richie3846
-
Posts
957 -
Joined
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by richie3846
-
-
marky810 I did see some PWS readings of 50 to 60mm on the east coast so I think it may be correct
-
So with an Amber warning now issued, why isn't this labelled as a storm, and given a name? We've discussed previously that it's only an amber that needs issuing, and it doesn't have to be for wind. Confused
.
-
CryoraptorA303 lord knows indeed, because I don't! This system is as wet as an Atlantic system, I don't get it. The only reason I can think of is the humidity over much of Western Europe yesterday was rather high, so maybe the moisture was already there, ready to dump on us once it reached cooler air. It's rained here solidly for 18 hours now, and we aren't even in the warning area.
-
danm it appears that the data is interpolated, so it's a best guess for areas between stations.
-
danm I'm not sure how they extrapolate the data. This is gridded data, so not possible to be based on weather station data. I'll try to find out. My suspicion is it's based on radar data.
-
Monthly Precipitation Observations 1991-2020 12km
CLIMATE-THEMETOFFICE.HUB.ARCGIS.COM
Monthly averages of precipitation amount (mm) for 1991-2020 from HadUK gridded data (v1.1.0.0), provided on a 12km British National Grid (BNG). This...I've clicked on a grid in north west London, and one further east. The differences are massive, 699mm, 604mm. I've not checked any more but these grids weren't that far apart. It seems that within London over the last 30 years, there indeed has been a large variability in rainfall totals.
-
Arch Stanton interesting that Hampstead has similar values to Swindon, which is considerably further west of course. Met office stations are very far apart, so these select sites don't really represent the local micro climates. Marlborough amateur (records since 1986) weather station just a few miles to the south of Swindon, has about 15 to 20 percent more rain that Swindon, yet isn't represented by any met office site.
-
CryoraptorA303 we're around 30mm in this region, so below average is still possible here also. It doesn't look like we will bear the brunt of this system.
danm I wish I screenshotted the rain forecast yesterday, for Wednesday. In politics it would be knows as a U-turn. The revised forecast a few hours later had suddenly moved 150 miles west.
-
CryoraptorA303 Oh yes thanks for the reminder, very little in common then.
-
CryoraptorA303 I'm trying to remember back to that rainfall last year, or the year before, which ended up with 2 red warnings being issued for Eastern Scotland? I seem to remember it was a similar system? I really can't remember clearly enough.
-
CryoraptorA303 Met Office don't agree with us:
:
-
CryoraptorA303 met office have upgraded it now, it looks horrendous for the north and east. I still can't see how it can be as bad as they say, it doesn't seem plausible. I reckon it'll be a nowcast job.
-
CryoraptorA303 is this for Wednesday? The met office has it mostly out to sea, and what there is looks fairly patchy anyway, just a bog standard bit of British drizzle.
-
raz.org.rain my gut feeling says that we still get too much rain in the high sun months, April to September, to meet the classification of Csb. It appears the definition is less than 30mm per month.
-
1
-
-
Localised thunderstorms yesterday evening caused some localised flooding in nearby countryside to the north and west of Swindon. I recorded just 3.3mm on my PWS, yet just a few miles away in the village of Wanborough, people were clocking up to 37mm on their PWS's. Luckily the worst affected areas were rural and the main town was less affected. Really slow moving with some thunder too. White Horse Vale also had a good hammering, but again, the torrential rain was highly localised while down the road had a little.
-
Was expecting 15c with heavy rain, and got a dry day with some sunshine, reaching around 20c. So far this week has been pleasant, so it feels like the decent week last week has basically carried over into a second week. This is especially the case because the rain on Monday didn't happen till overnight, and was clear by 6am Tuesday morning. I'm sure in other areas such as London, it hasn't felt quite as pleasant and settled. I'm loving May so far, it's fabaroony.
-
3
-
-
Back in the day, we had national and regional forecasting for the day and a few ahead, and that was about the limit of the detail. None of this hour by hour analysis of every single location in the UK. IMO, weather forecasting apps are giving people a false impression, that forecasting is actually capable of the level of detail offered by the apps. The amount of detail offered in the hour by hour spot forecasts is beyond the capacity of accurate forecasting at the moment. Yes, sometimes it's right, but as soon as there are showers, or uncertain cloud levels etc, the whole thing falls apart.
Lay people seem to get really bogged down in the detail. 'Oh, I thought it was meant to rain at 4pm' type thinking, with no clue of the underlying mechanisms of how weather forecasting and uncertainty works. I'd go as far to say that the creation of hour by hour forecasting for spot locations was a mistake, and it's creation preceded the underlying ability for accuracy.
-
In Absence of True Seasons i reckon you'll have something bright and possibly sunny to enjoy late afternoon and evening. The whole system is shifting to the west and it's taking a lot of the cloud with it. We'll be seeing a reversal in fortunes, with me stuck under thicker cloud and possibly drizzle, and you warming up in the early evening sun. Could be wrong, but that's what the current cloud radar is hinting at currently.
-
1
-
-
In Absence of True Seasons I wouldn't write this afternoon off quite yet. The rain looks set to clear London, and if it's already 15c, it won't take much for it to feel like it does here at the moment - very pleasant indeed.
-
It's not entirely clear if we're going to get this rain today. It's pleasantly warm with a thin veil of cloud/hazy sun, around 18c. It's remarkable how summery this month is feeling. Even on a day like today, it's warm in Swindon, and feels like summer even though it's not clear blue.
-
SunSean I suppose we also then have to look at the number of cool days and add those up also to get a fair measure using a 20c yardstick. What could be a suitable low number? Days below 15c or something like that?
-
Scorcher very good point. Frosts are common in early May, even in warm spells, and when the winds turn cold again, after a warm spell, it's cool day and night. It's a month which has its fair share of heat spikes, but general warmth over most of the month is not common. I think this is why so many people find May disappointing in some ways, probably as variable as April with the strong sun and cold seas.
-
1
-
-
Scorcher possibly because the Atlantic loses its power, so to have a May with no cooler winds at some point, is a freak occurrence. We're only halfway through the month and given the historic data, a cooler spell is very likely.
-
Back on topic, I posted this information in another thread, and am posting it here also, because more people visit this thread, and it's highly topical given the extreme weather event we've just lived through over the last 8 months.
Extraordinary numbers from the environment agency. Saturated ground at the end of April for many, even in the south. I suspect some places along the south coast are still saturated even now, with the recent heavy rain.
-
4
-
Moans, ramps and banter
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I didn't realise it had been so wet in the home counties, crazy considering the average is probably sub 50mm for the month.