Alan Robinson

I have a whole colony of blackthorn trees encroaching on my garden from the north. They self-sow very readily, and have done for the privet hedge in one place. Now I rather like the blackthorn trees for their shelter, so do the birds, and I am inclined to let them have their own way to a certain extent. Therefore Coast, how do you make sloe gin? Isn't it just wine made from the sloes?

That is an interesting report weather ship. Having read it and turned it over in my mind for a while, my first impression is just how little we actually know about the oceans, and that their exploration is both time-consuming and expensive.

Blackberries, ah yes, they are what we Yorkshire folk call brambles - the berries and the plant itself. I pick brambles every year, and I understand there are several hundred different varieties, which explains the widely differing maturing times. I recommend rose hip jam, as SP says though, the seeds have to come out, and it is tedious work. One thing I have given up foraging for is fungi. I am afraid that the expectation of wild mushrooms surpasses their eating. Even Boletus edulis is an anticlimax, if you can find one without maggots that is.

I suspect The Lion must have had a remarkable effect on Mr Branson's sphere of interest. http://www.google.com/imgres?q=captain+condor&hl=da&sa=X&rlz=1R2GGLL_da&tbm=isch&prmd=ivns&tbnid=PIuh8eqfIM1WKM:&imgrefurl=http://www.dandare.org/dan/watson/Condor/condor.htm&docid=pjUS2a1Ir9-3eM&w=806&h=722&ei=PYpUTpWRNYrysga00aTmDw&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=684&vpy=75&dur=2127&hovh=212&hovw=237&tx=110&ty=130&page=1&tbnh=121&tbnw=135&start=0&ndsp=28&ved=1t:429,r:3,s:0&biw=1280&bih=717

Well today DMI have come up with this. http://www.dmi.dk/dm..._rke_og_skybrud_ The gist is that 21 different IPCC models predict a wide variety of scenarios, and there is a prediction to suit everyone's taste. I expect this will inflame the climate debate, which politicians here will welcome with open arms. They also report that, in fact, since 1991 summer precipitation has been steadily increasing compared to the previous 100 years. Furthermore, the magnitude of shorter downpours is also steadily increasing, and they infer that cloudbursts (a touchy subject for DMI in recent times) will increase in frequency. So much for the drier summers. Pressure has generally been somewhat below 101.3 kPa (as an engineer I stick to SI units ) and the weather has been wet. Just how long this has to keep up for the climate to be wet is perhaps a matter of convention. Regarding zonal winds, I am afraid I don't understand the term. If you mean something like "westerlies", then I can report that between June 2011 and today there have been a large proportion of westerly winds, though it is a remarkably long time since we had a gale. With respect to the NAO, my observation is that with the exception of this summer, negative indices usually bring high pressure over the Gulf of Bothnia and western Russia, giving us easterly winds here. When that happens in winter, lows usually form in the Ligurian Sea or Adriatic Sea, pass through the gap between The Alps and The Carpathians, tipping lots of snow on us. We have had such lows this summer, making things muggy, but it is complex frontal systems from the west that have given us so much rain this summer, not air from the Black Sea.

Just to be clear John, concerning longitude, is this supposed to be due to the distribution of land and ocean around the polar circle? The Norwegian Sea and Bering Sea divide Canada and Greenland from Siberia, is that it? If so, is there an explanation about the supposed mechanisms and how they are changing? I was wondering about prof. Lockwood's recent announcement that solar phenomena are probably responsible for the blocking highs near UK these last two winters.

DMI hasn't mentioned temperatures - probably because it is rain making all the headlines - but according to my own records we have mean temperatures someting like 2 degrees above the norm for 1961 - 1990.

Yeah, but their deity is female, and that might explain SP's comment.........though I doubt it.

Have you considered that SP might be a Wiccan?

'Dear pig, are you willing to sell for one shilling Your ring?' Said the Piggy, 'I will.' So they took it away, and were married next day By the Turkey who lives on the hill. They dined on mince, and slices of quince, Which they ate with a runcible spoon; And hand in hand, on the edge of the sand, They danced by the light of the moon, The moon, The moon, They danced by the light of the moon. Well we all know the moon is made of cheese, so gravity and accretion would certainly do the trick.

I cannot follow your reasoning SP, but never mind, I am slow with this sort of thing, and anyway, I only glanced at the article before closing the thread again, so I don't know just what she put in detail. I wasn't going to comment on the business, but now I am at it, I suspect the woman is either deeply disturbed, or mischievous, or both.

I have heard several times that global warming and the climate trends these last few years would for us in northern Europe result in 1) hotter, drier summer summers 2) wetter winters The general development would be for precipitation to reduce in summer and increase in winter. Can anyone please explain to me why summer 2011 is now set to be the wettest summer in Denmark since records began in 1874? http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/sjaskvaad_sommer GW, I used to follow the NAO graphs closely, but I've given up on it. For one thing, I did a statistical analysis of the durations of positive and negative phases, and got what I thought was a decent probability curve for the various durations. On that basis I predicted that winter 2010 - 2011 would be fairly mild with a high proportion of westerly winds. How wrong could I be! You are correct, the NAO stayed negative, and apart from a few weeks of positive in May 2011 (or there abouts) it has remained stubbornly negative. The odd thing is, I thought -ve NAO was supposed to be associated with continental type weather, and +ve indices occur with maritime weather. Well, the NAO has remained negative, and here we are in Denmark about to break the record books for summer rain! Continental weather would have given us drought. Another thing, I don't quite understand the -ve index. As often as not these last few months when I have seen surface pressure charts it has been low at Reykjavik, and high over the Azores - correct - hence the heavy rain we have had. Pressure has of course been low over Spain, which presumably affects Lisbon, and might well affect the way they work out the NAO index from day-to-day. Whatever, I pay the NAO index not the slightest credence any more.

Well here in Denmark they count June, July and August as summer. The Danish Met Office announced today that given the outlook for the rest of this week, 2011 is the wettest Danish summer on record, that is, since 1874. Certainly, my rain gauge has recorded almost 350 mm of rain in these three months. http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/sjaskvaad_sommer My first question is, given the remarkable amount of rain we've had this summer, why didn't any long range forecast predict exceptional precipitation? As far as I know, there was nothing in the media suggesting we would experience unusually high rainfall. My second question is, given this record rainfall, what are to make of climate predictions for hotter, drier summers and wetter winters? This is hardly the time for record wet summer if the rhetoric is to be belived! Thirdly, Croatian Weather, I don't quite follow your reasoning about the NAO. I thought a negative index is supposed to accompany continental type weather patterns. We here haven't had continental type weather at all; the rain has come down in buckets and we've had a high proportion od winds from the western quarter.

Nice graphics Ledders, but it is hardly new information is it? Mariners have known for centuries that ocean currents are highly complex, mixing and merging, strengthening and weakening, setting this way and that. I'd like to see a similar simulation of the Southwest Monsoon in the north Indian Ocean. That would be spectacular, particularly around Socotra island; and not forgetting that the currents change fundamentally within less than six months. For the time being, my view is that people are aware of these phenomena, but we are a long way from fully understanding them, their causes, interactions and their effects.

Isn't it a little like the idea of time travel Mike? If exotic civilizations could traverse the cosmos, wouldn't we have spotted them by now?

http://www.dmi.dk/dm...remtidens_klima Despite the lovely Peer Gynt photograph on the glossy cover, I don't like brainwashing children with controversial ideas. This new Danish book on the climate is apparently intended for children age 8 or more. It is written in short sentences so they can follow the message, and the last few chapters describe what everyone can do in their daily lives to "prevent global warming getting out of control". Maybe this forum needs a thread somewhere concerning national cultures. The UK has its problems alright, and we are not bashful about it. What we don't seem to understand is that some European cultures do not have the concept of self-criticism, and take it for granted that The State knows best. My guess is this explains why Danes are sometimes hailed the happiest nation on earth; The State will protect us from the wicked world, and all we have to do is follow blindly into Neverland.............and that is not Nederland!

Provided it is not caveat emptor, with me as emptor, I shall not lose sleep over it.

Nah, it was Jon Kent larking about with a laser to harass pilots heading for Heathrow.

18 is a bit specific Pete. The best I can come up with is that something like one in five thousand British males and females die between age 15 and 24. Now assuming someone destined to die like this saw TV 24 hours a day, 365 days a year for 18 years (leap years ignored) - from birth - that person would - to answer your question using the arguments you queried - peg it at 17 1/2 years old at the best..............but then I am sure you could have worked that bit of arithmetic out yourself The funny bit is that kicking the bucket at 17 1/2 years old precludes watching TV 24 hours a day for 18 years. Maybe the business needs a bit of calculus, and an allowance for sleep, getting bored with TV, adolescence, grumpy parents......

I am sure you noticed it was Prof. Oeshger in Bern that made the ad hominem argument in his letter. BornFromTheVoid; thanks for the link http://www.ferdinand...jaworowski.html. I was amazed that I couldn't find anything on the internet opposing Jaworowsky's views. This at least is a start, though I should have thought there might be far more widespread condemnation of Jaworowsky, if indeed he is so completely wrong. Nonetheless, as I do not fully understand all the reasoning and arguments, and neither do I have the time and inclination to delve so deeply into it, where does this leave us? It seems Oeschger is totally at odds with Jaworowsky (along with Segalstad and Hisdal, who were Jaworowsky's co-authors). With apparently little common ground between the opposing arguments, is it not reasonable for we laymen to conclude that the whole business of ice core data is controversial? I might just add that during my career in engineering, I was appointed several times what is called an "Expert Witness" to the High Court. I was astounded, more than once, to read and hear the statements of other Expert Witnesses, who very clearly spoke out of turn, and beyond their own area of competence. In such civil action, it was in those days normal that both Plaintiff and Defendant each appoint their own experts. Due to whole teams of experts being called upon - thus drawing cases out interminably - legislation was passed limiting each party to just a single expert witness, and due to experts putting forward distorted evidence on behalf of their clients, the rules concerning expert evidence had to be changed. This resulted in experts having to consult other experts, and act as a sort of spokesman, only that does not work properly when being cross-examined by a QC in front of the Judge, and the expert fails to answer by saying "I am sorry, but that is beyond my particular expertise". These days, experts make a solemn declaration to the Court that they understand their duty is to the Court, meaning that they must not put forward the views of whoever hired them in the first place. Now these "experts" are normally members of prestigious professional institutions, have strings of letters after their name, and rely on reputation to give credence to their (sometimes) distorted, partisan evidence. Nonetheless, I have seen more than one such expert neglect to advise the judge just where his or her area of expertise ended, and they very willingly went on to give faulty and misleading evidence, purporting to have full understanding of the issues. I am convinced this is the case with climate science experts. There are so many specialist areas that would take a lifetime to become expert in. The only difference between my High Court experiences and the global warming debate, is that it is you and I who take the place of His Lordship.

In the news huh? Gray Wolf, I am still waiting for the news that Jaworowsky, Segalstad and Hisdal were wrong back in 1991. http://www.co2web.info/np-m-119.pdf This paper has no fewer than 9 pages of references to scientific institutes and respected publishers. It states categorically that ice cores do not represent the atmosphere in the past, and that the oceans could absorb ALL the CO2 from ALL the existing oil reserves without atmospheric CO2 concentrations doubling. It states categorically that the atmospheric CO2 readings from Hawaii are from a spot just 25 km or so from the world's most active volcano, and just 3km from an earth físsure through which belches huge amounts of CO2. If the Norwegian Polar Institute - who published the paper - has not been refuted since 1991, I'd just like to know why so many scientists persist using ice core data to argue that human emmissions of CO2 will have disastrous consequences. Nobody can dispute that Actic sea ice is diminishing. Nobody can dispute that the Earth's infrared radiation causes CO2 in the atmosphere to radiate some back at us again. What can be disputed is the way some scientists have chosen these last twenty years to ignore the findings of their eminent colleagues and predecessors, and without refuting their work, publish findings that are based on dubious methods. It ought to be in the news that someone, somewhere, has proven Jaworowsky wrong. Until it is, I think we can all take the anthropgenic global warming argument with a grain of salt.

The Danish equivalent of the BBC reported earlier today on CEEFAX that Norwegian archeologists were over the moon. Apparently, some unnamed spot in Norway, more than 2000 m above sea level, the ice has finally melted, revealing a superbly preserved iron-age settlement. The artifacts include clothing, shoes, utensils, and parts of buildings. Now I was in rather a hurry when I read this, and decided to get further details later today, but to my great surprise, I see this afternoon that the CEEFAX page has been deleted, there in nothing on Danmarks Radios website, and nothing on Norsk Ringkastning either. Totally inexplicable. I say, I don't suppose someone has complained about making this public, or am I becoming influenced by those conspiracy people?

Well I had a mooch about this island yesterday in the pouring rain, and with some effort I did manage to spot a single horse chestnut tree that is beginning to turn colour. Autumn here is the time when, statistically, we get most precipitation, and yet June, July, and the first third of August 2011 are all far wetter than the average autumn. This summer will go down in the record books as wet, wet, wet!

Well now the discussion enters yet another specialist area, namely, speculations on what ocean currents might be manifest in a region where, in our experience, has no water at the surface, and furthermore, in a climate quite different to the one we experience. What experimental data can science have in this repect? Is it just another "thought experiment", a bit like Maxwell's demon that was dreamed up to refute the Second Law of Thermodynamics? It is less than 1500 nautical miles from, for example, Yenisey Zaliiv (72N 80E) to the Wandel Sea (82N 20W), and with no ice and a period of blustery easterlies blowing, it is very conceivable that larch from N Russia could reach N Greenland in less than 2 months.

Well larch and spruce are both highly resinous materials, and in fact, the further north its origin, the more resin it tends to contain. Resin makes the timber impermeable to water, and it is for this reason that larch is a highly prized timber for fishing boat hulls in the far north. It lasts for decades, and is little troubled by rot, because the timber remains "dry". For what its worth, I built my house of softwood from above the Arctic circle in Sweden, and it still oozes resin here and there from time to time. I would be very cautious about swathing statements that freefloating wood sinks after a few months. Reflect also that if the wood sinks so soon, it can hardly remain at the surface and become embedded in ice, now can it? Yet another consideration is the drift in question. The combination of wind and current can easily carry a piece of driftwood 50 nautical miles in a day, which is 1500 miles in a month, and 3000 miles in two months if the conditions are favourable.