Alan Robinson

Sorry Jon, but this stuff seems as controversial as Piers Corbyn. Wikipedia describes Landscheit as an author, astrologer, and amateur climatologist. I am okay with authors and amateur climatologists, but for me astrologers rank alongside Rudolf Steiner, and that means a charlatan or a comedian or someone given to superstition, divination and elaborate fantasies. Are we seriously to believe that Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Pluto exert gravitational forces on the sun that cause great fluctuations in solar irradiation? I see that Landscheit had a few papers reviewed, though I am not able to judge what that means. What does mainstream science have to say about this?

We had 7 degrees yesterday afternoon, and this morning I have just a few small patches of snow left in the garden. The sea is however still frozen between Tåsinge and Ærø. Think I'll take a stroll across to Marstal and save the ferry ticket..........................plop :wacko:

Generalizations are fraught with controversy. It is often simple to find an exception to the rule to discredit the proposition. Regarding animals being able to make better long-range weather forecasts than us, I personally don't even think they know what tomorrow's weather is going to be like. Animals are like Samuel Johnson: they are happy to expect rain when the sky clouds over, and to expect sun when they disappear, at least during the day. Last winter was disatrous here in Denmark for our local population of whooping swans. I went for a long walk last April and found literally hundreds of dead birds that perished though starvation followed by exhaustion. If the survivors had any sense, you'd have thought this year they would have migrated further south, but no, by November we had a flock of about 200 whooping swans. Then came the snow. Fortunately, winds have caused severe drifting, and consequently there were some significant patches on rape seed fields where the birds could feed, and now we have a very efficient thaw. We won't see the same pitiful whooping swan deaths this year, but the birds have been very, very lucky, for it was a close scrape for a while.

I spent a year in Alblasserdam (several metres below sea level), and I am fond of the Dutch. I have to say though that, all things considered, peak everything, climate change, over-population, world economy, and the vast areas under sea level, well, the last place I'm going to pitch my tent is the Netherlands. Flooding could be a catastrophe in that country, and before it comes from the sea, it will probably come from within the continent.

Just out of interest, here is part of an article this morning from the Danish Meteorological Institute, concerning the use of statistics and probability in forecasting winter weather; my free translation: â€The two record-cold Danish winters (December, January and February) of 1938-40 and 1962-63 had both a mean temperature of -3.6 degrees. Neither however started with a freezing cold December as we experienced it in 2010. â€The mean temperature in December 1962 was just -0.6 degrees, and December 1939 as high as +0.6. The trouble came in January and February with -4.4 and -6.8 in 1940, while in 1963 it was -5.3 and -4.3. The long-term mean for these two months is however 0 degrees. â€If we can conclude anything from these terribly inadequate statistics, it must be that: 1. We have never yet experienced an extremely cold winter with three consecutive cold months 2. Two years out of three, extremely cold Decembers are followed by a cold January 3. Extremely cold Decembers are historically followed by a rather milder February 4. The record cold Danish winters didn’t start with a freezing December â€Historical data suggests that we are now at least half way through the harshest part of this present cold winter, and current medium range forecasts to some extent indicate milder conditions. â€The question is, of course, whether or not the weather takes any notice of such historical data. Probably not, but it will be interesting to see what develops………… ************************ Well really. If this is all state-funded meteorologists can dish up for us, I think I’ll start a subscription to Old Moore’s Almanac. After all, it is cheap at under three quid and better entertainment than this sort of psuedo science.

Now thawing

Gary, thank you, that was most informative. I am not sure what you mean about equations with more than one variable, Gauss was a wizard at it, and we now carry out finite element modelling as though it is nothing at all. I myself have no problem solving 3 equations with 3 variables by hand, and I have no doubt that given time I could do 10 or more. But I think I see your point. The business is highly complex. Did you have any thoughts about the elapsed time between harsh winters 1981 and 2009/10 and Hale cycles by the way? i don't see how the timescale fits.

First let me emphasize I know little of these matters, so I am not postulating any particular opinion. Reading through this forum's many posts, it seems many people consider solar activity a very significant factor in our weather, and I can understand that the energy affecting our atmosphere comes mostly from space, though a little must also originate within the planet. I therefore looked at accepted theory, and found that solar irradiation of the Earth's surface only varies by 0.5%. Sunspots darken the sun's disc, reducing certain emmisions, but other sunspot associated phenomena almost fully compensate for the darkening, which is why the total irradiation varies so little. I can understand that the quality of solar irradiation can change. Can someone please put this in a nutshell for me? Am I to gather that 0.5% variation in solar irradiation at ground level really causes so different winters as 2006, 2009/10/11? If the surface level irradiation varies so little, then so must irradiation of the stratosphere vary little too. One more thing I am struggling to understand, is that in Denmark where I live, 1981 gave the lowest ever recorded December temperature of -27.6, and December 2010 - that is 29 years later - we almost equalled that cold record . Now how does this deep cold fit in with solar cycles? I can't see it myself. Help appreciated.

Well, as weather articles go, this one by the Danish Met Institute about Greenland in 2010 is about as trivial as they come: http://www.dmi.dk/dm...t_paa_groenland My loose translation for those who are interested: While Denmark in 2010 was overall colder than normal, and Torshavn in the Faero Islands experienced an annual temperature slightly less than average, things were very different in Greenland. Excepting the far north east, DMI stations in Greenland have measured record-high temperatures in 2010. Additionally, many monthly and seasonal high temperature records going back to the 1870s have been broken. For just over a year, the atmosphere in our latitudes has exhibited a general pattern that brought Scandinavia and northern Europe very cold weather, while Greenland is mild. This pattern - which incidentally can change quickly bringing very other conditions – is named the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO. As the name implies, it is associated with variations in atmospheric circulation (distribution of large air masses) in the north Atlantic region. The NAO is defined as the difference in air pressure between the Azores/Lisbon and Iceland. It attracts attention because variations reflect systematic changes in the strength and location of weather systems. High (positive) NAO indices occur when a powerful Icelandic depression coincides with a strong Azores high, between which a strong west wind blows. During winter months, this situation brings cold weather to Greenland and eastern North America, while northwest Europe experiences mild conditions. Negative NAO indices – which have dominated this past year – bring opposite conditions. Variations in the NAO index er an important indicator of both actual weather conditions and regional climatic changes. ********************************************************* No mention of the stratosphere, Gulf Stream, sunspots, Nina and Nino I am afraid. The DMI does however stick its neck out with seasonal temperature predictions though, and back in November they said December, January and February would on average be 0.8 degrees warmer than than 1961-90. Seeing how December was about 6 degrees under 1961-90, and that ECMWF is predicting good westerlies the next 2 weeks, I am looking forward 7 degrees in February, so I can sow onions

Well I searched the rsarchive for slugs and nothing came up, so he can't have mentioned them while his interpreter was around. It struck me he was silent about slugs because their antennae or feelers or whatever those stick-like things on their heads are go in and out. That puts Steiner on the spot, because according to him, cow horns have the curvature they have in order to direct the cosmic forces back into the cow, which needs lots of energy to digest all that grass they eat, particularly as they have two stomachs. Antlers on the other hand are shaped the way they are to disperse the cosmic forces from the deer into the sky. Seeing how slugs can move their horns like a cat does its claws, it is anyone's guess what slugs do with the cosmic forces. Best to avoid the subject perhaps. Interesting to see you are a professional gardener jethro. I suppose you know Steiner found out that red flowers are red because of Mars' cosmic forces, while yellow ones are yellow because of Saturn, and blue because of Venus?

There are those who would disagree with you Jethro, though not I. Rudolph Steiner's influence remains considerable, for example in biodynamic agriculture. They believe not only are farms organisms, but there are field spirits and gnomes. They indulge in occult practices thinking it leads to better crops. Biodynamics seems to me increasing in popularity, particularly in the USA and Australia, perhaps in connection with increasing awareness of peak oil. If you want to see Steiner's thoughts about the weather, here is a link http://wn.rsarchive....9240913p01.html Be patient if you read it, you'll find other interesting ideas. For example, according to Steiner, the invention of spectacles happened only recently because our ancestors had far better eyesight than we have, and therefore didn't need them. If in the distant past people had poor eyesight , glasses would have been invented far earlier than they in fact were, and I suppose mentioned in the Doomsday Book.

I've noticed that when the North Atlantic is passive, cold, dry Alpine air masses tend to slip down towards the Gulf of Genoa or the Gulf of Venice, and a small low forms. These depressions very often head off on a track taking their centre through the gap between the Alps and the Carpathian mountains, from where they track roughly north across Poland towards the Baltic Sea. Sometimes they stall east of Sweden, and that is when Denmark gets a northerly blast off Norway's Jotunheimen mountain range. Oddly enough, this winter so far has been influenced most by weak depressions of this sort from the Mediterranean Sea, while last winter, which was very cold in January and February, was dominated by high pressure over Finland and western Russia. This winter has been very snowy and December very cold, but the causes of two successive harsh winters are quite different in my view.

The maximum was 7.3 degrees, which was very short lived, somewhere on the North Sea coast I imagine. That is not extreme at all, and the record is 14.5 degrees in 1953 measured on the island of Fanø, just off Esbjerg. The minimum was -23 on Sjælland, just before Christmas Eve. That is rather close to the record minimum for December , which is -25.6, measured in west Jutland in 1981. The average extreme minimum between 1874 and 2010 for December is -4, so it is reasonable to say December's extreme minimum was very unusual.

Well, here's something from Rudolph Steiner about the weather. Please be patient if you read it, because he is far more prolix than I. It seems our ancestors had far better eyesight than us, otherwise spectacles would have been invented much earlier than they were. If you want to forecast the weather for the rest of this winter, consider how well sugar dissolves in your coffee, for the answer might well lay there. http://wn.rsarchive....9240913p01.html

Sorry Mr Freeze, I really ought not to have posted that, but as mentioned, I have become a keen vegetable grower these last few years. In my efforts to get the best out of my garden I try to anticipate the long-term weather. For example, if we had a winter like 2006, I could have fresh spinach right through from October to April, not to mention lettuce, fresh greens, and a kind of oriental brassica. Neither need I dig up parsnips and celeriac to put into storage. But a winter like this December one kills off everything except the hardiest leeks, land cress and hopefully my spring cabbages. Anticipating the long term weather is what this thread is about though, and I have found I am hopeless at it. With me it is pure guesswork, just like my bankrupted maths lecturer years ago who couldn't resist the bookmaker and casinos. He made decisions based on probability, and was usually wrong, with catastrophic consequences for him. That is why I now only make a categorical statement if the probability of an event is either 0 or 1. Anything in between is iffy. Back to gardening however, and I find there are people who believe the most incredible things. Biodynamics as far as I can tell involves some outrageous ideas, such as burying at the autumn equinox a cow's horn stuffed with the animal's own manure. It is supposed to concentrate cosmic forces into the handful of manure, which when correctly mixed in swirling water the following spring, diluted, and spread out over several fields - for it is said to be powerful stuff - makes for far healthier crops than otherwise. This stuff is known as preparation 500, but there are other preparations for other purposes I gather. These occult ideas are the result of four lectures delivered by Rudolph Steiner in 1924, who, though he knew diddley about farming or gardening, founded an extraordinary growers movement now known as Demeter. I doubt many biodynamic growers have read Steiner's original lectures, for who can possibly believe that it is cosmic forces from Mars that make runner bean flowers red? And saturn's forces that make cucumber flowers yellow? Or that cows' horns because of their curvature direct cosmic forces back inside the animal, while antlers spread the (supposed) rays into the sky Steiner held forth on all manner of subjects, and though I haven't looked into it yet - I shall soon - the weather is just the sort of thing he had esoteric and extraordinary explanations for. I personally find Steiner's ideas totally outrageous, and I grow organically without any hocus pocus. But I dare say the weather and climate are topics not fully understood by anyone, and until science makes advances in our knowledge, I'd say all seasonal weather forecasting involves a good measure of divination, hence my rather flippant post above.

I notice that there appears to be a slightly assymetric annual cycle in tropical stratospheric temperatures. There seems to me a minumum occurring about a month following both solstices in any one year, a lag in time that resembles our surface temperatures following the sun's declination in winter, though admittedly in the northern summer one would expect a peak, not a trough. It also looks as though the minumum following the December solstice is slightly lower than the one following that in June, though over a longer period that might not be the case. The pattern does though repeat itself no matter the temperature level relative to mean values, and the amplitude is always something like 15 degrees. Is there an explanation what causes this pattern, and why should the northern winter minimum be lower than the other? Isn't Earth closer to the sun in January than late July and August?

Now what does the Rest of the Winter hold for us? Well, I have done with probability once and for all, seeing how I forecast a mild winter based on the NAO index. Probability is the one branch of mathematics where the answers are often wrong, at least according to my (bankrupt) maths lecturer at Sunderland Polytechnic. No, I've taken up growing vegetables, and made the acquaintance of biodynamic growers and Rudolf Steiner's ideas. Now I'm into divination, and I cannot say whether augury or geomancy is more suited to knowing what is going to happen with the weather. Tell you what, I'll spread some mixture number 507 or whatever it is called, conjure up a field goblin, and get en exact answer for you all. Back in a tick....... http://cityfoodgrowers.com.au/bd507.php Oops, my valarian was picked in August.......now what?

'scuse my ignorance CC, but I thought the NAO is simply defined as the difference in surface pressure between Reykjavik and Lisbon, or is it Gibraltar still? What causes the NAO is a very different matter. I can grasp the concept of cause-and-effect, and so the observed pressure difference must play its part, but what is causing the pressure difference? Just out of interest, by the way, I first became interested in the NAO in November 2009, when my kitchen garden froze over and snow buried my spring cabbages and garlic. I read somewhere that the NAO was the cause. Consequently, I downloaded a whole cartload of stuff about the NAO, including a graphical representation of the index going back to the 1950s, when I gather records first began. I very crudely analysed the positive and negative durations and found quite a decent probability curve, which made me so bold as to predict the negative phase that began November 2009 would end perhaps May or June 2010, and certainly no later than September 2010. I also predicted that November 2010 to February 2011 would be under maritime influences, and therefore comparitively mild. What happened? Well, here in Denmark we've just had the coldest December on record, only paralleled by December 1981, and December 2010 was the sunniest December on record here. My spring cabbages, garlic, spinach and mini polutunnels over the Winter Density lettuce have only just emerged from the deep snow, and I've got egg all over my face and people calling me seer. And how right! My forecast was as wrong as it could be, and I dare say that experts in the field will confirm that this present NAO phase is totally unprecedented. The question is why? What has caused surface pressure to be unusually high near Iceland for an extraordinarily long time, while the Azores high seems to have beaten a retreat towards the equator? The NAO is a symptom of something else going on, and I'd like to know what, so I don't have to pull up withered cabbages every spring. EDIT; cabbages, not acbbages

A fellah down the road from me has solar panels on his roof. I know from chatting with him that they only work between April and September when his house is fairly warm anyway. On the other hand, there is an impressive solar heating system in Marstal, on the island of Ærø just south of us. it heats the swimming pool and provides 30% of the energy used in the small town's district heating system. They have addressed the energy storage problem using a 10,000 tonne reservoir. Here is a link, I'm sorry the thing is all in Danish, but on the other hand there are excellent pictures to give the idea http://wk.bakuri.dk/...chure-DANSK.pdf I dare not even think what the cost of this installation has been, but it must be enormous, and the meagre output compared to size says a lot about what is required when considering peak everything and our extravagant lifestyles. Incidentally, reading the link, it seems one year they had a problem of excess heat in the summer. Water in the system began to boil and the saftey valves popped open. First they tried smearing whitewash on the panels to reduce the heating, but as that didn't work, they turned to pumping water through the panels at night time so they acted as a radiator, thus cooling the reservoir. The Marstal plant exclusively feeds the town's heating system between May and October, and they welcome visitors.

I see December 2010 has been well debated on this netweather forum, and for us over here in Denmark it has been the coldest December on record with a mean temperature of -4, equalled only by December 1981. I’m not a great fan of the Danish Met Institute, but one thing they certainly do well is statistics. Perhaps some will find interesting some temperature facts from just across the North Sea. It seems to me record extremes and means come in fits and starts, and right now we setting records more frequently than is usually the case. The warmest December on record was 2006, with a mean of +7, while one day in January 2005 12.4 degrees was recorded. 2006 was particularly warm, with July averaging 19.6, October 12.2, November 8.1, and December 7 degrees. January 2007 went on to set the record at 5 degrees, while April 2009 was 9.4. August 1975 gave the highest August temperature ever in Denmark at 36.4, and October 1978 provided a day with 24.1 degrees. This was followed in 1979 by the coolest July on record, namely just 13.6, December 1981 gave a day with -25.6, and January 1982 the lowest ever single measurement for that month of -31.2 degrees. When considering these figures, please do take into account that Denmark’s greatest elevation is a pimple less than 200 metres above sea level, and nowhere is further from some description of coastline than, say, Lincoln. The DMI tends only to publish superficial data, and I suspect that statistical distribution curves for the information gathered is nothing like the bell-shaped normal distribution at all. We seem rarely to have average weather here. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the distribution curves are in fact bi-modal. Take February for example, for which the minimum mean of -7.1 occurred in 1947, and the maximum mean of 5.5 in 1990. Considering extreme values, March 1888 gave a reading of -27, and March 1990 gave +22 degrees, a difference of 49.2 degrees. If the span of time between 1888 and 1990 is somehow reduces the significance of this huge difference, then what about March 1965, in which month both -24 and +18.5 were both recorded, a massive difference of 42.5 degrees in the same month. As mentioned, record months seem to come in batches, and I’ve been reading with interest comments about fluctuating solar irradiation, Hale cycles and sunspots. I just wondered why we have just set new cold records for the first time in 30 years. Am I missing something?

Much obliged Weather Ship.

In the meantime , if I may, for i am certainly no expert on this matter, the second law of thermodynamics suggests to me that it is equatorial conditions that effect the poles. I am gratified that Lockwood seems to have something of the same opinion. Similarly, I suspect solar irradiation affects the QBO, which in turn effects the trade winds, and consequently the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Drift etc. I look forward to reading comments from those with more insight than I.

I say Weather Ship, that is a most impressive reply, and I am grateful. If Cmaniac can correct you, then I really have my work cut out in sorting chaff from grain. Nonetheless, in the interest of comprehension, I fail to see how satellites can acurately establish temperatures and pressures at particular altitudes in the stratosphere. I am sure it can be done, but just how and which satellites are concerned is far beyond me. You don't suppose that satellite data is sent down to Earth, where people do the analysis do you? Otherwise, that is an impressive number of radiosondes you described. Could you please advise, or provide a link that explains the performance of such instruments? Please do not misunderstand me, I am not a troll, I simply want convincing evidence that we are not dealing with rubbish in and rubbish out, or inductive reasoning, which for very good reasons cannot be used for predicting the future. It is only 15 months since I started monitoring the North Atlantic Oscillation because of my kitchen garden, and based on historical (not historic!) data, forecast that we would have maritime weather in NW Europe between, say, August 2010 and February 2011. How wrong could I have been! By the way Weather Ship, I am a retired shipbuilder and naval architect, and have always taken great interest in eye witness reports from seafarers. Before I took higher education, I actually worked on the building of one of Denmark's icebreakers, Thorbjørn, and I can tell you it was a solid "piece of kit". I also helped design and build the four Danish patrol ships IS86, and went on sea trials in Disko Bay, where we broke 0.5m thick ice doing 5 knots. I shall not describe the paintwork afterwards. Thanks for the response, and looking forward to interesting exchanges, happy New Year Alan Robinson

I'd just like to know why the meteorological profession use hPa and Decametres. Haven't they heard of SI units . I would have been reprimanded many years ago as an engineering student if I had mentioned cm or perhaps written 1,467 N instead of 1.467kN.

First let me say well done to everyone contributing to this fascinating topic. I have learned quite a bit reading your ideas. Perhaps I can entice you to enlighten me further. I am sure it is covered somewhere in the thread, but as I can't find it, might I ask where all the basic data you use comes from. I do not mean can I have a link please, rather, how is the data actually collected, because it seems to me no mean feat. For example, do they use balloons, and if so, how many and how frequently? Or perhaps there are specialised aircraft that fly around from time-to-time? If so, how do they navigate, because I believe civilian GPS becomes increasingly unreliable at very high latitudes. Perhaps they use LORAN or some other parabolic system? Radar perhaps? It would also be interesting to learn how an aircraft's altitude is known in the polar stratosphere. Are satellites involved? I am not trained in these matters, but I cannot see how stratospheric pressures and temperatures at different altitudes can be ascertained from space. If satellites are involved, then in what way? I'd be much obliged if someone can describe these matters, as it will help me wholly accept what is seemingly a very important atmospheric phenomenon. Keep up the good work, and happy New Year