Slippery When White
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Posts posted by Slippery When White
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Chanlk and cheese. Having left the balmy rainy coastline only 30 minutes ago I arrived at the sprawling metropollis of Piddlehinton and, well, it's snow. Grainy stuff but heavy and settling on the track outside.
Looking outside the marks I made whilst executing an attempted 'handbrake turn' upon arrival (I know... grow up) are already covering over fast.
Having just gone out in the car I can report that it is in fact sleet falling in Weymouth. The temp has dropped back to 2.7c but the DP is 2.3c
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Well, good luck with that one.
PPN just started here. Light rain at the moment.
Yep, light rain, temp now 4.2c and DP 0.9c
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4c now in Weymouth, DP at 0.5c, nothing falling from the sky yet.
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A sharp temp rise here in Weymouth over the last 4 hours:
-6c at 06:30 and it's now 2.2c with a 0.4c dew point.
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Good post snowmania - I personally still don't see Dorset (especially Weymouth) getting any other than a brief sleety event if that, but it will be interesting to watch later as you never know what may happen. The more reliable 00z gfs appears to have the cold uppers heading east quicker than previous runs with the snow turning to sleet in the east of the uk quicker than was showing yesterday.
-5.9 here this morning is the coldest I have seen in quite a few years :-)
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I have resigned myself to seeing a combination of snow and heavy sleet now. I believe that my location is right on the edge and I'll see the milder air push through by the time I wake up on Sunday morning. Just hoping that there is enough snow for the kids to build a snowman!!
But tonight is going to be chilly. Current temp -1c, DP -7c and humidity 66%
We are already -2.3 here in Weymouth....it's going to be a cold one tonight regardless of what happens tomorrow!
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After 2 nights of hitting exactly 0C I finally recorded my first negative temperature of this winter last night of -2!
Current temp -1.2
DP -5.4
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Hi Hoops.
Yes I know Weymouth relatively well and it does have its own microclimate as do a lot of these south coast locations. Knowing your local patch is also very valuable and this is precisely where brave predictions for specific locations in the MOD thread can go awry.
No point in guessing whom will miss and whom will get serious snow at this stage.
Kind Regards
gottolovethisweather
I should add that this is only my 3rd winter model watching (I have had a life long interest in the weather) so I am learning loads by reading different peoples ideas and theories, whether it be for mild, gales, cold or anything else our weather throws at us....any pointers anyone can give me for things I may not have considered or missed are always welcome. :-)
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Just a question, why is everyone writing off things for their areas before the main event and possibly others have even arrived.
Common sense comes into these things and it is most probable that coastal areas are least likely have a full on snow event. However, I seem to recall in recent years, Newbury barely had 4 inches of level snow when coastal parts had much more.
Please wait until the event is knocking on our door and we can all be thankful for what arrives.
Cheers
gottolovethisweather
Hi there Gotto,
I am using historical knowledge of my local area and the latest model runs to try and make a reasoned guess at what I think will happen IMBY. It is very much marginal and Weymouth reguarly receives rain when the rest of Dorset gets snow. I am not doubting other coastal areas will get snow. Weymouth is a bit unique as it is a narrow bit of land that sticks out and has sea air on both sides - this makes a big difference in this sort of forecast.
I do think things may shift a little more west as the cold air may well be a bit harder to shift than the models show. I am also encouraged by the low dew points which seem to hang around after the -5 uppers move away Saturday morning (latest run). At the moment I think it is very close but not quite.....a couple of small upgrades in the coming runs would be nice.
I hope this shows I wasn't being negative on here or writing things off for my area but just being realistic with what I currently have to consider.
Heres to a few upgrades!
cheers
Hoops :-)
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Are we confident about south coast snow forecast?
I would be quite surprised if we saw snow here in Weymouth but being further east and not exposed to the sea air on all sides you may stand a better chance in Pompey. I think the hills of the south will get some but coastal areas sleet or rain. It will be interesting to see if the forecasts later become any more favourable.
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more temperature reports guys n gals please. 1.7c AT and 1c DP, 1027.7hpa falling.
the above being from Newbury, Berks.
Other reports around your areas can be accessed via Wundeground websites and similar.
Latest radar grab looking hopeful?
Cheers
gottolovethisweather
4.2 here in Weymouth and raining quite steady, I'm not sure why the radar is indicating sleet creeping into the area!
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Hello Hoops - when do you think the white stuff might arrive our side of the Ridgeway
I think mid week onwards is when we should start getting hopeful when/if the cold arrives from the east, although we don't usually get much white stuff from an easterly, it is usually the south east corner that benefits - we need something approaching from the south with an easterly for a decent snowfall.
I have long given up on getting snow from the south west or west (like tonight) as the proximity of the coast nearly always goes against us.
Basically it is not easy for us to get any decent snow here, but it is nice when it does happen!
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Hello Lambski xx
Hello Lambski and Caroline!
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Here are the Aberdeen ensembles for the 18z,never seen such a sharp difference between the operational run
and the ensembles at such a short timeframe.
Normally the op.runs lead the way?
Apologies if this is the wrong place to ask but what is the difference between the control and operational runs on the ensembles? I assume the mean is simply the average of all the runs.
Thanks
Hoops :-)
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I've got some free time today so I'll do a pdf on where the low is going to form, indeed already started, and why, its probable track etc, sometime this afternoon or early evening.
I know for many on here you already appreciate what is happening and why but it may help new folk to get a better understanding of why our weather is described in climatology books as 'Disturbed Temperate' !
Excellent - I for one would definitely appreciate it. :-)
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Beat me to it Mr Data, no travel advice, no severe weather warnings and no predicted snow depths....a much simpler time!
I just wonder how the Daily Express headline writers coped.
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I still don't see it myself, but the METO have just issued a heavy snow and strong winds warning for SW England on Monday (issued yesterday ) and Tuesday (turning to rain).
Odd call looking at the charts, but interesting.
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You will soon learn hoops that a lot of wishful thinking goes on in these threads. Sunny South Coast knows well that to suggest something could be rain rather than snow almost amounts to sacrilege and some like to bury their heads in the sand and hope against reason that what they wish will be fulfilled. I must say it doesn't often happen on the CS thread but some of the regional ones can become a bit of a bears den at time.
You are correct, unless the models change by Monday there is no chance of anything but rain.
Thanks Coldfingers, I think I understand the rules now and I will expect snow until something different falls from the sky!
I have been reading the forecast model forum recently and was quite surprised at the level of hostility/excitement/arguments (take your pick) about the model forecasts in FI (I really hope I have used that abbreviation correctly as a newbie).
At least it is nice friendly fun on here as I think us southeners know that despite the promise of the white stuff we will sometimes be left dissappointed!
cheers
Hoops
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What like the rain we got on Monday?
I'm new to all this so forgive me if I am missing something obvious but....
I thought we needed a min thickness of 528 to even stand a chance of getting snow? I have just looked at the fax charts for Monday and the dam line is nowhere near us, it is over near Scandinavia, so where is all this talk of snow from the west coming from and how could it come about given the set up?
Hoops
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What does BFTE mean please?
cheers
Southwest And Central Southern England - Regional Discussion
in Regional
Posted
We just had a cracking hail storm/shower here in Weymouth.