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onlyME

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    Severe Tropical Cyclone Bune

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    Looking good and closing to hurricane strength

    Advisory

    Tropical cyclone (tc) 19p (bune), located approximately 260 nmsoutheast of Nadi, Fiji, has tracked south-southwestward at 05 knotsover the past six hours. Animated multispectral satellite imageryindicates a consolidating low-level circulation center (LLCC) withdeep convection surrounding the well-defined center. Animated watervapor imagery depicts improving outflow, especially over the westernsemi-Circle. A 240654z ssmis image also supports a consolidatingsystem with tightly-curved banding wrapping into the center andmultiple convective bands over the eastern semi-Circle. The currentposition is based on a 240538z ssmis as well as the 240654z ssmiswith good confidence. The current intensity is based on Dvorakestimates of 45 knots from pgtw, knes and abrf. Tc 19p is trackingslowly southward along the western periphery of the low- to mid-level subtropical ridge and is expected to maintain a generallysouthward track through tau 72. Near tau 72, tc 19p is expected toturn southeastward and to accelerate ahead of an approaching deepmidlatitude shortwave trough. The bulk of the dynamic models supportthis track to include ukmo, GFS, GFDN, ECMWF and WBAR, althoughthere is poor agreement between the models. The NOGAPS model is thesole outlier with an unrealistic westward track through tau 120 thatsomehow steers the system westward despite the deep trough diggingto the system's south. The ukmo and GFDN models have indicated awestward to southwestward track through tau 72 but have beenshifting eastward over the past few runs. This forecast ispositioned on the eastern edge of the aids envelope closer to theGFS and ECMWF solutions, which appear more realistic. Peak intensityhas been increased to 75 knots by tau 72 due to generally favorableconditions to include favorable SST, low to moderate vertical windshear and good outflow. After tau 72, tc 19p is forecast to beginextra-tropical transition (ett) as it interacts with the barocliniczone associated with the aforementioned trough. Tc 19p is expectedto complete ett by tau 120. Maximum significant wave height at240600z is 15 feet. Satellitesp201119sat.jpg

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