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wightwootton

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    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by wightwootton

    3 minutes ago, Singularity said:

    Spotted a drop in dew points in the past hour back down to zero over the Channel and along the South Coast.

    That'll be the low-level cold, dry air from the snow-laden N. France lending us a hand. In fact that downward forcing on the dew points could, alongside evaporative cooling, be a critical factor for the far south that keeps conditions the right side of marginal. Perhaps this is what's given the Met Office cause to depict snow even further south than the model consensus.

    Dew points at 0 c , brilliant. Game on !!! Here its 1.4 c , so getting there !

    • Like 2

    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by wightwootton

    28 minutes ago, Bobafet said:

    This will put a smile on everyone’s faces.

     

    Am I seeing a difference with these two video forecasts that have just been released by the BBC and METO, or I am seeing them wrongly!!

    I realise they use different weather models, but were only 18 hours!! Is it their graphics that make it look different?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather

    • Like 1

    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    Yep, the GFS (P) 6z looks even better for us here on the IOW for Thursday evening.

    Bring it on!!

    And as Blizzardof82 says there are good signals for that easterly developing on the operational.

    8 minutes ago, Blizzardof82 said:

    Snow still on for tomorrow looking at current model output and if the GFS 6z is to be believed we have a BEAST by the end of next weekend 9th/10th Feb.

     

    • Like 8

    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by wightwootton

    7 minutes ago, Kiwi said:

     

    Yes, didn't expect it to be this cold tonight -2.5 c in northern part of Hampshire. Fingers crossed for tomorrow.

    Not a great time for my boiler/ central heating to break down! - really appreciate having a couple of woodburners to keep the house warm.

    Not a great time Kiwi ! It's way below than expected ..

    Update: Last reading for me tonight here at Wootton Bridge , now -3.4 c 

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by wightwootton

    11 minutes ago, john mac said:

    Just seen something on the GFS. Why does it stall the low east of Scotland at 84-110hrs. There is nothing to stop it . Interesting 

    Exactly my thinking john, perhaps its picking up another signal they may revert to what we were seeing 2 days ago on the charts!! and that perhaps there is a chance the east / north east winds will come back in to play on 18z / 0z!!

    The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by wightwootton

    1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

    Met Office graphics for Saturday's snow risk not too dissimilar to the Aperge.

    mo1.jpg

    mo2.jpg

    mo3.jpg

    a1.jpg

    a2.jpg

    a3.jpg

    To be honest the graphics from both the BBC and Met Office of late are very poor in quality. 

    Looking closely at these Met Office stills it almost looks like they've painted the areas of snow on manually to their graphics from what they are seeing (as an average snow area) from all the different models (GFS, ECM, UKMO etc) rather than relying on their own model prediction.

    Ideas?

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