Village
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Posts posted by Village
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The best thing they can do is tell us the truth.
That truth is that even having spent one billion pounds of tax payers money on a supercomputer in Exeter; they cannot ever expect to be able to predict our weather here one season ahead. Thats the hard facts of it.
They should be honest and say we still cannot forecast with any accuracy beyond ten days. I have proved over and over again that even I am better at it than they are, and I just use my own experience and brain. I predicted the floods this year one full month ahead of them while they were still predicting a drier than average April and summer ahead.
Why can I do this time and time again? Not because I am cleverer than they are ....no ...I am just not relying on a piece of junk in Exeter. They are overeliant on computers now and thats their problem, they seem to worship the dumb thing because I dont believe they understand its limitations. Computers are dumb. They only do repetitive actions of what they are told to do by a cleverer entity; ie; a person.
Until they understand this point then they will continue to be embarrased by the synthetic predictions churned out by the junk at Exeter without explanation.
They may aswell just say; 'COMPUTER SAYS NO!'
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Had dinner in Paris last night and the Eurostar punched through three batches of thunderstorms with torrential rain and lightning at about 5pm local time. The sky was clear blue at Calais and the Kent coast, but within a few km's inland in France there were towering Cumulonimbus cells which looked very aggressive. The bases had ragged shelf cloud and I could see one or two lowering areas it the base where there was potentially some rotation. I am sure I did see one or two funnels in the early stages but probably didnt make it.
In Paris it was mainly dry, just a few smatterings and flashes of lightning into the small hours. The main activity was to the north between Calais and Paris. It was fascinating screaming along at aircraft speeds on the ground and experiencing one storm after another within minutes. The cloud scene and aspects were changing every ten seconds or so. It was very warm and humid in Paris with temps around 26C.
Here are a few images from the train taken between Calais and Lille yesterday at about 4:30 pm local time.
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There was a pop group ten years ago which was all the rave. Wet Wet Wet
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Dont get conned, this country is not getting any warmer.
The rubbish run of cool, cloudy and wet summers goes on and on..
Only one flipside, I can pick up the phone and get the airconditioning maintenance guys to turn up at home within a week and its high summer!! Ten years ago you could forget it until September.
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Same Sahara precip in Essex overnight too. Its times like this when having a black car most definitely does show the dirt.
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I personally feel that there is little merrit in this and its basically a no-brainer to call +NAO from this far out. At very worst its no better than flipping a coin.
Heads positive NAO and tails negative NAO. Who goes first ?
Lets not forget that the default lends itself to a positive NAO, particularly when its been so long since the last that on a balance of probabilities a +NAO is long overdue.
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Summer 2012 ? are you sure?
What Summer?
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When there is so much moisture in the ground, its very unlikely to produce high temperatures. Too much of the infra-red waveband energy is used in the process of evapouration.
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To be honest, I think it's been warm in the last 20 years, but warming hasn't really happened. If you look at the graph and there really hasn't been any warming for about a couple of decades, just warm years on a level trend.
I agree, there is a great deal of merrit in what you say. If the last decade here in the UK has been getting warmer and warmer and 2010 the warmest on record.....something is wrong with the data, or its all being pumped up and exagerated.
Our climate here in the UK hasnt changed one bit as far as I am concerned....there are no stressed out species suffering from accelerated climate change, there is no runaway warming. If anyone wants to know the truth then just grab the temp records from 100 years ago and do a comparisson.
If you can spot a difference then good luck to you.
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If I can get a quote I think I am going to start selling rainfall in July for one month forward.
But dont expect that to mean that I think glorious summer is on the way!
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Cant still believe I have to wear full length gloves for cycling in June, they are normaly put away in April and only see the light of day again in early October, But this year its been every time I go out on the bike and this has been going on for two months apart from that week in May otherwise it feels like frostbite in your hands, I am sure other cyclist will agree(bottsford) .
The summers are getting cooler , I have been around 40 years and have seen a few, the last 5 seem the coolest i can remember , this year is even worse, and to rub it in the global warmists will rub facts in your face such as ' 2011 was the second warmest on record in the uk'
so what? not the summer
I agree, the global warming lobby are having a laugh. Its definitely cooler now than fifteen years ago.
Dont believe the official CET data either because its been manually adjusted. They take the raw data and then alter temperature sets to allow for the Urban Heat Island effect. In doing so the data can be manipulated. But the adjustment is inverse. Basically the temperatures in London have increased a lot over the past two hundred years, but the warmth is because the city of tarmac, bricks, cement etc is now massively larger today. The adjustment they decide to make to alter the real data is not enough to take account of the increase in buildings....therefore it registers as forever warming.
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Is it just me or does that chart clearly show a global cooling ano,mally taking place? It seems to be cooler almost planet wide with the exception of El Nino.
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I usually notice the difference in the evenings at the end of July. It tends to be darker half an hour sooner than now down here in the south.
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I read somewhere recently, someone from the Met Office asking what else should we expect, what with living where we do. I for one am not stupid, in that I don't expect day after day of 90 degrees Mediterranean style summer weather. But I would expect better than the way below average sunshine, way above average rainfall and below average temperatures that has been served up by this unflushable turd of a so-called summer month.
The answer to that Met Office worker who asked : "what else should we expect?"
Should have been.....warmer, drier and sunnier summers which the Met Office predicted we would all be enjoying due to persistently ever warming global temps! Its their dumb prediction they made almost twenty five years ago!
The so called experts told us to expect Mediteranean type summers within the first few decades of this century. Well what happened to that prediction!
Meanwhile in the real world here in the city, the warmest place in the country during mid summer its 15C, overcast, shwrs in the vicinity with a 20 mph stiff west, southwesterly blowing.
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The weather at Glastonbury had it gone ahead?
Heres, the link: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/73197-fed-up-with-overcast-rain-and-cold/page__st__220
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I started this thread because I was sick to the back teeth of overcast, rain and cold.
Well, that was well over six weeks ago and I am still fed up with overcast, rain and cold.
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yes, I have witnessed this before here in the UK.
It seems strange, but it happens usually when the storms are elevated and the folked lightning travels horizontally. I watched a storm for hours one July evening as it pushed up from France and there was lots of spidery fingers of horizontal lightning that fingered out ahead of the storm at anvil hight. No thunder whatsoever.
i have also seen Altocumulus congestus produce lightning from ice showers high above in summer and again....no thinder.
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More wind, cool, overcast and rain now already into the southwest.......this isnt summer and its not true this country is getting warmer....its rubbish....it is definitely cooler now that fifteen years ago. Our summers are awful. Infact they are not summers anymore.
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Hey all,
I'm just wondering why it's possible to have weeks on end of rain and low pressure systems, but when it comes to sun & warmth, it's hard to get it for a sustainable amount of time?
Obviously the position of the country doesn't help, but surely it's possible?
I created this topic as I really am fed up with the seemlingly endless unsettled theme! Even the Met Office do not seem confident of a warm up any time soon, and looking at the models, I can see why..
Hiya,
Yes it is possible to have sunny, dry and warm weather for a sustainable period of time.
The favourable synoptic set occurs far more frequently than most people think. However, out of the three variables the warmth part of the equation is the least likely to fall into place. The reason being that to experience a sustained period of sunny, dry and warm weather all at once we would only have a window of opportunity for about a third of the year. Two thirds of the year would not offer the warmth under favourable synoptics.
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I am doing well for thunderstorms so far this season....five to date.
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"UK may need standpipes if drought continues, environment secretary warns"
And to think, we rely on these people to know what they are talking about! What a difference just four weeks can make!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/may/02/uk-may-need-standpipes-drought
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But hey! look on the bright side.......Its been so dry we are in a drought situation and have hosepipe bans in force and ....Climate change has been bringing us warmer and ever warmer weather which is why we have to pay climate taxes to save the world from overheating, right!
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sick to the back teeth of this cool, cloudy, wet dross now, it feels like it gets worse every summer, sorry just needed a moan
though who knows july and august could be baking and we will look back on one of the best summers ever
then i woke up
SNAP!
I was standing outside the Banker Public House after work here in the City last night off Lower Thames Street and all five of us were wearing winter coats. After thirty minutes we had to go inside. It was cold, really horrible. At 5:30pm it felt like mid winter.
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its summer now
? who told you that?
Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Thanks for your support guys.
Its not just the Meto who is making this mistake, many industries have also believed the synthetic computer generated information and also failed. The Banking industry has done it. The insurance industry has done it. Airline pilots have done it and killed themselves and others.
Its time the Meto went back to the drawing board. I have done it and I can beat them hands down on longterm rainfall. Companies here in the City have limited me to only £10 per trade now because I took them to the cleaners. So its all aout using the computer to do the mundane work and then still doing the predicting oneself. The minute one starts believing in the computer predicting the future you may aswell add yourself to the idiot list.