windy spell to come. ,
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I got a similar reply from the Met, disruption not widespread enough they said! Don't think people in Dorset, Hampshire and Berkshire would agree.
I've lived here in Southampton for over 30 years and I cannot recall such sustained heavy rain over such a long period. Usually, there are lulls but this was continuous and heavy throughout the best part of 4 hours. It'll be interesting to see the rainfall figures.
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Yes I agree, normally the warnings are very good, they have certainly known about it for at least 2 days. I have sent an email to them requesting an explanation as this is unacceptable.
Just checked on the Met Office website, a yellow warning for heavy rain has been issued for parts of Hampshire, Berkshire, Surrey and the Home Counties, issued at 1518..
I suppose you could say better late than never. I hope people in Dorset particularly make a fuss and complain!
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Contrary to many here, I actually have liked this sort of summer! It's the heat I can't stand.
I suggest we may see some more significant blocking during September, perhaps into October. I'm keeping an eye on the Atlantic Hurricane Season, not much action so far but the storms that have formed so far have often been heading out with the westerlies, so if this trend continues and we get some more energetic storms coming across, this could have the effect of intensifying ridging across the UK as the very warm air associated with these storms gets pushed NE to the north of us.
In any event, this spell of zonal weather has been going for quite some time now, it seems likely to run out of steam at some point.
In the nearer term, the forecast synoptic pattern for the weekend looks interesting, low pressure pulling in some hot, humid air from the continent, could see some serious thunderstorms and very heavy rain.
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25 to 50mm of rain in 4 hours reported widely from Dorset, Hampshire and Berkshire.
I asked the question on another post but WHERE was a severe weather warning from the Met Office?? It certainly wasn't on their web site. I can't believe it.
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Very wet here, nearly 4 hours continuous heavy rain, very unusual for here. Temp is lower now than it was at 8am, only 13C.
I am astonished there have been NO severe weather warnings from the Met Office, they have known this was coming for at least 2 days. Just down the coast in Bournemouth there has been some serious flooding.
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Some further thoughts on the latest model output in relation to MB's forecast.
In broad terms, the models indicate an increasing zonal flow from now until the first week in February, but with the possibility of one or more quite intense lows moving to the N of Scotland and heading into Scandinavia. High pressure is generally shown to be retreating steadily to the S and SW, except the NOGAPS which brings a strengthening HP in mid-Atlantic by 4th February.
The basis of what MB has predicted relies on having fairly intense HP just to the W of the UK with low pressure coming from the NW and, as far as the models are concerned at this stage, that doesn't seem very likely, at least not in the time frame of up to 5th February.
However, there are still features of the current synoptic situation that bother me, which I have referred to before. Specifically, the very southerly jet over N Africa, with associated low pressure over the Mediterranean. Whilst this remains, we still effectively have a block, albeit at a more southerly latitude than previously. The models do show the upper high of this block now over us moving to the E and gradually collapsing but we will still have that upper trough over the Med. Now, if we had the very common situation of HP from the Azores E to the Med, or just across S Europe, then I would see no complication arising from a strong SW jet, as forecast currently, taking control of our weather.
But, based on how I have seen developments take place before in the past, whilst that southerly block exists, there remains the possibility of the scenario I described in my last post, namely a distortion in the upper flow - trough over E Canada/US, ridge in mid-Atlantic, corresponding trough over or to the E of the UK. Long trains over low pressure originating out of Canada/US frequently end with a major low pressure developing at the end of the train, sufficient to deepen the upper trough in that area - i.e. over E Canada and setting up the upper long wave pattern downstream as I have just described.
As I said, the only model that hints at this presently is the NOGAPS. If such a development did happen, I am not sure it would occur within the time frame in question here but I do believe it's a possibility.
As before, if any more technically knowledgeable posters wish to explain why the above couldn't happen, please feel free to weigh in!
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An excellent post this and one worth reading and taking note of.
Very interesting BOM showing the potential storm on a more southerly track but I suspect that we will see more chopping and changing as we get nearer the time as there potentially is a lot to go on. The increased amplification in the Atlantic is a development worth watching as I too think LP being pushed E or SE looks wrong. Anyway D Day approaches and this is what we are here for.
BFTP
Thanks BFTP, just had a look at the UKMO 144hrs, it seems to be following the NOGAPS trend, shifting more towards a NW flow. The GFS is rather similar to its earlier run so we'll see what tomorrow looks like!
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Great thread Murcia Boy. Hope your forecast verifies. It is quite unbelievable some of the nonsense you have had to put up with.
And thank you OldMetMan. I enjoy reading your expert analysis - absolute quality. Yourself, RJSmith and Bluearmy (Nick L) are far and away the most knowledgeable posters on this and other UK weather forums (TWO and UKWW).
Thank you carnoustie, you are most kind.
Good read OldMetMan, thanks
Many thanks weatherguy.
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Wow! Thanks very much indeed for that analysis OldMetMan. This is exciting!
According to the Storm forecast, the Arctic winds will change direction by 1 Feb to from Westerly to North Westerly.
The ECM 12z chart for 3 Feb you provided was highlighted by LS too. For me, that chart shows my "methods" classic expectation around the UK - just a wee bit further south for that time (nb: I appreciate the Storm forecast is different for 3 Feb)
You're welcome MB. I hadn't noticed the reference LS made, sorry. But it's a remarkable turnaround, it will be interesting to see if any of the other models pick up on it.
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I have been studying the model output closely today and there are 3 factors that are niggling me, and this usually means that they are relevant! I have already made reference to them previously but I will expand.
1. NOGAPS today continues with the trend from yesterday of veering the jet from 1st February to a more NW or WNW direction. The flow is shown to become much more zonal by then but the point is that systems will come at us from the NW. All along I have felt the models were handling the movement of the train of lows coming out of the US the wrong way. I base this on the synoptic development this month so far and the fact that I have more often seen HP retrogress when in its current position that progress E or SE. The models are keeping the low procession on a very similar track heading NE and then E for an extended period and that just does not look right to me.
MB, the synoptic development depicted in your forecast is for low pressure to be coming from the NW. From where we are right now, in order for this to happen, we need to see the jet back in direction off the US eastern seaboard and for the main Atlantic HP to take over in the W Atlantic, gradually moving NE to mid-Atlantic. It's been trying to do this all week:
This would all allow the upper long wave pattern to amplify a bit more, it's a bit too flat at the moment. This leads me to the next point:
2. The GFS shows some quite intense short-wave features moving NE to the NW of Scotland and ending up in Scandinavia around 2nd Feb.. These are the kind of depressions that could give the strength of wind in the Storm forecast, but their movement is too far NE. An amplification in the upper wave pattern would turn the trajectory more E and SE, which is what is hinted at in the NOGAPS. There's plenty of energy there in this strengthening jet, it's just going the wrong way!
3. We still have a strong jet way, way south over N Africa which is pretty unusual. So there is also an associated upper trough with this bringing unsettled to stormy conditions in the Mediterranean. In the past, I have seen an upper wave development take place that brings a deep trough S to "join up" as it were, with the more southerly jet. For this to happen it would need a significant low development or developments W of Scandinavia, down the North Sea and into W Europe. The upper pattern then becomes - deep trough over Canada and US; upper ridge rebuilding from over and to the W of the UK to be positioned W to mid-Atlantic and a deep and very long wave trough going as far S as N Africa. That is simplified of course, but that is the general idea.
I must stress at this point that the above is based solely on my knowledge and experience of Atlantic and European surface and upper air patterns gained over many years' of poring over synoptic charts. So, I will quite understand if any of the more technically minded posters shoot me down in flames!
The interesting time will be when the developing, very strong US/Canada jet heads out into the Atlantic within the next 3 or 4 days. In the long term GFS, as Roger as has already stated, shouldn't be taken very seriously. I want to see what the UKMO says for 120hrs later today as I shall be curious to see whether it, too decides to start turning the depression paths in a more E direction.
I have just checked the ECM 12z run and this IS interesting, and a complete departure from previous runs:
That is some gradient off the NE of Scotland!
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Two charts from the NOGAPS and UKMO offer a somewhat new direction:
OK, not everyone's favourite model, but it's the first time I have seen any of the models shift the HP south and suggest more of a NW rather than SW jet, which of course gives greater scope for a system or systems to come from that direction .
The UKMO at 120hrs:
This bears a stronger similarity to MB's equivalent chart for that date than hitherto.
Nothing that startingly in either of these I admit but an interesting, if subtle shift,
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Science (from the Latin scientia, meaning "knowledge") is an enterprise that builds and organizes knowledge in the form of testable explanations and predictions about the world.
What bugs me is a wild assertion about possible future events which is not based on testable explanations (or at least not in a transparent way). This offends the scientific principle.
Pieman
Hmm, I wonder how testable Einstein's theories were at the time he came up with them?
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Paul S,
Well, I have, as you may know, written to the Mods and basically I have been told I have a right to reply. They do not see anything wrong with what has been dished out to me.
For weeks I have had to put up with abuse (look at the abuse of just today); and when I give, nowhere equal, back there is now an issue.
As I said to the Mods, I am happy to leave the thread.
Please don't leave the thread MB, as this is exactly what the cynics and naysayers want. Personally, I don't think you have been aggressive, but defensive as you have every right to be in the face of such out-and-out rudeness from some quarters.
I feel quite a measure of responsibility for the exchanges today because I suggested late yesterday that certain posters want your forecast to fail, because of what it would mean to their belief systems if you were right. It's only too clear to me now that this is indeed the case. What bugs me more than anything is arrogance, especially of the so-called scientific kind, whose perpetrators are never wrong - in their own eyes.
So, I shall try to restrict my comments henceforth to the model changes and their relevence to MB's forecast.
Incidentally, La Bise, I used to work for the Met Office. I have a great respect for their expertise and skill.
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Just to compare GFS output between yesterday and today, with the runs less than 24 hours apart, I think it shows just how "fluid" the forecasts have been.
It may have escaped everyone's notice but on the other side of the Atlantic we had a 948mb low off Nova Scotia only yesterday, I don't think any of the models saw THAT coming.
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Still pretty certain although an element of doubt has been introduced, something that has steadily crept into MB posts upon realising his forecast is not going to pass. Going for the sympathy vote, a bit of drizzle and a breeze will have enough people "convinced" there is some validity in that "theory".
Ah La Bise, so certain are you.
As someone who has always had a "scientific" approach to how life works, I learned many years ago that if that approach hardens into dogma, then you are doomed, in exactly the same way religious dogmatists are. The best we have to work with in our understanding of how and why things happen as they do, and I am not just talking about weather here, are working theories. Anyone who claims otherwise has not asked enough questions.
Instead of dismissing ideas out of hand because they don't sit well with your current beliefs, you might try investigating any number of alternate theories as I have done, then you might come to the conclusion that NO-ONE has a monopoly on truth.
MB might be wrong on this occasion or he may be right. But he is definitely onto something. His 2 previous forecasts showed this, however inaccurate you consider them to be.
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Although I don't agree with this forecast im appalled at some of the comments towards MB. Fair enough if you don't agree but do we really need comments such as "Jackanory". This is dreadfully rude and unfair in my opinion.
Absolutely. Yet it is all too common when established beliefs are threatened. "Global Warming" - oh I'm sorry, I should give it its less contentious title "Climate Change" - this is a good example of a debate that evokes strong responses. Whether you accept that particular idea or not, one thing is for sure, we need to consider every approach to forecasting. Our very survival may depend on it.
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You cant get a jet streak long enough in that area to validate this forecast
S
Not sure what you mean Steve.
All I will say is this:
1. Compare todays ECMWF and GFS from 144hrs and note the differences. Not exactly much consensus.
2. The GFS has, as I already pointed out, suggested on at least 3 of its recent runs, an intense short-wave development between Scotland and Scandinavia within the first few days of February, so obviously such a possibility DOES exist, at least as far as the forecasting parameters within the GFS model are concerned.
3. I have already explained how an intense low pressure area could form in a position that would subsequently lead to a North Sea storm, with or without an associated surge. I have seen such developments happen in the past with very little warning (although without the storm surge) so again I say, it is still possible.
Many thanks indeed OldMetMan; it is genuinely much appreciated. BTW, your summary of the method is accurate.
No, I shall not be discouraged, not even by one iota. I am the method's harshest critic and I have been very impressed with it so far (even though its an Experimental version).
What concerns me though is a "youngster" or indeed others new to the field being discouraged from thinking out of the box and being “pulled back†towards doing what everyone else is doing for fear of being abused/ridiculed. In this age of not discriminating against others, there still seems to be some really deep rooted shameful and spiteful prejudices, that really should haven been buried a long time ago. They have no place in a so called advanced civilised society IMO.
You're very welcome MB and I quite agree with your sentiments. The world needs original thinkers now more than ever.
So whatever happens early February, just think of how many hundreds of light-bulbs Thomas Eddison invented before he made one that worked! He kept at it until he perfected it and I am so glad that you are doing the same!
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I don't want to put any more fuel on the fire than I already have here, with my comments on how certain posters so want MB's forecast to fail, but I just want to make my position clear:
I would be amazed if the drastic weather event forecast by MB were to happen exactly as he said. But even if it were roughly similar, in terms of the overall synoptic pattern but without the great intensity of pressure gradient, I would still consider that to be a result. As MB keeps repeating, this is a method that is under development and in the process of being refined.
I will always strongly defend anyone's right to put out new, radical ideas as that is how progress is made, if there hadn't been such brave people in the past who were always persecuted and ridiculed, then we would still be living in a flat-earth society and burning witches.
As far as the models are concerned, there is still notable changes occuring from run to run, especially the GFS, so no clear trend has been established beyond 3-4 days. Heck even the small disturbance that is currently running down across England wasn't picked up by the models until several days before it happened so what chance is there for picking up what MB has forecast?
As I have already said, the only model I would put any faith in is the UKMO so it will be interesting to see what today's 120hrs shows.
Regarding MB's actual methods, I have been interested in weather and climate long enough (44 years) to know that weather pattersn DO repeat themselves. MB has always said that what he does is not pattern matching, it is using certain parameters to create an index value and then searching for matches to this in the past, and THEN seeing what the weather pattern for those matches are (MB correct me if I am wrong!).
If anyone were to review the literature and scientific texts on forecasting rapid cyclogenesis (and there is a fair amount online) then they would realise that, even with the advanced models of today, such events are still difficult to foresee in advance, even 24-48 hours in advance, as although some of the apparent prerquisites for it to happen are known (e.g. short-wave upper trough phasing with a frontal wave, close to the right-entrance of a strong jet), why it happens sometimes and not others is far from clear.
Don't be discouraged MB even if this particular forecast is off the mark because I believe what you are doing is important, whatever the cynics say.
Model Output Discussion - Early October Onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Today's output is particularly interesting insofar as the GFS, UKMet and ECM are in pretty good agreement, even at the end of this week where they are all bringing a powerful jet across the Atlantic with accompanying intense LP. Yet another transient HP in the meantime around mid-week.
If the end of week LP verifies, I suspect we will then see a slow down in mobility, with complex LP over or very near us for some days. I am looking forward to seeing how the models develop this week; the GFS long-term is bound to be all over the place but I think we need to keep a close look-out for a future blocking trend.
A final point, the hurricane season is still going, with potential for yet another tropical disturbance to head NE towards Newfoundland as they seem to have been doing all season. This is bound to affect the downstream long wave pattern.