kmanmx
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Posts posted by kmanmx
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Moderate to heavy snow here now in Leics, settling quickly .
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1 minute ago, andy_leics22 said:
If the front would now like to kindly stall and pivot for 12 hours, it would be much appreciated
No Andy ! , it's still bone dry in Leicester ! haven't seen anything more than 1/4 of a centimetre all winter yet.. or last year too
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It was due to keep moving north for hours yet, and clearly still is on the radar. Not sure why people think its stopped.
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3 minutes ago, MKN said:
There has been the odd occasion we get in on the act from snow moving in from various directions so sometimes its beneficial but overall its better in this part of the world for the summers, less rain and recently some decent temps.
Yes true, I can remember one or two times we did okay, but it is pretty rare. Do we really get less rain here ? anecdotally, it doesn't seem like rain ever struggles to get here to me, but i've never checked the actual figures for us versus the rest of the UK to be fair.
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8 minutes ago, MKN said:
Lol i had to laugh at that. Having already missed out on snow yesterday to the East, Last week to the West we now have a warning which is to our north east and south.
That's the beauty if Leicestershire. Whether the weather system is from north, south, east or west - we miss out regardless.
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1 minute ago, WelfordRd said:
Its like torture by a thousand needles watching the precipitation clear out to the east, we are actually dry now. Unless the radars are wrong i am not sure how it will snow here this afternoon as there wont be anything falling out the sky. 15 miles North East in Leicester its clinging on but surly they are going to be in the same situ as Hinckley shortly. Does anyone know if the direction is going to shift this afternoon or if that blob to the NW of the Midlands is forecast to actually track south not eastwards.
I know i was told to wait until later but i am calling this as "off" for Hinckley, unless that stuff to the NW tracks properly
Yeah it's not looking good, I admit. It seems further east than modelled. I'll give it a few more hours but it doesn't look good. Fingers crossed for another event before the end of winter failing that.
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6 minutes ago, WelfordRd said:
Hope your right but i have been burnt too many time to get any hope up. - The main concern is the precipitation is moving East rather than South/South East. According to the radar the we are now west of the precipitation and its moving away not towards us. The only hope is the stuff due north actually starts coming South and not East
Aye, I know the feeling. Live in Leicestershire myself. We rarely do well here even when it's forecast
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2 minutes ago, WelfordRd said:
All a bit of an anti climax again for us in Hinckley - Heard for a couple of days we where right in the mix etc etc. The reality is that its raining, the precipitation track/direction is doing the complete opposite of what it was forecast to do and moving rapidly eastwards. Whilst i knew it was going to go Pete Tong, its still annoying when it happens. Think if i am that desperate for snow i need to move! lol - As it seems to miss us to either the North, East, South and West
You need to wait until 2 or 3pm before calling it off. If you look at models like the Arpege, it is supposed to be raining now - as it is. It then sinks south and edges west slightly mid to late afternoon and turns to snow. So remain hopeful for now
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8 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
Cuts Stoke-on-Trent in half, and I just about squeeze into the warning area
Honestly that's what I normally see with Leicester. This is probably the first time in ages i've seen us well inside the warning zone. Feels nice for once , not that I expect much snow regardless.
1 minute ago, MKN said:Temps still rising here. 3.3c and dew point of 3. We need to see temps heading the otherway quite quickly
From what i've seen it's really not due to turn to snow for a good 4 hours yet.
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And there it is
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Safe bet - follow the MetO warning zone guidance. They're right more than they are wrong. Access to better models than we have...
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HIRLAM and ARPEGE looking quite nice to be fair for majority of midlands for tomorrow.
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7 minutes ago, Wadey said:
Well I don’t believe it snow falling here
I don't believe you either
Pic 4 proof
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Yeah zero sign of any snow in Leicester. On the positive side, I saw three 1mm size flakes on the way to work which means I have, technically atleast, seen it snow in leicester this year
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1 minute ago, MattStoke said:
I’m like that with both
Just wish I knew someone outside of the internet who likes weather like I do
Same. It's funny sat in the office at work with all the plebs chatting utter crap about the weather. I have to really resist the urge to correct them all the time.
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Just now, Vmistry said:
I'll be happy just see some snow falling, I love watching the snow fall in front of the lampost, it's therapeutic. Sad I know
Not sad! that is why we're all here. Nature is always better than watching the utter crap on TV.
Fingers crossed for our area and other midlanders.
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4 minutes ago, Serendipity said:
Why are people talking about let downs before the event has happened?
Why delay what you can do right away ?
On a serious note, forecast is unlikely to be wrong at this timeframe. Anyone outside of south midlands is unlikely to get much if any snow. It's still worth keeping an eye out of the window and fingers crossed, forecasts can and will be wrong even in these modern times. But odds are it will be largely correct.
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5 minutes ago, Weather of Mass Disruption said:
Another tragic let down. What a joke of a winter this is turning out to be! I try (really hard) not to get frustrated by such things but what gets my goat, is that you can guarantee if it was rain forecast it would have no problem reaching any of us! Don't get me wrong, this morning was amazing, stunning hoar frost with fog, looked and felt as it should do in winter, but to last just one day, give me a break!
Next week looks vile, temps up to around 7 - 8 with rain. What are the chances of the models having that incorrect!
I keep hoping the models are going to flip to a more sustained pattern due to the SSW and down welling, but alas, the wait goes on...
Time to find the funds for some proper winter holidays, if I can't get snow here, I'm going to go where the snow is!
As for your last sentence... i've been skiing every year for the past 15 years to the alps. 1 week each year. Do you know how many times I have seen it snow in those 15 weeks ? once, and about an inch. Every single week I choose to go, it's dry and sunny. Don't get me wrong it's nice to ski in the sun, but I want to see a massive dumping of snow atleast once in my life. I just got back from Les Arcs last week, and then the day after I got back they had 60cm of fresh snow fall. Even last year when they had a huge amount of snow and 3 meter high drifts, I still managed to choose the dry week
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Just now, Runcible Spoon said:
met offce raw data now gone from 4 hrs heavy snow in Hereford later evening to 6 hrs of it a bit earlier. Must be a signal for an upgrade?
Hopefully but I doubt they'd publish new warnings of the area and extent at this timeframe unless they were very sure. Probably just mild run to run variances of their internal models.
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4 minutes ago, weirpig said:
Its either North or much quicker than what the models were showing Radar shows front close to swansea icon has it hitting there around 4ish
Seems pretty much inline with the Hirlam for mid day to me.
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8 minutes ago, Vmistry said:
I'm sure Leicester only got like 6cm from that event
Varied quite a lot. I got about 6 or 7cms too, but 5 miles east of me was more like 10 to 15cm.
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5 minutes ago, Vmistry said:
Look at all these from the BFTE last year, pretty much everything missed us
Lol I remember that. MattStoke has similar look in his neck of the woods
5 minutes ago, markw2680 said:The usual people righting it off before we get to lunchtime lol, yes the forecast do seem to say it’s struggling to reach here but nobody really knows at this stage. Give it chance
To be fair we're like 18 hours away. The chance of ICON, Arpege, Hirlam and ECM all being wrong at this stage is < 20%.
Some people in southern midlands will do okay out of this though, a few centimeters perhaps.
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Just now, Vmistry said:
Leicester never gets more than 5cm. Pretty much bang in the middle of the midlands. Either too far east, west, south or north. Any ppn from any direction decays before it even gets here
Yep tell me about it. On the plus side we get the dregs from most snow events as we're central. But like you said, we never get much from any event either. Most i've ever seen in my south Leicestershire area is about 7cm.
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Just now, Vmistry said:
Yep seems like the front is struggling to get much further north and east, complete disappointment compared to a few days ago
Ah well what did we expect lol, it seems like we go from a nice event predicted to much of nothing in the 72 hour timeframe probably 90% of the time pretty used to it by now!
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Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward
in Regional
Posted
Looks like it's going to stall around notts, so someone in that region should do well!