richie3846
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Posts posted by richie3846
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In Absence of True Seasons https://environment.data.gov.uk/flood-monitoring/assets/demo/index.html
I took a quick look at a random sample of data in the wet areas today. Surrey was hammered, with several places recording over 40mm. Greater London very evenly spread generally between 8 and 12mm.
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Very pleased with the weather today. It looked like a day of Russian Roulette, a washout in the south east yes, but over this way it was clearly one of those days where the forecast wasn't going to cut the mustard. A wait and see job. Some very light drizzle cleared this morning, and while it wasn't very sunny, there was some at least some sun, and cloudy was light in nature, right up until about 330pm when we had a small shower. Temps around 17c, it felt pleasant in the light winds and light cloud.
I was expecting a washout day, the radar showed some rain aggressively approaching from the east early on, but it didn't quite make it this far.
I did feel for the South East folk, the radar looked rotten down that way.
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Metwatch thanks for the heads up. I've just switched to the new way and it's very different to the previous forecast. The app was completely useless for Swindon. I don't know what caused it, but basically almost every day from April to October, 3c needed adding on to the temps and 1c taking off Brize Norton. Also, apparently Swindon was the cloudiest place on the planet, and often in clear blue conditions, the app would still say cloudy. There was a day this week where the forecast still insisted it was 13c when it was closer to 17c. The new forecast does now seem to resemble what is likely to happen this coming week with pressure building.
A couple of months ago I fed back to the met office because they were putting out forecasts with 6c difference between Brize Norton and Swindon. I travel every day around Oxfordshire, north Wiltshire and east Gloucestershire, and I'm certain beyond doubt that Swindon and Brize Norton are virtually the same temperature on average, less than 1c difference. I started turning to the BBC for a more accurate reflection and just using the met for rain radar. I'm very pleased to see they are sorting this sort of problem out with their new calculations. One would expect the main boys in the business to be the gold standard. Their location forecasts haven't been anywhere near gold standard in recent times.
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It looks like the south may escape with just a smattering of drizzle today. Not too bad for anyone with plans, and should still feel fairly mild in the mid teens. I'm not very trusting of the detailed forecasts in this sort of borderline situation, where it may stay dry or may be slightly heavier than forecast.
I'll be keeping an eye on the radar before deciding to venture out this afternoon
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Bristawl Si the rain band seems to be a fair bit further south than expected. I'd say in this area we won't clear it during daylight hours, and we were expecting a dry afternoon. 10c may be the max. Can't see Bristol doing much better tbh.
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Atmogenic if you saw the numbers of far East folk who lap up the sights at Bibury in the Cotswolds, you'd probably be mystified. They come by the coach load, every day, and don't appear to care what the weather is doing. Cameras always in hand, they clearly love the place. At any one time in the tourist season (which seems to be most of the year there), there are hundreds of far East travellers mooching about the quaint village.
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SunSean it doesn't surprise me to see Oxfordshire towards the top of the English sites for April and YTD. It's not been as bad in this area as it has for most. Brize Norton recorded only 5 hours less sun than last April, so it wasn't quite the doomfest some suffered. We had a fairly sunny 2 week spell in the middle of April which recorded most of the sunshine for the month, giving an impression that we had some sort of fine and dry spell.
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https://environment.data.gov.uk/flood-monitoring/assets/demo/index.html
Taking a browse of the data, several rain gauges around the Taunton area have clocked up around 35mm already this month.
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Wynn D Woo Bluebells came out very early, and had their staying power extended by a cool off. Some were out at the end of March if I remember correctly, with many early April. They seem to be very temperature sensitive, which makes sense because they survive by doing their business before the trees come into leaf. Without the cool off I'm sure they'd be mostly finished by now.
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Andrea I thought the 850s shared in previous posts would translate to some decent warmish conditions for early May. The sun is strong now, so good weather can produce warm days in average air masses.
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Alderc 2.0 it looks like that might switch around for Friday, with east Anglia getting its share of rain, and the south west seemingly far away from all that. There seems to be a mix of weather for all this week, which I think helps people in some way. Last May when west was best, I seem to remember a large handful of members in the East, were pretty close to going totally insane!
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Not too bad here at the moment, it might not last, but if I get a cup of tea out in the sunshine for a bit, that's a good day.
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Scorcher my mum down in Swansea is fuming. Two days of utter carp.
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Was expecting a cloud up by now in Swindon, so this is a pleasant surprise. Warm enough for t shirt too.
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Western England looks more likely to enjoy some sunshine tomorrow. It felt quite cold today, I was as far east as Abingdon, and with so much cloud and wind, I needed my winter hat most of the day. Temps were held back, 13 to 14c, not remotely warm in the strong breeze, and only sporadic sunshine.
Definitely better than any day last week though!
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I remember Atlantic 252 met office recently issued their week ahead forecast. 20c Thursday and 18c Friday for the south. No sign of 10c maxes (yet
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stainesbloke zero sun here today. Persistent cloud feeding in from the west. I'd take 11c and sunny
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I'm struggling to remember a rain event as heavy as this, in previous Aprils. It seems to continue the theme since October, with rain events on the heavier side. Browsing environment agency data over breakfast this morning, many sites near to me have recorded 30 to 40mm over 2 days. I'm sure this story will be repeated elsewhere, judging by the radar images on the met office app this morning.
https://environment.data.gov.uk/flood-monitoring/assets/demo/index.html
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B87 given the thickness of the cloud, will it be the second day this week stuck at 9c? We're 7c at the moment. I suggested a return period of 4 to 5 years for a day this cold in the last third of April. 2 in a week I think would be very rare indeed. I appreciate it's only 1:40pm so there is still some time to warm up to say, the dizzy heights of 10c here and 11c London
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SunSean that's exactly why I only look a day or two ahead! Until something comes within the 3 or 4 days window, it's not even worth looking at IMO. So many people here, totally justified, are seeking something better, and then see a few runs showing something better, and then get heartbroken the next day. With a broken heart, this then sets the new cycle of seeking off again, and then people can find themselves in a toxic loop of hope and heartbreak. It's a bit like online dating
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Summer8906 it's interesting that the late trees, especially ash, are now probably going to leaf fully, around the average time, in early May to mid May, WAY behind the trees which were more responsive to the early season warmth.
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Alderc 2.0 sorry to hear that. I'd like to see a ban from these scooters and electric bikes on shared footpaths. They are too fast, simple as. Roads are different because there are established rules, but on these shared areas, idiots are bombing straight through without taking into account walkers will not be walking in straight lines or looking for traffic.
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ANYWEATHER Benson is a well known frost hollow and is not representative of the south in general. I've attached night temps for Brize Norton. Same county, and much more accurately represents the general area, unlike Benson.
Not an air frost in sight.
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stainesbloke frost damage is becoming a regular problem for the continent. Mild start to spring followed by continental frosts in April. Toxic combo for the growers of delicate fruits.
I'm predicting an large increase in UK wine production. We're benefitting from early spring warmth also, but our late season frosts are not as severe as the continent, and are usually well within the limits of mitigation. This April is a great example of this. We've had a cool airmass yes, but most of the south has barely had an air frost. We could do grapes with that setup.
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Moans, ramps and banter
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by richie3846
CryoraptorA303 yeah sorry that's my lack of geographical knowledge
. In my head Surrey is anywhere south of London, oops.
A crazy amount of rain, fully saturated ground in the south east in May has got to be once in a century sort of event, at least before climate change began meddling with our rainfall patterns!