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95 Degrees

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Posts posted by 95 Degrees

    Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, matty007 said:



    Being serious though. I doubt we will see this sort of upper air temp potential again in June for a very long time.

    If it doesn't come off, it's been very dissapointing to say the least. My gut instinct however is telling me that this is going to be one those events that is grossely underestimated by the models/temp forecasts.

    Agreed, this event has the potential to be truly historic across France, and possibly the UK as well. Such uppers warrant a memorable spell, I think Friday/Saturday are being seriously underestimated by all the forecasts.

    • Like 1

    Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

    These app forecasts are a complete waste of time!! However, an easterly will still have an impact on east coasts even with high uppers, I guess, and quite a long way inland if the winds are high.

    So how hot next week?? Sorry, this is going to be a long post...

    I'm keeping a keen eye from an IMBY situation. I think this could be massive for the south coast. Most models just do not see hot spells for my neck of the woods in the Solent, but as soon as a settled spell turns to a light flow from the E, ENE or NE, the highest temperatures are often found here or down the road in Bournemouth. So many times the Met Office forecast has been 6C or 7C too low even on the same morning!

    And many model predictions are absolutely perfect for a South Hampshire heatwave. Last night's ECM, for instance, is unbeatable - light easterly, extreme upper air, pressure 1020mb, origin of air continental which had already been hot for days, probably not too much cloud interference:

    ECM1-168.GIF?12  ECM0-168.GIF?12

    Drawing comparisons with similar events of the past - 2018 - Last year, almost identical time of year, Gosport reached 33.2C on this chart. Lots of similarities in the flow / action of a cut-off low pumping air off the continent. But look in the difference in uppers - nearly 8C.

    ECM1-0.GIF?12  ECM0-0.GIF?12 

    I could allow for the fact that sea temperatures would have been higher, and ground drier - but even so, that would not compensate for an 8C difference in uppers. 

    Now look at the temperatures the GFS forecast for 1st July 2018 just 36 hours before it happened!!!

    image.thumb.png.279f9218d9aea91393a0350ef2042077.png  

    wow - forecast temperature for the Gosport/Solent area, 22C; ACTUAL temperature, 33C!! It only started to catch up at T3 (though still not enough!!).

    3-582PUK.GIF

    On to 2014 - a little remembered hot spell, since it was only really hot on the south coast - the east wind kept temperatures down elsewhere. Locally (and in the SW), 31C was reached on these charts:

    ECM1-0.GIF?12  ECM0-0.GIF?12

    Slightly more favourable time of year, perhaps a more stable high, perhaps a little flow, but more of a North Sea element than 2018. Yet we were above 30C daily in the Solent that week in just 12C uppers. And the summer up to that date had been nothing special.

    Going back to an even more famous event - look at the similarities with next week!! August 1995. 32C/33C recorded widely on the south coast on these charts.

    archives-1995-8-2-12-0.png  archives-1995-8-2-12-1.png

    Not a bad match for next week! Yet similar results to 2018: 16C uppers resulting in 33C. Again, we can factor in the hot weather before this date, exceptionally good sea temperatures. But can that really account for all the difference that will be made between the uppers in these situations, and the uppers forecast for next week?

    So finally, I try to think - specifically for the Solent - have there been examples of high uppers not resulting in hot temperatures on an easterly flow at this time of year?

    In all honesty, I can't think of any examples in mid-summer where a light easterly in settled conditions, which were preceded by some warm days, did not result in a 17C hike on the upper air temperature recorded except when under a frontal system or thundery activity. 

    So to sum up ... I'm going to stick my neck out ... **IF** the most favourable models verify for next Thursday / Friday ... then I'm predicting a temperature of between 35C and 38C right here on the South Coast.  

    Would be quite something to be sitting down on Southsea Common with temperatures over 30c! as you stated it happened mutliple times at the start of July last year, very exicting times ahead. Keep up the great posts.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

    I have a little feeling this will upgrade further and further with models turning it into something very extreme, something UK hasn't seen before and something that will get the weather experts re-writing their books..  The models must've did this with the Aug 2003 heatwave, just upgrading it run by run until it became the killer heatwave its known for..  but that was 16 years ago and climate is forever changing at fast pace. Most summers we see big heat constantly being shunted East, maybe this time round we just got lucky.
     

     

    Shhh don't curse it now while the GFS is rolling out.

    • Like 3

    Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by 95 Degrees

    Still think this Summer could be reminisent of 2015 in many ways. not a very good summer especially compared to last years masterpiece but with major short-lived spells of heat. next week showcases that possibility, although GFS has gotten carried away on the latest run for sure. This time the difference seems to be so far that the heat might be centrered over more Eastern Europe rather than Spain, Portugal & Southern France like it was in 2015 (2015 was one of Spain's hottest Summers on record.)

    • Like 1

    Best/worst months and seasons of the 2010?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    On 26/05/2019 at 13:57, 95 Degrees said:

    Best/Worst:

    Jan: 2010, 2011

    Feb: 2018, 2014

    March: 2018, 2010

    April: 2011, 2012

    May: 2018, 2013

    June: 2014, 2012 

    July: 2018, 2012

    August: 2013. 2010   

    September: 2016, 2017

    October: 2018, 2012

    November: 2015, 2012

    December: 2010 (closely followed by 2015), 2012

    Best Year: 2018

    Worst Year: 2012 (Hate this year for just about everything in general.)

     

    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by 95 Degrees

    7 hours ago, Ben Lewis said:

    Foul day. 

    Strange reading those praising a November like day in August when you have 6 months of it coming up. 

    23c on Friday and 25c at the weekend with no rain - that’s better at least. A useable weekend for us week workers. 

    Massive recovery of yellow grass and vegetation - as I said weeks ago to those having a panic attack because their lawn isn’t green, nature will balance out.

     

    Much preferred that yellow grass, yellow is my favourite colour and it made for some great photos against the landscapes, moreover it fits the vibe of summer more, after all the grass is always green in the other 9 months and in normal summers. Also for walking in the countryside, dust<mud anyday.

    Back to boring nothingness from here on out. With that said no complaints about 2018 weather wise, 26th Feb-Last Tuesday was a truly fascinating period of weather.

    • Like 1

    Summer 2018 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    9 hours ago, cheese said:

    In your neck of the woods, August is the sunniest and warmest month of the year on average, as it is in many southern and eastern locations. Admittedly, August has been rather lackluster in recent years but that is a tiny sliver of climatic history. Or perhaps you haven't been alive for very long so recent Augusts constitute most of your living memory?

    We'll get another 1995 or 2003 in the next few years, then all of this 'what happened to August' malarkey will disappear.

    I was born in 1993, so the only good August's I remember were from my childhood. In recent years the best months have been July (last month down here was superb) and occasionally June/September.  

    • Like 1

    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by 95 Degrees

    1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

    Cold wet and thoroughly miserable.

    The last two days have sadly taken the shine off this summer. 1995 and 1976 has no days as truly awful as these two back to back. Such a shame and so very depressing. Warm and wet is passable. Cold and wet no.

    Don't let nostalgia fool you, a quick look back of the stats from both 1995 and 1976 at London Heathrow & Gatwick Airport showcase that there were about 4 or 5 days in those summers that were sub 18c and raining during the day. This summer particularly because of the fantastic May still sits alongside those two summers at the moment. 

    With that said, I'm really missing being able to be outside like on Monday & Tuesday, now this is only possible with a fleece which is never fun, and you can forget sitting outside when everything is so rain soaked.

    • Like 3

    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by 95 Degrees

    3 hours ago, SLEETY said:

    Horrible day,don’t know how people prefer this normal type of British summer weather to the lovely hot weather over the past few months.Models backed away from hotter weather this morning too

    Well everyone has their different preferences and we must respect that. However I will never personally consider 30c for a few days with low humidity 'oppressive summer heat' that to me is a perfect summers day, but that is strictly my opinion. Either way this weather today is depressing and a reminder why I usually dislike summers in this country much, predictably no storms like always on Tuesday night but pointless drizzly rain which won't green up the grass much anyway. Looking forward to next week when I can go outside in the evening without being cold and do long hikes in the countryside. Visiting London's parks on Monday was awesome, felt like I was in Madrid with the 32c and yellow grass.  

    • Like 1

    Summer 2018 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    6 hours ago, JK1 said:

    29°c at  Shoreham airport today, 2 degress warmer than forcasted ☀️

    Warmest spot in the country today I believe, although St James Park briefly reached 29C. Haven't experienced any summer like it in the UK, by this point in August even the legendary 2006 was faltering, and that didn't have a good May (apart from one day on the 4th May in 2006) compared to the fantastic May this year. even 1976 had a worse May than this. 

    • Like 1
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