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kmanmx

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    The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    Just now, MattStoke said:

    Watch it stay there. Bloody weather.

    Tonnes of snow for my brother in Ireland and cousins in Devon. Plenty for the rest of my family in London. Hardly anything here.

    To be fair Matt so long as the models and MetO are correct, then it is supposed to go well north and leave through the NE coast. So should start going more north at some point.

    The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by kmanmx

    11 minutes ago, Matthew Gill said:

    The band over the channel is meant to catch the one up currently around the m4 and feed energy into it i think

     

    5 minutes ago, andy_leics22 said:

    Spot on.

    You can see the PPN over the south midlands picking up already as the stuff to the south bumps into it and intensifies it.

    Thank god a few people get it :D I thought I was going crazy :p

     

    3 minutes ago, Vmistry said:

    Ppn just seems to be going west again though??

    Should change to N or NE as the track of the low moves, I believe so anyway.

    • Thanks 1

    The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by kmanmx

    6 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

    The band is supposed to pull together and organise as it comes north. Anyone thinking it's going to be Armageddon with Orange on radar is badly mistaken, it's a weak affair with patches of heavier stuff - you just need to hit the jack pot there. I'm hoping it comes later, when it's dark. That way it's going to stick. There's a thaw going on as we speak - if it falls this afternoon in daylight there's no chance of accumulation. We need that wind to slow down or else it will be a repeat of yesterday. 

    Not expecting much here, south of Birmingham again today. 

    You're right about the weak affair part, but I don't think it's the case about the wind. If you go to a ski resort in the alps, it is pretty much windy all the time, exceptionally so higher up mountains. 70 to 120mph winds high up on a very frequent basis. But, the snow still settles. Sure there are massive drifts, but it can't blow away into space and vanish. It has to settle somewhere, no matter what the wind is like. 

    FWIW:

    To everyone commenting that the ppn in the south is weak, well yes it is. But it is supposed to merge with more ppn from the channel later in the day, and therefor intensify somewhat.

    • Like 1

    The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by kmanmx

    2 minutes ago, mr benn said:

    Bbc now saying 1 hr of heavy then just light snow rest of the day till 6pm

     

    Can i ask which of the forecaster websites seem to be the best.  Tho you guys all seem more clued up ! 

    I wouldn't rely on any of the websites, they just use raw model output and don't have any professional forecaster input, so they are sketchy at best especially in terms of precipitation. Watching the Met Office video forecasts on YouTube are probably your best bet. They tend to issue one in the morning, and another in the afternoon. If you're familiar with model watching you can see raw weather model output on Meteociel.fr and weatheronline.co.uk > expert charts area. 

    The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by kmanmx

    2 minutes ago, Ian Ballinger said:

    Will Telford get any from this?

    Yes, if GFS is correct atleast. You are well placed in fact.

    By tomorrow morning:

    image.thumb.png.70ec3cdd2dea7c635823b3e9b65b1702.png

    Just now, shaky said:

    Any pics buddy?

    See above ! ^ :)

     

    Though as usual everyone should bear in mind model output accumulation charts are notoriously inaccurate. Nothing more than a very rough guide.

    • Like 1

    The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by kmanmx

    7 minutes ago, The Wolf said:

    Is the Midlands still on for a pounding later? Any idea what sort of time the snow may start to effect us?

    Arpege and Hirlam should let us know around 10am. Will post here with the output...

     

    Just now, WinterWilf said:

    Just can't see where this snow is going to come from yet.

     

    Last nights model run (that latest we have atm) showed it just kind of accumlating out of nowhere. So from what I can tell, it's not something you can currently see on radar.

    The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Nicky Shepherd said:

    I love reading the forums BUT I get hope for a dump of snow as others have, I am left feeling very envious of others wins.  Leics has failed again.  we had snow, the grass is covered, but not the depths of others.

     

    I went for a lovely walk last night, Glad I Did as the weather was superb, blowing snow in the icy wind,  drifts, fabulous!  Roads for a time were covered too.

     

    we can hope for more today but I do think being so central is our downfall for many reasons.  We live in hope for any snow event because there is always a chance !!  

     

    :yahoo:

    Being almost perfectly central we have the benefit of getting affected by easterly and westerly systems whereas other areas don't, e.g. those far west will rarely see easterly showers, downside is we never get any real snow depth because we just get scraps from every system. 

    The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by kmanmx

    1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

    What a joke.

    5DC076BE-F95D-4594-9A9C-C6BB845DE1C8.jpeg

    Sucks doesn't it! the conditions last night were quite cool with strong winds and fine snow blowing everywhere, but no more than a half centimetre accumulation before 10pm, and none after as it looked indentical this morning to before I went to bed.

    Here is hoping todays event is better. I feel like we deserve it after 4 days of disappointment snow wise. I have still really enjoyed the siberian like conditions this week, but it's a bit gut wrenching seeing the majority of the country do so much better snow wise. Fingers crossed for later :)

     

    The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by kmanmx

    Hirlam a downgrade for tomorrow unfortunately, precipitation does similar to what it does today (but heads east instead of west), readily dies as it heads NE. Seems to die out after coventry sort of area. 

    On the plus side, it shows the ppn going a bit more east and north in the next 2 or 3 hours, only slightly mind.

    The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by kmanmx

    5 minutes ago, MKN said:

    lol no. rain falling on frozen surfaces which freezes on impact

    7 minutes ago, bearing said:

    Can't remember ever having freezing rain, is it supercooled?

     

    Uhm, it actually often is supercooled. That is why it freezes instantly. 

    "Freezing rain is the name given to rain precipitation that freezes on contact on surfaces maintained at temperature below freezing by the ambient air mass. Unlike sleet, a mixture of rain and snow, ice pellets, or hail, freezing rain is made entirely of liquid droplets. The raindrops become supercooled while passing through a sub-freezing layer of air hundreds of meters above the ground, and then freeze upon impact with any surface they encounter, including the ground, trees, electrical wires, aircraft, and automobiles."

    • Thanks 1

    The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by kmanmx

    Outside is truly epic. The flakes are still tiny but it seems to be drifting and accumulating nicely. Really is quite evil weather outside. Looks like it's pivoting into west midlands so likely won't get any heavier or much accumulation for my neck of the woods, but I think you west midlands are in for a great night :D Have fun.

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