richie3846
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Posts posted by richie3846
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3 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:
How did the human race survive up to now without warnings?
We survived the bubonic plague, modern outbreaks are much less lethal with modern medicines etc, and also allows us the joy of not having most of our friends and family killed by disease. These disease controls are probably similar to weather warnings in a way. A more pleasant way to enjoy life, with all those we love still with us, living and breathing, instead of squashed.
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5 minutes ago, A Face like Thunder said:
Just a thought but isn't there another very deep low lurking in the Atlantic with our name on it? Darren B seemed to want to hide it on the forecast last night and certainly didn't comment on it. Or is it one that will merely add to the foul weather we have been experiencing recently?
On a recent broadcast by the met office, they said it won't be as wet and windy, so less of a concern.
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1 minute ago, ANYWEATHER said:
People will die with warnings or not
Yes of course, but without warnings, people will not be aware there is a danger, and then the death toll would be much higher. The red warnings with Eunice undoubtedly saved many lives. Many trees came down, that's the fact. The more people under those trees there are, the more will die. Those warnings give people a chance to assess the risks, some may do a better job than others of course, but overall, the warnings for the more severe events, will inevitably save lives, with the only costs being a small amount of disruption, normally for a single day of missed school or work.
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4 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:The problem is we live in a nanny state. My parents were brought up in the 1947 and 1963 winters, they just gritted their teeth and got on with it , today’s generation are being brought up a bunch of wussies, not being allowed to make their god given right of their own decisions. Makes me wonder how the human race has survived up to now. No wonder common sense is lacking into days society ,
I'll just remind you that 17 people were killed by Eunice, and that was with a lot of people not going out. There's a statistical chance that if we all went out in big storms, more people would die for no reason other than trying to be brave or strong, trying to Impress, instead of authentic and smart.
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20 minutes ago, sheikhy said:
Just to add after all the talk of gfs moving north in regards to tomorrows storm!well guess what king model ecm stuck to its guns with the southern extent of the storm and gfs has moved fully toward it on the latest gfs 06z!!so back to a more extreme southern and eastern coastal event in terms of the strongest of winds!!
I've found it remarkable how close all the models have dealt with this storm. There have been discussions about the track, but in reality there's been very little disagreement between the main models. As the days have ticked by, the modelling has barely changed at all, in terms of pressure, position, and timing.
All of the models could be wrong of course, there is still time for last minute changes which could throw everything off course I guess.
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7 minutes ago, sunnijim said:
Updated fax clearly shows that Exeter now have the Low 100 miles or so further Nirth than ideas of 24hrs earlier.
Marginaly deeper at the same time too ( filling slowly) or steady pressure as it exits.
LATEST below.
24hrs ago thoughts
I don't believe this is the case. What's changed in this graphic, to my eyes, is the rate of progress through the UK, and not the position. The second image has the low further west, suggesting a slightly later arrival than the first image. I believe the track is basically the same, and hasn't changed overnight, because it's been the case for a few days now, that the low enters via the Bristol Channel and moves sharply North East.
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Just now, Lakigigar said:
These are the records for all of the UK, but this is more to the south than those.
For all-time records:
Lowest: 22 November 1865, Dolgellau, North Wales 944.8 hPa.
Lowest: 8 December 1886, Stonyhurst in Lancashire, where the barometer fell to 940.4 hPa.
It's also possible that the 19th century records aren't in the database.
Great Storm of 1987 got down to 953 hPa in the North Sea. And the 2000 storm named cyclone Oratia reached 941 hPa according to peer review data but that one was more to the northeast with the record set on sea (and not officially recorded, but reconstructed).
Record low pressure of February 25th 1989 | Wanstead Meteo
WANSTEADMETEO.COM
The low pressure system that brought widespread rain and snow on Wednesday reminded me of another event where very low atmospheric pressure...If this document is correct, this is another notable low pressure, interesting that it happened only 16 months after the 1987 storm.
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Met Eireann forecast as 'massive bomb cyclone striking Ireland' with possible hurricane force winds - GalwayBeo
WWW.GOOGLE.COM
Storm Ciaran could cause a very 'severe threat' across Ireland bringing 'ten days of chaos'I see it's not just the UK that has a problem with tabloid coverage. The journalistic style is shocking in this article, IMO. It's written intentionally to sound as scary as possible, ensuring the spiciest words and phrases are carefully selected for maximum worry.
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1 minute ago, Frosty hollows said:
Yep. Currently modelling shades of 1987
Just now, Thunders said:Just what we needed. Another storm set to remotely mimic 1987 and Eunice. Hopefully I get the day off if it’s gonna be that bad
My company didn't give us the day off for Eunice, even though we drive high sided vehicles, and work where there are trees also. I was day off anyway, felt really bad for my colleagues working through it. I'll be day in this time round, of it hits Thursday, I can't say I'm looking forward to that.
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Anyone reckon we'll see Thursday's storm named today? I'm expecting a broad sweep yellow warning to drop down later this morning. It looks like we are going to see a direct hit from a powerful Atlantic storm, with the models showing central pressure ranging from about 948 to 955mb, approximately.
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Trains are still cancelled at Swindon, including the main lines running between Swansea and Paddington. With the M4 shut yesterday because of a fatal accident, it really was an awful day for travelling in the area. There was quite a bit of disruption around the town and surrounding areas, I'm still a little bit annoyed we didn't even get a weather warning, when I had family snarled up in delays coming back from Cornwall, and separately, more family stranded half the day on train platforms trying to fight their way back to Swindon.
Top marks for the train operators who paid for a taxi back for the last leg, and provided a food voucher to use in the café at Chippenham station. With a young baby and an older child in tow, I can only imagine what a nightmare day they must have had.
There were quite a few local hotspots with flooding problems around the town. A quick check of local rain data, and we've received something like 11 inches in 35 days, compared to an average of around 2.5 to 3 inches.
There is now a small area from Swindon to Oxford, roughly running along the A420 corridor, that has received exceptional rainfall over the last 35 days, with Babet adding another month's worth of rain. The met office didn't see fit to issue is a warning, which I'm still puzzled by. The ground is completely saturated, with fields in Oxfordshire now spilling their contents over the roads in places such as Challow near Wantage, on the A417, and other prone areas. It feels like we've been overlooked, and hope the met office get a bit sharper over the next couple of weeks, with more rain to come, and a potential storm later next week. The amount of rain in the area has been really exceptional for us, and now we are particularly vulnerable to even moderate rainfalls in the next few weeks, and will continue to be vulnerable until we get a couple of dry weeks to allow things to soak through the system.
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Heavy overnight rainfall floods town roads and BLOCKS ALL TRAINLINES
WWW.SWINDONADVERTISER.CO.UK
Roads have flooded across Swindon after heavy overnight rainfall as a result of Storm Babet.50mm rain in 24h, and no weather warning? The ground is fully saturated in this area, and we've had another 35mm in a short few hours, flooding the railways for the second time in a week.
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Scottish Rainfall Data - provided by Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA)
WWW2.SEPA.ORG.UK
Rainfall data for Scotland.I'll leave this link here for anyone interested in rainfall totals for this unusual storm.
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We've clocked up 20mm, on already well wetted ground. I suspect many others in southern England have enjoyed the same today.
I suspect we could see an amber warning in the south, depending on the exact track, for Friday.
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3 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:
It has landed and we've had 1.6mm in the last hour down here under Babet outer bands.
There could be quite a bit more over the next 3 hours or so. I've noticed that rain from the south is often poorly modelled. It's often a case of radar watching.
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12 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
It's certainly not what was forecast.
Heavy rain was supposed to start circa 4am. There's only been a few bits & pieces of drizzle.
Hold your horses! The heavier stuff is about to land.
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2 minutes ago, Nick L said:
Indeed. I do forecasts for Network Rail and it's all hands on deck updating them this morning. Could see 50mm through London and the SE. Should be warned IMO.
They are probably sorting through the detail as we speak, for England. Give them another half hour, I think we'll have our warnings in place.
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4 minutes ago, Nick L said:
...surely they're about to issue something for NE England at the very least?
I'd think they'll also issue southern England - Friday now has substantial rain, further West than was thought yesterday. These warnings reflect soil moisture, and many areas are wetter than average for the time of year.
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5 hours ago, alexisj9 said:
The met covers England Scotland and Northern Ireland. So have named a storm, and warned a storm in the UK, and yes actually eastern England is also gonna get a lot of rain.
As a Welshman, I'm now highly offended by this.
. What I meant was that the naming is mainly because of impacts in Scotland this time round. Without the heavier rain in Scotland, I doubt it would be named because of yellow warnings in England.
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On 15/10/2023 at 09:58, knocker said:
Abstract
Climate models predict a weak poleward shift of the jets in response to continuing climate change. Here we revisit observed jet trends using 40 years of satellite-era reanalysis products and find evidence that general poleward shifts are emerging. The significance of these trends is often low and varies between datasets, but the similarity across different seasons and hemispheres is notable. While much recent work has focused on the jet response to amplified Arctic warming, the observed trends are more consistent with the known sensitivity of the circulation to tropical warming. The circulation trends are within the range of historical model simulations but are relatively large compared to the models when the accompanying trends in upper tropospheric temperature gradients are considered. The balance between tropical warming and jet shifts should therefore be closely monitored in the near future. We hypothesise that the sensitivity of the circulation to tropical heating may be one factor affecting this balance.
Thanks for this link, it's really interesting. The authors indicate that this information may not be reflected in current climate models, and may impact regional climate modelling as a result.
Reading between the lines, perhaps our UK climate modelling is not accurate at all, because a north shifted jet may not be in the modelling.
This study throws a spanner in the works for anyone who thinks that climate science is 'settled'. A phrase I've heard used more than once. Changes in the position of the jets, may have an enormous impact on large populations, especially in Europe where many people live with the ever changing jet position, day in day out.
40 years is a really short timescale, so who knows if this information is a reflection of what may happen next.
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1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:
No it really is gonna drop a lot of rain.
In England? I thought the main job was over Eastern Scotland
11 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:The East of Scotland does not get flooded every year because it's East of the mountains. 9
The amber warning appears the reflect this reality, that the east of Scotland is quite dry normally
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25 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:
‘The boy who cried wolf’ comes to mind. Do we really need yet another yellow for heavy rain? Is this not just another bog standard autumnal low pressure system for England?
I don't think we need yellow warnings at all. Dump those, and simply go straight in at amber when required.
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Warm sea anomalies where the storm is tracking at the moment. No wonder there's a lot of rain due for some.
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1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:
With I think.
So this is really confusing to my pea brain
. If there is some sort of wind, even if it's not that strong, heavy rain on amber triggers a name, while even heavier rain, with slightly less wind, simply because it's not around a cyclone, isn't named.
There could even be a situation where stronger wind not around a cyclone, with heavy rain doesn't get a warning, and less wind around a cyclone, with the same rain, gets a warning.
No wonder people are confused by it all.
Storm Ciarán
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
They are spot on including the rain, which is problematic for many. We've some localised flooding for the 4th time since September, in Swindon and surrounding rural areas. A yellow warning was well deserved. We haven't lost the trains through Swindon this time thankfully. There has even been a landslide in Liddington near Swindon, but I don't have any more details yet.