Slippery When White
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Everything posted by Slippery When White
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Southwest And Central Southern England - Regional Discussion
Slippery When White replied to Jane Louise's topic in Regional
We just had a cracking hail storm/shower here in Weymouth. -
Good post snowmania - I personally still don't see Dorset (especially Weymouth) getting any other than a brief sleety event if that, but it will be interesting to watch later as you never know what may happen. The more reliable 00z gfs appears to have the cold uppers heading east quicker than previous runs with the snow turning to sleet in the east of the uk quicker than was showing yesterday. -5.9 here this morning is the coldest I have seen in quite a few years :-)
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I should add that this is only my 3rd winter model watching (I have had a life long interest in the weather) so I am learning loads by reading different peoples ideas and theories, whether it be for mild, gales, cold or anything else our weather throws at us....any pointers anyone can give me for things I may not have considered or missed are always welcome. :-)
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Hi there Gotto, I am using historical knowledge of my local area and the latest model runs to try and make a reasoned guess at what I think will happen IMBY. It is very much marginal and Weymouth reguarly receives rain when the rest of Dorset gets snow. I am not doubting other coastal areas will get snow. Weymouth is a bit unique as it is a narrow bit of land that sticks out and has sea air on both sides - this makes a big difference in this sort of forecast. I do think things may shift a little more west as the cold air may well be a bit harder to shift than the models show. I am also encouraged by the low dew points which seem to hang around after the -5 uppers move away Saturday morning (latest run). At the moment I think it is very close but not quite.....a couple of small upgrades in the coming runs would be nice. I hope this shows I wasn't being negative on here or writing things off for my area but just being realistic with what I currently have to consider. Heres to a few upgrades! cheers Hoops :-)
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I would be quite surprised if we saw snow here in Weymouth but being further east and not exposed to the sea air on all sides you may stand a better chance in Pompey. I think the hills of the south will get some but coastal areas sleet or rain. It will be interesting to see if the forecasts later become any more favourable.
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I think mid week onwards is when we should start getting hopeful when/if the cold arrives from the east, although we don't usually get much white stuff from an easterly, it is usually the south east corner that benefits - we need something approaching from the south with an easterly for a decent snowfall. I have long given up on getting snow from the south west or west (like tonight) as the proximity of the coast nearly always goes against us. Basically it is not easy for us to get any decent snow here, but it is nice when it does happen!
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Model Thread - 14th Jan - Mk2
Slippery When White replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Apologies if this is the wrong place to ask but what is the difference between the control and operational runs on the ensembles? I assume the mean is simply the average of all the runs. Thanks Hoops :-) -
Bbc Forecast 12th January 1987
Slippery When White replied to Optimus Prime's topic in Historic Weather
Beat me to it Mr Data, no travel advice, no severe weather warnings and no predicted snow depths....a much simpler time! I just wonder how the Daily Express headline writers coped. -
Thanks Coldfingers, I think I understand the rules now and I will expect snow until something different falls from the sky! I have been reading the forecast model forum recently and was quite surprised at the level of hostility/excitement/arguments (take your pick) about the model forecasts in FI (I really hope I have used that abbreviation correctly as a newbie). At least it is nice friendly fun on here as I think us southeners know that despite the promise of the white stuff we will sometimes be left dissappointed! cheers Hoops
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I'm new to all this so forgive me if I am missing something obvious but.... I thought we needed a min thickness of 528 to even stand a chance of getting snow? I have just looked at the fax charts for Monday and the dam line is nowhere near us, it is over near Scandinavia, so where is all this talk of snow from the west coming from and how could it come about given the set up? Hoops