Slippery When White

We just had a cracking hail storm/shower here in Weymouth.

Having just gone out in the car I can report that it is in fact sleet falling in Weymouth. The temp has dropped back to 2.7c but the DP is 2.3c

Yep, light rain, temp now 4.2c and DP 0.9c

4c now in Weymouth, DP at 0.5c, nothing falling from the sky yet.

A sharp temp rise here in Weymouth over the last 4 hours: -6c at 06:30 and it's now 2.2c with a 0.4c dew point.

Good post snowmania - I personally still don't see Dorset (especially Weymouth) getting any other than a brief sleety event if that, but it will be interesting to watch later as you never know what may happen. The more reliable 00z gfs appears to have the cold uppers heading east quicker than previous runs with the snow turning to sleet in the east of the uk quicker than was showing yesterday. -5.9 here this morning is the coldest I have seen in quite a few years :-)

We are already -2.3 here in Weymouth....it's going to be a cold one tonight regardless of what happens tomorrow!

After 2 nights of hitting exactly 0C I finally recorded my first negative temperature of this winter last night of -2! Current temp -1.2 DP -5.4

I should add that this is only my 3rd winter model watching (I have had a life long interest in the weather) so I am learning loads by reading different peoples ideas and theories, whether it be for mild, gales, cold or anything else our weather throws at us....any pointers anyone can give me for things I may not have considered or missed are always welcome. :-)

Hi there Gotto, I am using historical knowledge of my local area and the latest model runs to try and make a reasoned guess at what I think will happen IMBY. It is very much marginal and Weymouth reguarly receives rain when the rest of Dorset gets snow. I am not doubting other coastal areas will get snow. Weymouth is a bit unique as it is a narrow bit of land that sticks out and has sea air on both sides - this makes a big difference in this sort of forecast. I do think things may shift a little more west as the cold air may well be a bit harder to shift than the models show. I am also encouraged by the low dew points which seem to hang around after the -5 uppers move away Saturday morning (latest run). At the moment I think it is very close but not quite.....a couple of small upgrades in the coming runs would be nice. I hope this shows I wasn't being negative on here or writing things off for my area but just being realistic with what I currently have to consider. Heres to a few upgrades! cheers Hoops :-)

I would be quite surprised if we saw snow here in Weymouth but being further east and not exposed to the sea air on all sides you may stand a better chance in Pompey. I think the hills of the south will get some but coastal areas sleet or rain. It will be interesting to see if the forecasts later become any more favourable.

4.2 here in Weymouth and raining quite steady, I'm not sure why the radar is indicating sleet creeping into the area!

I think mid week onwards is when we should start getting hopeful when/if the cold arrives from the east, although we don't usually get much white stuff from an easterly, it is usually the south east corner that benefits - we need something approaching from the south with an easterly for a decent snowfall. I have long given up on getting snow from the south west or west (like tonight) as the proximity of the coast nearly always goes against us. Basically it is not easy for us to get any decent snow here, but it is nice when it does happen!

Hello Lambski and Caroline!

Apologies if this is the wrong place to ask but what is the difference between the control and operational runs on the ensembles? I assume the mean is simply the average of all the runs. Thanks Hoops :-)

Excellent - I for one would definitely appreciate it. :-)

Beat me to it Mr Data, no travel advice, no severe weather warnings and no predicted snow depths....a much simpler time! I just wonder how the Daily Express headline writers coped.

I still don't see it myself, but the METO have just issued a heavy snow and strong winds warning for SW England on Monday (issued yesterday ) and Tuesday (turning to rain). Odd call looking at the charts, but interesting.

Thanks Coldfingers, I think I understand the rules now and I will expect snow until something different falls from the sky! I have been reading the forecast model forum recently and was quite surprised at the level of hostility/excitement/arguments (take your pick) about the model forecasts in FI (I really hope I have used that abbreviation correctly as a newbie). At least it is nice friendly fun on here as I think us southeners know that despite the promise of the white stuff we will sometimes be left dissappointed! cheers Hoops

I'm new to all this so forgive me if I am missing something obvious but.... I thought we needed a min thickness of 528 to even stand a chance of getting snow? I have just looked at the fax charts for Monday and the dam line is nowhere near us, it is over near Scandinavia, so where is all this talk of snow from the west coming from and how could it come about given the set up? Hoops

What does BFTE mean please? cheers