kmanmx
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Posts posted by kmanmx
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10 minutes ago, Herefordweather said:
You’ve got to be honest though, it’s a rather pathetic easterly so far when you compare it to previous events and the hype last week.
I guess, but personally I never expected any different. My memory is not the best but I can never really remember easterlies delivering here. Just too far inland, the precipitation dies down as it arrives, and the case of showers seeming to go north, south, east and west of your location of course is genuinely frustrating! but it's pretty much as expected. I never really like easterlies. I prefer a massive huge band of precipitation the size of England to devour the entire country
I guess I am not dissapointed because I just didn't expect much in the first place. Still, we have a low coming up and delivering something Thurs/Fri/Sat, and that is still to play for. So fingers crossed.
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7 minutes ago, Snowy L said:
The "beast" arrived here 36 hours ago and will be gone in about 70 hours. We are already about 30% of the way through this cold spell and so far we have had dustings that are all gone when the sun comes out. No dressing that up, its disgraceful.
"The beast" is an area of high pressure cold... why would you expect so much snow ?. It was always about cold, not snow. Snow is just a potential side effect for any light precip hanging around the high pressure area. If it was a low pressure system then sure, expect a tonne of snow.
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A pleasant dusting this morning.
Sat in the office listening to people who have no idea how the weather works, giving their "opinion". Now I am no expert, but these people are giving out some right old rubbish. Very tempting to walk over and give them a lecture. One of the senior managers saying the forecasters "have it easy these days" and "need to try harder" because their "wildly inaccurate forecasts are a joke and unacceptable".
Grr. They don't have the slightest idea how complicated it is and all the hard working people doing their best to keep people like them safe with the best forecast possible!
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2 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:
ICON has generally been pretty accurate this winter to be fair
Ha, fair enough. Not paid much attention to it really. I just look at the GFS and ECM. I see ICON mentioned a lot in the model thread but I figured it was just because it came out first.
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4 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:
ICON shows Fridays low stalling over Midlands from T99 to T120. However, knowing our luck, it wont verify.
It's ICON, it wouldn't verify if it was T3
Though, i'd totally bank that if I could!.
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1 minute ago, MattStoke said:
Just as the Polar Low approaches so it misses here probably.
Considering you're probably the best placed in the midlands for tomorrows PL snow, you should be a bit chirpier..
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15 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
Well, easterlies suck here. Friday had better deliver.
Not much better here. Before this spell started, I said I didn't normally have much enthusiasm for easterlies being in Leicester. They're often shower based like this time and they rarely make it far inland with much intensity intact. Plus I just find showers frustrating as you constantly see them go either side of you.
I am trying to be optimistic for the rest of the week though
Maybe the sheer quantity and persistence of shower will deal a few good direct hits to give a nice coverage. Friday has potential too, but I can see that being downgraded as we get closer.
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3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
UK must be the only part of the world where you can have -13 uppers, -6 dew point, air temperature below freezing and the ground frozen, and still not get settling snow.
We're getting towards march so the strength of the sun is significantly higher than it would be in Jan for example, even through the cloud. Even with sub zero temps, the sun can still directly evaporate the snow.
Plus don't forget a lot of roads/paths have been salted / gritted - best to look at grass and walls.
In other news, if you want some hype, use the MeteoGroup forecast. They're a big forecasting agency just like Met Office, so they should be reputable... They provide the BBC with their forecasts.
25mm of precipitation tomorrow, according to them. That's a good amount of snow.
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3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
That Met Office video forecast makes no sense for Tuesday. The track of the low is different to all computer models and goes against their own warnings and written forecasts.
The forecast didn't cover Friday.
Which video are you referring to ? Sounds very much the typical business case of "the left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing".
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9 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
Very strange to see no changes to any of the Met Office warnings so far.
Agreed. EURO4, NMM, Arpege all have the heavy snow tomorrow going north of their amber warning area. Maybe they are waiting til this evening to be certain of it's track, or the Met Office think those models have the track wrong.
3 minutes ago, #windysnow# said:well I was not gonna log on for this spell as it was all going so well
however toys have been loaded into the pram.....just watched the latest METO forecast and its terrible for the midlands tomorrow and also Friday now looking the same.
I would think soon that the Amber warning will be removed for East Midlands
Just a quick question, when the METO updates its detailed hourly forecast for each day how can one hour show heavy snow then the next update for the same hour shows light snow and sunshine....arrgggggggggghhhhhhhh
can anyone give me something to raise my hopes?????
Tip is to not pay much attention to those hourly automated forecasts to be honest. They have little in the way of professional forecaster input, so if the raw output has a shower hitting you it'll give you heavy snow icon. If it then thinks it's going to miss you by 5 miles on the next update, it'll show no snow. In reality it's next to impossible to accurately predict the track of showers.
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Yes finally a decent heavy shower. Only lasted 10 minutes though. Settled quickly on grass, walls etc. Still just a dusting mind
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2 minutes ago, Osamasbinsledgin said:
Travelling in from sunny Spain to Birmingham International, arriving early Wednesday morning, any views on here if the airport will be closed affected
Unlikely to be affected to the point it's closed. Some delays at worst, but equally likely there are not even delays at all. Very hard to say as much of the precipitation is coming from showers, and it's pretty much random as to where will and won't get hit.
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5 minutes ago, BleakMidwinter said:
The radar doesn't show actual precipitation - it shows what the computer thinks the precipitation is.
I spent ages thinking it was totally accurate as a reflection of what was actually falling but it isn't - plenty of times it's claimed one thing and we've had something different. It has its uses, but like everything, not to be taken as gospel or relied upon 100%...
Intermittent snow furries all morning, mostly in bright sunshine, here in TelfordAs far as I was aware, the shape and intensity of the precipitation on the radar pictures is a direct output of the replies a doppler weather radar gets, but the precipitation type (snow, hail, rain) is figured out using weather model output from the latest run. Of course, once the precipitation has started falling it is subject to things like sublimation (essentially evaporation of the snow), which is part of the reason higher up areas get more snow even when the temperatures are low enough to avoid melt even low down at sea level. Some of it just evaporates as it falls, especially when it's lighter in intensity.
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3 minutes ago, WelfordRd said:
Looking at the radar and it's not looking great. Showers loose all intensity after they pass over Lincolnshire. It would take months of this to get any type of covering here just south west of Leicester. BBC and Met Office say showers will pep up and become stronger later but can't see it.
Yeah same here. The showers seem quite intense initially but by the time they get to Leicester they're nothing more than a few flakes in the air.
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Uhm yeah Euro4 is bad even for the majority of west midlands let alone east, it is way west and north
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Thus far snow showers have very little intensity by the time they're over here, it's been snowing very lightly for several hours now but not even a dusting yet. Hopefully more intensity later in the day so it settles
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3 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:
Light snow coming down here now. Considering this was formed all the way over in the North Sea and has made it this far west is encouraging.
Yep. To be fair, while most models have not done well showing the showers making it this far inland for today, looking at the Met Office warning areas it seems as though they themselves were expecting them to do so. Who'd have thought it, a professional weather body knowing better than publicly available model outputs
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5 minutes ago, Bishop Brennan said:
Thanks for the summary, Supacell. I was about to catch up on the MOD thread, but I think I'll give it a miss if the wrist slashers are running amok this morning. The negativity in there can become very draining after a while.
Bish
Just a bit. They're super negative unless there is two feet of snow predicted for London & the south in general, with atleast 4 weeks of sub zero maximima temps...
Couldn't just be happy that we've got atleast 5 days of a potentially historic cold spell for this time of year
In other news, lots more showers headed this way, just started snowing here actually. Light but steady.
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13 minutes ago, Supacell said:
On current check there are 2819 online on the Netweather forum and 958 on TWO.
Netweather is also far more feature rich on the forum side of things than TWO, so they have it relatively easy.
That said, who do you host with ? AWS and Azure can scale up dynamically pretty damn quickly during traffic spikes from my experience. -
EURO4 and NMM not looking good for Tuesday, atleast for my area. Snow has gone north and west, bulk of precip slides southwest down past north Nottingham as far as I can tell, might just scrape past Birmingham. I would expect Met Office to change the amber warning zone to exclude Leicester, Coventry etc, unless their own UKV model disagrees.
Saw a few flakes on the way to work this morning though
hopefully more later.
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I want whatever that ICON is smoking..
Also judging by actual radar output, Arpege and Hirlam seem off the mark a bit so far. NMM looks closest of the available high resolution models.
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54 minutes ago, weirpig said:
Very much a southern bias on there. For us it's very good liking the trend
I had noticed the southern bias, and then just looked at the location of the most frequent posters. Yep, all southern
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Yeah UKMO looking nice, but it'll no doubt change a half dozen times between now and friday. I still don't think there will be absolute clarity on what is likely to happen til later Wednesday.
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26 minutes ago, weirpig said:
Wouldn't say no
Looks great ! only complaint with that timing is i'd be able to get to work before it snowed, but wouldn't be able to get back home
lol!
Next week looks epic though. It's going to be a fun one, that is for sure.
Any models showing rain are off their rocker. We've got DAM down to 510 and uppers of around -15c some days !
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lol!
The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards
in Regional
Posted
It's ridiculous that snow is abiding by the same laws of physics the rest of the universe has for the past several billion years ? okay then
In other news, it was pretty funny watching heavy snow showers pass north and south of Leicester. Back to same old Leicester